The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model     

Phuoc Khac‐Tien Nguyen  Lloyd Hock‐Chye Chua 《水文研究》2012,26(19):2878-2893

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Influence of anthropogenic pressure and seasonal upwelling on coral reefs in Nha Trang Bay (Central Vietnam)          下载免费PDF全文

Konstantin S. Tkachenko  Temir A. Britayev  Nguyen H. Huan  Mikhail V. Pereladov  Yuri Y. Latypov 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(5):1131-1146

The growing coastal development, dredging and dumping activities, overfishing and expansion of marine cage culture in Nha Trang Bay (NTB) of Central Vietnam since the beginning of the 2000s have resulted in a dramatic decrease of live coral cover. Surveys conducted in April–May 2013 and the same period in 2014 revealed that with an increase in distance from the outer part of the bay towards the mainland, the rivers’ influxes and dredged areas, coral cover decreased from 75% to 0.6% and species richness from 63 to 5, while the abundance of macroalgae increased from 0% to 56%. These changes correlate with differences in the concentration of suspended sediments on the same gradient. The abundance of the crown‐of‐thorns starfish Acanthaster planci and of the echinoid Diadema setosum significantly increased between the first estimation in 1998 and the survey in 2014, from 0 to 1.7 individuals (ind.) per 100 m^?2 and from 50.8 to 94.5 ind. per 100 m^?2, respectively, contributing to coral loss and intensive bioerosion of the reef framework in the bay. The large sizes of adult colonies of tabulate Acropora on the remote stations with negligible sedimentation and eutrophication loads were inconsistent with the assumptions that temperature‐induced coral bleaching or cyclones could be the major impacts in Nha Trang Bay. Analysis of the 16‐year thermal history of the bay did not reveal any instances in which the coral thermal bleaching threshold had been exceeded up to the present study. Seasonal upwelling, which occurs annually in the vicinity of Central Vietnam, may contribute to mitigation of thermal anomalies within NTB and to the maintenance of healthy coral communities on the remote reefs with relatively low anthropogenic impact.  相似文献   

Using radon-222 to study coastal groundwater/surface-water interaction in the Crau coastal aquifer (southeastern France)     

Adriano Mayer  Bach Thao Nguyen  Olivier Banton 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(7):1775-1789

Radon has been used to determine groundwater velocity and groundwater discharge into wetlands at the southern downstream boundary of the Crau aquifer, southeastern France. This aquifer constitutes an important high-quality freshwater resource exploited for agriculture, industry and human consumption. An increase in salinity occurs close to the sea, highlighting the need to investigate the water balance and groundwater behavior. Darcy velocity was estimated using radon activities in well waters according to the Hamada “single-well method” (involving comparison with radon in groundwater in the aquifer itself). Measurements done at three depths (7, 15 and 21 m) provided velocity ranging from a few mm/day to more than 20 cm/day, with highest velocities observed at the 15-m depth. Resulting hydraulic conductivities agree with the known geology. Waters showing high radon activity and high salinity were found near the presumed shoreline at 3,000 years BP, highlighting the presence of ancient saltwater. Radon activity has also been measured in canals, rivers and ponds, to trace groundwater discharges and evaluate water balance. A model of the radon spatial evolution explains the observed radon activities. Groundwater discharge to surface water is low in pond waters (4 % of total inputs) but significant in canals (55 l/m²/day).  相似文献   

Comparative modelling of laboratory experiments for the hydro-mechanical behaviour of a compacted bentonite–sand mixture     

A. Millard  N. Mokni  J. D. Barnichon  K. E. Thatcher  A. E. Bond  A. Fraser-Harris  C. Mc Dermott  R. Blaheta  Z. Michalec  M. Hasal  T. S. Nguyen  O. Nasir  R. Fedors  H. Yi  O. Kolditz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(19):1311

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Rare earth element fingerprints in Korean coastal bay sediments: Association with provenance discrimination     

Jeongwon Kang  Han Jun Woo  Seok Jang  Kap-Sik Jeong  Hoi-Soo Jung  Ha Gi Hwang  Jun-Ho Lee  Jin Hyung Cho 《Ocean Science Journal》2016,51(3):305-316

Rare earth elements (REEs: La-Lu) in surface sediments collected from the mouth and middle tidal flats of Gomso Bay, South Korea, in August 2011 and May 2012 were analyzed to investigate the fine-grained sediment provenance. The upper continental crust (UCC)-normalized light REEs (LREEs: La to Nd) were more enriched than the middle REEs (MREEs: Sm to Dy) and heavy REEs (HREEs: Ho to Lu), resulting in large (La/Yb)_UCC (1.9 ± 0.4) to (Gd/Yb)_UCC (1.4 ± 0.2) ratios. The monthly (La/Yb)_UCC values differed between the mouth and middle tidal flats due to deposition of fine-grained sediments that originated from distant rivers (the Geum and Yeongsan) and the Jujin Stream, located on the southern shore of the inner bay. We observed relative reductions in the (La/Yb)_UCC value and REE content in the sediments from the mouth of the bay compared with those from Jujin Stream sediments. Confined to the middle tidal flat around the KH Line of Jujin Stream, the sediments, most enriched in LREEs but depleted in Eu, were distributed in August as strong Jujin Stream runs. Here, we suggest that an increase in LREE/HREE and decrease in MREE/LREE ratios can be used as a proxy to identify the Jujin Stream provenance in mixed riverine sediments and to trace Jujin Stream sediments within the Gomso Bay tidal flat, especially in the summer rainy season.  相似文献   

