A parallel ensemble-based framework for reservoir history matching and uncertainty characterization     

Reza Tavakoli  Gergina Pencheva  Mary F. Wheeler  Benjamin Ganis 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(1):83-97

We present a parallel framework for history matching and uncertainty characterization based on the Kalman filter update equation for the application of reservoir simulation. The main advantages of ensemble-based data assimilation methods are that they can handle large-scale numerical models with a high degree of nonlinearity and large amount of data, making them perfectly suited for coupling with a reservoir simulator. However, the sequential implementation is computationally expensive as the methods require relatively high number of reservoir simulation runs. Therefore, the main focus of this work is to develop a parallel data assimilation framework with minimum changes into the reservoir simulator source code. In this framework, multiple concurrent realizations are computed on several partitions of a parallel machine. These realizations are further subdivided among different processors, and communication is performed at data assimilation times. Although this parallel framework is general and can be used for different ensemble techniques, we discuss the methodology and compare results of two algorithms, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the ensemble smoother (ES). Computational results show that the absolute runtime is greatly reduced using a parallel implementation versus a serial one. In particular, a parallel efficiency of about 35 % is obtained for the EnKF, and an efficiency of more than 50 % is obtained for the ES.  相似文献   

Investigation of rock quality of Shirinrud dam site by engineering seismology     

Yousef Ghanbari  Hamid Reza Ramazi  Kaveh Pazand  Nooshin Madani 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(1):177-185

At this paper, we studied about the rock quality of Shirinrud dam site by engineering seismology. Shirinrud dam site is located 80 km far from Kerman and 18 km far from Hojadk village. The dam and its constructions are established in the Bidu Formation which consists of seven rock units, and the refraction profiles were surveyed on Jb_3/2, Jb₄, and Jb₅ rock units. To evaluate the rock mass quality and basement topography at this site, nine refraction seismic profiles by primary waves and two refraction seismic profiles by secondary waves were surveyed. We used some methods such as Palmer method, the reciprocal method, plus–minus method, etc. to process and interpret data. Based on investigations, primary wave velocity in unit Jb_3/2 varies between 2,100 and 2,200 m/s, in unit Jb₄ is between 2,100 and 4,200 m/s, and in unit Jb₅ is between 2,500 and 3,000 m/s. The Q values on these three units are 0.05, 1.2, and 1.9, and the rock mass rating (RMR) values are 27.1, 40.5, and 33.5, respectively. With respect to wave velocity, Q, and RMR values, the units Jb_3/2, Jb₄, and Jb₅ are evaluated as very weak, intermediate, and weak, respectively.  相似文献   

Prediction of drought in dry lands through feedforward artificial neural network abilities     

Hossein Bari Abarghouei  Mohammad Reza Kousari  Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(5):1417-1433

Drought is one of the most important natural hazards in Iran. It is especially more prevalent in arid and hyper arid regions where there are serious limitations in regard to providing sufficient water resources. On the other hand, drought modeling and particularly its prediction can play important role in water resources management under conditions of lack of sufficient water resources. Therefore, in this study, drought prediction in a hyper arid location of Iran (Ardakan region) has been surveyed based on the abilities of artificial neural. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in different time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 monthly time series) computed based on the data gathered from four rain gauge stations. After evaluation and testing of different artificial neural networks (ANN) structures, gradient descent back propagation (traingd) network showed higher abilities than others. Then, the predictions of SPI time series with different monthly lag times (1:12 months) were tested. Generally, drought prediction by ANNs in the Ardakan region has shown considerable results with the correlation coefficient (R) more than 0.79 and in the most cases and it rises more than 0.90, which indicates the ANN’s ability of drought prediction.  相似文献   

Evaluating sampling locations in river water quality monitoring networks: application of dynamic factor analysis and discrete entropy theory   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Milad Memarzadeh  Najmeh Mahjouri  Reza Kerachian 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(6):2577-2585

