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91.
This study aims to investigate and model driving forces that lead to increased fishing pressure and an altered state of the environment in the coastal areas near Samsun on the Turkish Black Sea coast. We have applied a modified DPSIR model to structure our investigation and analysis and have investigated the drivers that generate fishing pressure in the Samsun fisheries. The overall health of the ecosystem is declining, and there is a consistent trend of deterioration in the condition of the three major species targeted by the trawl fisheries. Although introduced invasive species have brought significant changes to the Black Sea, it is clear that the state of the environment is significantly and negatively affected by the pressure exerted by fisheries. Fishing pressure has to a certain extent been redirected to pelagic trawling as bottom trawling has become less profitable and a rise in catch capacity has levelled off. This reduction is, however, offset by an increase in illegal trawling and dredging by a very rapidly growing sector of multi-purpose small boats, resulting in a considerable increase in the overall accumulated engine power of fishing boats in Samsun during 2000–2005. Fisheries in Samsun, in particular sea snail fisheries, have constituted a frontier of sorts open to the poorer populations of Samsun during the last 20 years, and, thereby, constitute one of the major drivers for fishing pressure. We identify eight drivers of importance for the period 2000–2005. Although the authorities can impact all or most of those drivers, most of them are beyond the scope of conventional ‘fisheries management’. 相似文献
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A numerical investigation was undertaken to evaluate the response of dual structural systems that consisting of steel plate shear walls and moment‐resisting frames. The primary objective of the study was to investigate the influence of elastic base shear distribution between the wall and the frame on the global system response. A total of 10 walls and 30 wall–frame systems, ranging from 3 to 15 stories, were selected for numerical assessment. These systems represent cases in which the elastic base shear resisted by the frame has a share of 10, 25, or 50% of the total base shear resisted by the dual system. The numerical study consisted of 1600 time history analyses employing three‐dimensional finite elements. All 40 structures were separately analyzed for elastic and inelastic response by subjecting them to the selected suite of earthquake records. Interstory drifts, top story drift, base shears resisted by the wall, and the frame were collected during each analysis. Based on the analysis results, important response quantities, such as the strength reduction, the overstrength, and the displacement amplification factors, are evaluated herein. Results are presented in terms of displacement measures, such as the interstory drift ratio and the top story drift ratio. Analysis results revealed that the increase in the strength reduction factor with the amount of load share is insignificant. Furthermore, there is an inverse relationship between the ductility reduction and the overtsrength. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
95.
Landslide susceptibility mapping for a part of tectonic Kelkit Valley (Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey) 总被引:19,自引:1,他引:18
Considering damage to man-made structures by natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most important hazard after earthquakes. For this reason, a large-scale study titled Turkish Landslide Inventory Project, has been carried out since 1998. During this project, some special, susceptibility, hazard and risk assessments have been performed. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of tectonic Kelkit Valley in the north of central Turkey was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. To achieve the most appropriate results some sensitivity analyses were also carried out. For this purpose, four different data sets were constructed considering conditioning factors used and sampling strategies applied for the training data sets in this study. As a consequence of the analyses, the most proper outcomes were obtained by using the data set in which continuous topographical parameters and lithological dummy variables were implemented together and 50% of training data set was taken from seed cells at random. Correct classification percentage and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the validation data for that case were estimated as 84.16% and 0.36, respectively. This prediction capability shows that the landslide susceptibility map produced in this research paper can be used for the planning of protective and mitigation measures in the region. 相似文献
96.
Ecological risk assessment using trace elements from surface sediments of Izmit Bay (Northeastern Marmara Sea) Turkey 总被引:16,自引:0,他引:16
The aim of this study was to study ecological risk assessment of trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in Izmit Bay surface sediments in the <63 microm fraction. Sediment samples were collected from 8 sites along the north coastline of the bay. Samples were subjected to a total digestion technique and analyzed for major (organic carbon) and minor (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) elements. Sediments heavily contaminated are evaluated by the Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQG) of US EPA. The degree of contamination (Cd) is estimated as very high at each site. Two sets of SQGs, effect range-low/effect range median values and TEL/probable effect level (PEL) values were used in our study. Sediments from the each site are judged toxic when two or more of the PEL values exceed EPA guidelines. Our results are in agreement with previously reported sediment toxicity test results. 相似文献
97.
Ultrapotassic rocks in the Bucak area of Isparta Angle, SW Turkey, show unusually low SiO2 (46.8–49.2 wt.%) and high MgO (10.4–11.6 wt.%) contents, and lamproitic affinity (K/Na, > 2.5; Mg#, 73–75; Al2O3, 9.2–11 wt.%, CaO 7.4–10.6 wt.%, Cr, 525–675 ppm; Ni, 442–615 ppm). They are made up by phlogopite (30–40 vol.%), leucite (25–30 vol.%), olivine (5–20 vol.%), which rarely contain Cr-spinel, clinopyroxene (5–10 vol.%), sanidine (5 vol.%) and richterite, with accessory apatite, magnetite and ilmenite. One sample also include negligible sodalite in groundmass, which is unusual mineral in lamproites. Mineral phase variation and textures record discrete phases of pre-eruptive crystallization: (1) early appearance of (Cr-spinel-bearing) olivine, Ti poor phlogopite ± apatite at pressures of ca. 1.0–2.0 GPa, at or close to the lithospheric Mechanical Boundary Layer (MBL), and (2) later appearance of Ti rich phlogopite, clinopyroxene, richterite, leucite, sanidine, and other minor phases, at pressures of ca. 0.1–1.0 GPa, indicating discrete, pressure-specific fractionation events. The Bucak silica poor ‘leucite’ lamproites were probably generated by partial melting of phlogopite-bearing, refractory peridotite at pressures of ca. 1.5–2 GPa, higher than those proposed for SiO2-saturated ‘phlogopite’ lamproites (ca. 1–1.5 GPa) from Afyon, to the North. The depth (total pressure) of melt segregation probably dominates over volatile partial pressures (e.g. of CO2, F, H2O) in determining the SiO2-undersaturated character of Bucak magmas. 相似文献
98.