Strategy of photo-protection in phytoplankton assemblages in the Kongsfjorden,Svalbard, Arctic     

Sun-Yong Ha  Doo Byoul Lee  Sung-Ho Kang  Kyung-Hoon Shin 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2016,34(1):1-12

Photo-protective functions were investigated in phytoplankton assemblages at Kongsfjorden, Svalbard in spring, using their UV-absorbing compounds (mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs)), xanthophyll pigments (diadinoxanthin (DD) and diatoxanthin (DT)) and < beta >- dimethylsulphoniopropionate (< beta >_-DMSP). The dominant phytoplankton species in the inner bay were dominated by Phaeocystis spp. and nanoflagellates, while the offshore waters were dominated by Thalassiosira spp. In the inner bay, UVabsorbing compounds and xanthophyll pigments exhibited higher ratios of MAA to chlorophyll a (MAA:chl a ratio), and both DD and DT to chlorophyll a (DD:chl a ratio and DT:chl a ratio), respectively. Thus, the photoprotective-pigments such as DD and DT appear to complement MAAs in the natural phytoplankton assemblage. However, the ratio of < beta >_-DMSP to chlorophyll a (< beta >_-DMSP:chl a ratio) did not show a distinct spatial distribution according to environmental factors or interspecies differences. In this study, we found that photoprotective compounds occurred in a manner dependent on the phytoplankton species composition in Kongsfjorden Bay, where Phaeocystis is the dominant species.  相似文献   

Correction to: Hydro-geochemical characteristics of the groundwater resources in the southern part of the Red River’s Delta plain,Vietnam     

Hoan V. Hoang  Lam V. Nguyen  Nhan D. Dang  Frank Wagner  Nhan Q. Pham 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(20):714

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Simplified formulae for designing coastal forest against tsunami run-up: one-dimensional approach   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Nguyen Ba Thuy  N. A. K. Nandasena  Vu Hai Dang  Norio Tanaka 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):327-346

In the present study, laboratory experiments were conducted to validate the applicability of a numerical model based on one-dimensional nonlinear long-wave equations. The model includes drag and inertia resistance of trees to tsunami flow and porosity between trees and a simplified forest in a wave channel. It was confirmed that the water surface elevation and flow velocity by the numerical simulations agree well with the experimental results for various forest conditions of width and tree density. Further, the numerical model was applied to prototype conditions of a coastal forest of Pandanus odoratissimus to investigate the effects of forest conditions (width and tree density) and incident tsunami conditions (period and height) on run-up height and potential tsunami force. The modeling results were represented in curve-fit equations with the aim of providing simplified formulae for designing coastal forest against tsunamis. The run-up height and potential tsunami forces calculated by the curve-fit formulae and the numerical model agreed within ± 10% error.  相似文献   

Flood-prone area mapping using machine learning techniques: a case study of Quang Binh province,Vietnam     

Luu  Chinh  Bui  Quynh Duy  Costache  Romulus  Nguyen  Luan Thanh  Nguyen  Thu Thuy  Van Phong  Tran  Van Le  Hiep  Pham  Binh Thai 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):3229-3251

Natural Hazards - Vietnam’s central coastal region is the most vulnerable and always at flood risk, severely affecting people’s livelihoods and socio-economic development. In...  相似文献   

Predicting rock size distribution in mine blasting using various novel soft computing models based on meta-heuristics and machine learning algorithms     

Chengyu Xie  Hoang Nguyen  Xuan-Nam Bui  Yosoon Choi  Jian Zhou  Thao Nguyen-Trang 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(3):101108

Blasting is well-known as an effective method for fragmenting or moving rock in open-pit mines. To evaluate the quality of blasting, the size of rock distribution is used as a critical criterion in blasting operations. A high percentage of oversized rocks generated by blasting operations can lead to economic and environmental damage. Therefore, this study proposed four novel intelligent models to predict the size of rock distribution in mine blasting in order to optimize blasting parameters, as well as the efficiency of blasting operation in open mines. Accordingly, a nature-inspired algorithm (i.e., firefly algorithm – FFA) and different machine learning algorithms (i.e., gradient boosting machine (GBM), support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian process (GP), and artificial neural network (ANN)) were combined for this aim, abbreviated as FFA-GBM, FFA-SVM, FFA-GP, and FFA-ANN, respectively. Subsequently, predicted results from the abovementioned models were compared with each other using three statistical indicators (e.g., mean absolute error, root-mean-squared error, and correlation coefficient) and color intensity method. For developing and simulating the size of rock in blasting operations, 136 blasting events with their images were collected and analyzed by the Split-Desktop software. In which, 111 events were randomly selected for the development and optimization of the models. Subsequently, the remaining 25 blasting events were applied to confirm the accuracy of the proposed models. Herein, blast design parameters were regarded as input variables to predict the size of rock in blasting operations. Finally, the obtained results revealed that the FFA is a robust optimization algorithm for estimating rock fragmentation in bench blasting. Among the models developed in this study, FFA-GBM provided the highest accuracy in predicting the size of fragmented rocks. The other techniques (i.e., FFA-SVM, FFA-GP, and FFA-ANN) yielded lower computational stability and efficiency. Hence, the FFA-GBM model can be used as a powerful and precise soft computing tool that can be applied to practical engineering cases aiming to improve the quality of blasting and rock fragmentation.  相似文献