In this paper, a methodology is proposed for evaluating sampling locations in an existing river water quality monitoring network. The dynamic factor analysis is utilized to extract the independent dynamic factors from time series of water quality variables. Then, the entropy theory is applied to the independent dynamic factors to construct transinformation–distance (T–D) curves. The computation time in the case of using dynamic factors is significantly less than when the raw data is used because the number of independent dynamic factors is usually much less than the number of monitored water quality variables. In this paper, it is also shown that by clustering the study area to some homogenous zones and developing T–D curves for each zone, the accuracy of the results is significantly increased. To evaluate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed methodology, it is applied to the Karoon River which is the most important river system in Iran.  相似文献   

Assessment of bioclimatic comfort conditions based on Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) using the RayMan Model in Iran   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar  Ali Bagherzadeh  Taghi Tavousi 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2013,5(1):53-60

In this study thermal comfort conditions are analyzed to determine possible thermal perceptions during different months in Iran through the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). The monthly PET values produced using the RayMan Model ranged from ?7.6°C to 46.8°C. Over the winter months the thermal comfort condition (18–23°C) were concentrated in southern coastal areas along the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. Most of the country experienced comfort conditions during the spring months, in particular in April, while during the summer months of July and August no thermal comfort conditions were observed. In November coastal areas of the Caspian Sea had the same physiological stress level of thermal comfort as April. The map produced showing mean annual PET conditions demonstrated the greatest spatial distribution of comfortable levels in the elevation range from 1000 to 2000 meter a.s.l., with annual temperatures of 12–20°C and annual precipitation of under 200 mm. The statistical relationship between PET conditions and each controlling parameter revealed a significant correlation in areas above 2000 meter, annual temperature over 20°C and annual precipitation of 200–400 mm with a correlation coefficient (R ²) of 0.91, 0.97 and 0.96, respectively.  相似文献   

Geomorphological investigation of possible impact evidences for the crater-shaped structure of Zirouki in Samsour Desert, SE Iran     

Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar  Ali Bagherzadeh 《Earth Science Informatics》2013,6(4):241-252

Despite the extensive records on geomorphological studies in Iran, meteorite impact craters have so far not been considered in to account. Based on both remote sensing technique and field work we have recognized the circular structure of Zirouki crater in the Samsour desert, southeast of Iran, which if confirmed as an impact structure, would be the third impact structure candidate in the Middle East after the Wabar craters in Saudia Arabia and Jebel Waqf as Suwwan in Jordan. Geomorphological investigation of the possible impact structure of Zirouki crater was done based on multi criteria methodology including of geological, topographical, geophysical and petrographical studies. Among different studies, topographical investigation indicated that the crater shape morphology was quite obvious with a central uplift projection; as well geophysical pattern provided very strong evidence for possible impact structure, indicating the presence of circular negative gravity anomaly at the whole of the crater.  相似文献   

Assessment of drought hazard impact on wheat cultivation using standardized precipitation index in Iran   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar  Ali Bagherzadeh  Mahmood Khosravi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(11):4463-4473

The assessment of drought hazard impacts on wheat cultivation as a strategic crop in Iran is essential for making mitigation plans to reduce the impact of drought. Standardized precipitation index has gained importance in recent years as a potential drought indicator and is being used more frequently for assessment of drought hazard in many countries. In the present study, the calculated standardized precipitation index for 48 stations dataset in the 30-year time scale fulfilled 30 statistical matrices. The drought hazard index map was produced by sum overlaying the spatial representations of 30 statistical matrices and categorized into four levels of low, moderate, high, and very high, which demonstrated probability of drought occurrences of 10–20 %, 20–30 %, 30–40 %, and 40–50 %, respectively. Finally, after the general division of zonal statistics in drought hazard index map of Iran, major drought hazard zones were geographically classified into five zones. The statistical analysis showed a significant correlation (R ²?=?0.701 to 0.648) between drought occurrences and wheat cultivation including surface area and total production for these drought hazard zones.  相似文献   

Investigating the effects of lateral stress to vertical stress ratios and caverns shape on the cavern stability and sidewall displacements     