Susceptibility assessments of shallow earthflows triggered by heavy rainfall at three catchments by logistic regression analyses 总被引:11,自引:3,他引:11
Tolga Can Hakan A. Nefeslioglu Candan Gokceoglu Harun Sonmez Tamer Y. Duman 《Geomorphology》2005,72(1-4):250-271
Sometimes regional meteorological anomalies trigger different types of mass movements. In May 1998, the western Black Sea region of Turkey experienced such a meteorological anomaly. Numerous residential and agricultural areas and engineering lifelines were buried under the flood waters. Besides the reactivation of many previously delineated landslides, thousands of small-scale landslides (mostly the earthflow type) occurred all over the region. The earthflows were mainly developed in flysch-type units, which have already presented high landslide concentrations. In this study, three different catchments — namely Agustu, Egerci, and Kelemen — were selected because they have the most landslide-prone geological units of the region. The purposes of the present study are to put forward the spatial distributions of the shallow earthflows triggered, to describe the possible factors conditioning the earthflows, and to produce the shallow earthflow susceptibility maps of the three catchments. The unique condition units (UCU) were employed during the production of susceptibility maps and during statistical analyses. The unique condition units numbered 4052 for the Agustu catchment, 13,241 for the Egerci catchment and 12,314 for the Kelemen catchment. The earthflow intensity is the highest in the Agustu catchment (0.038 flow/UCU) and lowest in the Egerci catchment (0.0035 flow/UCU). Logistic regression analyses were also employed. However, during the analyses, some difficulties were encountered. To overcome the difficulties, a series of sensitivity analyses were performed based on some decision rules introduced in the present study. Considering the decision rules, the proper ratios of UCU free from earthflow (0) / UCU including the earthflow (1) for the Agustu, Egerci and Kelemen catchments were obtained as 3, 6, and 5, respectively. Also, a chart for the proper ratio selection was developed. The regression equations from the selected ratios were then applied to the entire catchment and the earthflow susceptibility maps were produced. The landslide susceptibility maps revealed that 15% of the Agustu catchment, 8% of the Egerci catchment, and 7% of the Kelemen catchment have very high earthflow susceptibility; and most of the earthflows triggered by the May 1998 meteorological event were found in the very high susceptibility zones. 相似文献
99.
Settling characteristics of soils carry great importance for geotechnical engineers since sediments properties are formed during the settling of soil particles in an aqueous environment. In this study, settling characteristics of kaolinite are investigated. Different ionic strengths of NaCl, CaCl2 and AlCl3 were considered as a function of pH in aqueous environment of varying solid concentrations. Factors affecting the settling characteristics and fabric of kaolinitic sediments have been identified. The results of the study reveal that kaolinite settles in either flocculated or dispersed forms depending on pH and ion concentration. Flocculated settling occurs in acidic pH due to formation of flocs in edge-to-face structure with increasing positive charges at the particle edges. Dispersed settling occurs in alkaline pHs when ionic strength is low. When ionic strength is increased in alkaline pHs, kaolinite particles settle in flocculated form. Furthermore, the results show that pH has a significant role on the final sediment thickness or void ratio of kaolinite. Densely packed structures in alkaline and loosely packed structures in acidic aqueous environments are formed depending on pH level. Results also show that as the solid concentration increases, the settling rate decreases due to buoyancy effect. Finally, the zeta potential of kaolinite is correlated with the final sediment thickness or void ratio of kaolinite as a function of pH. This correlation proves that there is a good agreement between zeta potential and the final sediment thickness or void ratio, especially when the soil is settled in a dispersed form. 相似文献
100.
Impact of complexity on daily and multi-step forecasting of streamflow with chaotic,stochastic, and black-box models 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hakan?TongalEmail author Ronny?Berndtsson 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):661-682
Despite significant research advances achieved during the last decades, seemingly inconsistent forecasting results related to stochastic, chaotic, and black-box approaches have been reported. Herein, we attempt to address the entropy/complexity resulting from hydrological and climatological conditions. Accordingly, mutual information function, correlation dimension, averaged false nearest neighbor with E1 and E2 quantities, and complexity analysis that uses sample entropy coupled with iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform were employed as nonlinear deterministic identification tools. We investigated forecasting of daily streamflow for three climatologically different Swedish rivers, Helge, Ljusnan, and Kalix Rivers using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR), k-nearest neighbor (k-nn), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The results suggest that the streamflow in these rivers during the 1957–2012 period exhibited dynamics from low to high complexity. Specifically, (1) lower complexity lead to higher predictability at all lead-times and the models’ worst performances were obtained for the most complex streamflow (Ljusnan River), (2) ANN was the best model for 1-day ahead forecasting independent of complexity, (3) SETAR was the best model for 7-day ahead forecasting by means of performance indices, especially for less complexity, (4) the largest error propagation was obtained with the k-nn and ANN and thus these models should be carefully used beyond 2-day forecasting, and (5) higher number input variables except for the dominant variables made insignificant impact on forecasting performances for ANN and k-nn models. 相似文献