Abolfazl Abdollahipour  Reza Rahmannejad 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(12):4811-4819

Effects of lateral stress to vertical stress ratio on behavior of a cavern in various geomechanical and geometrical conditions were studied. Results indicated that the range of one to two lateral stress to vertical stress ratios was the best condition for cavern stability. The ranges causing tension and compressive failure were specified as well. Two-dimensional stability analyses were carried out by using Phase². Key point location on the cavern side wall was investigated and determined using an equation based on a large number of numerical analyses. Subsequently, in order to predict the elasto-plastic displacement and elastic displacement on a side wall key point, two equations were fitted based on various cavern cross sections considering four basic factors, i.e., rock deformation modulus, overburden depth of caverns, heights of the caverns, and the lateral stress to vertical stress ratio. The proposed equations were utilized to predict displacement at the key points of 10 projects subsequent to which the computation results were compared to in-site measuring results and back analysis results. Finally, using key point displacement as a stability factor, the effects of three different shapes of caverns including mushroom, horse shoe, and elliptical were investigated on cavern stability. The most optimum shape was elliptical in a vast range of lateral stress to vertical stress ratios; mushroom and horse shoe shapes were preferred in uniaxial stress fields concerning the rock quality.  相似文献   

A robust feldspar luminescence dating method for Middle and Late Pleistocene sediments   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jan‐Pieter Buylaert  Mayank Jain  Andrew S. Murray  Kristina J. Thomsen  Christine Thiel  Reza Sohbati 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2012,41(3):435-451

Luminescence dating is used extensively to provide absolute chronologies for Late Pleistocene sediments. Nowadays, most optical dates are based on quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). However, the application of this signal is usually limited to the last ～100 ka because of saturation of the quartz luminescence signal with dose. In contrast, the feldspar infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dose–response curve grows to much higher doses; this has the potential to extend the datable age range by a factor of 4–5 compared with quartz OSL. However, it has been known for several decades that this IRSL signal is unstable, and this instability often gives rise to significant age underestimation. Here we test against independent age control the recently developed feldspar post‐IR IRSL approach to the dating of sediments, which appears to avoid signal instability. A physical model explaining our observations is discussed, and the method is shown to be accurate back to 600 ka. The post‐IR IRSL signal is reduced by exposure to daylight more slowly than that from quartz and low‐temperature IRSL, preventing its general application to young (e.g. Holocene) sediments. Nevertheless, this new approach is widely applicable (feldspar of appropriate luminescence behaviour is even more ubiquitous than quartz). These characteristics make this a method of great importance for the dating of Middle and Late Pleistocene deposits.  相似文献   

A Non-Isothermal Constitutive Model for Chemically Active Elastoplastic Rocks   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hamid Roshan  Markus Oeser 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2012,45(3):361-374

Hydration/dehydration of water-active rocks under non-isothermal conditions is encountered in many industries, in particular the drilling industry. Water-active rocks can adsorb water on their basal crystal surfaces on both the external, and, in the case of expanding lattice clays, the inter-layer surfaces. There are two main mechanisms in which the instability may occur for a structure built in water-active rocks. First mechanism is the change in stresses resulted from mechanical, hydraulic, chemical and thermal interaction, which we formulate based on the concept of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Second mechanism illustrates the change in mechanical properties of the rock due to physic-chemical interaction between the rock and exposed fluid. We postulate the later mechanism in terms of chemically active plastic deformation by using the modified Cam Clay model. The complete governing equations for non-isothermal chemo-poro-elastoplastic rock are therefore presented. A three-dimensional finite element model is then developed to solve the obtained governing equations. From the numerical results, it was found that the effect of temperature coupling term on stress cannot be ignored when non-isothermal conditions are encountered. However, this effect is almost trivial on pore pressure. It was also revealed that the effect of change in the shale’s mechanical properties on stability due to physic-chemical interaction is as important as change in stresses due to mechanical, hydraulic, chemical and thermal interactions.  相似文献