Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario     

Mark Roelfsema  Hanna Fekete  Niklas Höhne  Michel den Elzen  Nicklas Forsell  Takeshi Kuramochi 《Climate Policy》2018,18(9):1103-1113

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

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Culture,demography and biogeography of sponge science: From past conferences to strategic research?          下载免费PDF全文

Christine Hanna Lydia Schönberg 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(2)

Perceived changes in the culture of sponge science and sponge conferences served as motivation for an evaluation of the sponge science community and research, over time and at present. Observed changes included a decrease in proceedings publications on sponge fossils and freshwater sponges, sponges from temperate environments, review papers and data syntheses, frequency of aquarium studies, and number of species investigated per publication. Publications on recent sponges, hexactinellids, calcareans, marine, Indo‐Pacific and warm‐water sponges increased, as well as the number of authors per publication and the proportion of field studies. Studies at the level of specimens and ultrastructure were gradually replaced by molecular approaches, but studies at the community level remained stable. The five sub‐disciplines morphology/taxonomy, phylogeny/evolution, physiology, ecology and faunistics also retained about equal proportions over time. Conference publications related to taxonomy, phylogeny and biodiversity prevailed, whereas those on management and conservation were rare, possibly because studies on sponge recovery, survival and mortality were also scarce. The community of sponge scientists has grown and become more diverse over time, presently representing 72 nations. The gender distribution evened out since the first sponge conference and presently favours women at early and men at late career stages. Although stated research interests are generally dominated by physiology and ecology, taxonomy and evolution are favoured after retirement. Sponge science has become more dynamic, but maybe also more competitive and less inclusive. We now face the dual challenge of safeguarding against the loss of some sub‐disciplines, and fostering the collaborative, helpful culture characteristic of sponge science.  相似文献   

Reproductive characteristics and steroid levels in the scleractinian coral Oculina patagonica inhabiting contaminated sites along the Israeli Mediterranean coast     

Armoza-Zvuloni R  Kramarsky-Winter E  Rosenfeld H  Shore LS  Segal R  Sharon D  Loya Y 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(8):1556-1563

In this study we compared reproductive characteristics and steroid hormone levels in the non-indigenous scleractinian coral, Oculina patagonica, inhabiting contaminated vs. uncontaminated reference sites along the Israeli Mediterranean coast. Our results indicate significantly higher steroid levels in both seawater and coral tissue samples from contaminated sites as compared to reference sites, suggesting that corals tend to accumulate steroids from the surrounding waters. Despite their higher steroid levels, corals from the contaminated sites showed reproductive potential comparable to those of the reference sites. Interestingly, a clear distinction could be seen between corals exposed to pollution for long vs. short durations, with the latter showing a failure to complete gametogenesis. This suggests that reproduction in O. patagonica is susceptible to acute rather than chronic stress. The involvement of adjustment/adaptation processes may explain this species tolerance, and may reflect the ability of O. patagonica to successfully invade new areas in the Mediterranean Sea.  相似文献   

Environmental change,hydromorphological reference conditions and the restoration of Polish Carpathian rivers   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bartłomiej Wyżga  Joanna Zawiejska  Artur Radecki‐Pawlik  Hanna Hajdukiewicz 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2012,37(11):1213-1226

In the twentieth century Polish Carpathian rivers were considerably modified by channelization and gravel mining, with significant detrimental effects to their ecological integrity, vertical stability of the streambeds and flood hazard to downstream river reaches. Restoration of the rivers is thus necessary to improve their ecological status and re‐establish geomorphic dynamic equilibrium conditions. Various approaches to defining hydromorphological reference conditions, proposed to date in river restoration literature, have serious deficiencies. In particular, environmental changes that took place in the catchments of Carpathian rivers during the twentieth century invalidate the historical state of the rivers as reference for their restoration. This is illustrated by a change from bar‐braided to island‐braided channel pattern that occurred in the past century in unmanaged sections of the Czarny Dunajec in response to a reduction in flow and sediment dynamics of the river. We indicate that reference conditions should be defined as those which exist or would exist under present environmental conditions in the catchment but without human influence on the channel, riparian zone and floodplain of the river which is to be restored. This assumption was tested through the evaluation of hydromorphological river quality of the Czarny Dunajec according to the European Standard EN‐14614. The evaluation confirmed a high‐status hydromorphological quality in an unmanaged channel section, which can thus be used as a reference for restoration of impacted river sections. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan - A regional programme of measures for the marine environment based on the Ecosystem Approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hermanni Backer  Juha-Markku Leppänen  Kaj Forsius  Jukka Mehtonen  Minna Pyhälä  Hanna Paulomäki  Tarja Haaranen 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(5):642-649

The Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan, adopted by the coastal countries of the Baltic Sea and the European Community in November 2007, is a regional intergovernmental programme of measures for the protection and management of the marine environment explicitly based on the Ecosystem Approach. The Action Plan is structured around a set of Ecological Objectives used to define indicators and targets, including effect-based nutrient input ceilings, and to monitor implementation. The Action Plan strongly links Baltic marine environmental concerns to important socio-economic fields such as agriculture and fisheries and promotes cross-sectoral tools including marine spatial planning. Due to complementarities with the European Union (EU) Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Action Plan is in essence a pilot for this process without neglecting the important role of the Russian Federation - the only Baltic coastal country not a member of the EU.  相似文献   

Exploring large wood retention and deposition in contrasting river morphologies linking numerical modelling and field observations          下载免费PDF全文

Virginia Ruiz‐Villanueva  Bartłomiej Wyżga  Hanna Hajdukiewicz  Markus Stoffel 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(4):446-459

Large wood tends to be deposited in specific geomorphic units within rivers. Nevertheless, predicting the spatial distribution of wood deposits once wood enters a river is still difficult because of the inherent complexity of its dynamics. In addition, the lack of long‐term observations or monitored sites has usually resulted in a rather incomplete understanding of the main factors controlling wood deposition under natural conditions. In this study, the deposition of large wood was investigated in the Czarny Dunajec River, Polish Carpathians, by linking numerical modelling and field observations so as to identify the main factors influencing wood retention in rivers. Results show that wood retention capacity is higher in unmanaged multi‐thread channels than in channelized, single‐thread reaches. We also identify preferential sites for wood deposition based on the probability of deposition under different flood scenarios, and observe different deposition patterns depending on the geomorphic configuration of the study reach. In addition, results indicate that wood is not always deposited in the geomorphic units with the highest roughness, except for low‐magnitude floods. We conclude that wood deposition is controlled by flood magnitude and the elevation of flooded surfaces in relation to the low‐flow water surface. In that sense, the elevation at which wood is deposited in rivers will differ between floods of different magnitude. Therefore, together with the morphology, flood magnitude represents the most significant control on wood deposition in mountain rivers wider than the height of riparian trees. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An approach to response-based reliability analysis of quasi-linear Errors-in-Variables models     

Witold Prószyński 《Journal of Geodesy》2013,87(1):89-99

The paper presents an approach to internal reliability analysis of observation systems known as Errors-in-Variables (EIV) models with parameters estimated by the method of least squares. Such problems are routinely treated by total least squares adjustment, or orthogonal regression. To create a suitable environment for derivations in the analysis, a general nonlinear form of such EIV models is assumed, based on a traditional adjustment method of condition equations with unknowns, also known as the Gauss–Helmert model. However, in order to apply the method of reliability analysis based on the approach to response assessment in systems with correlated observations, presented in the earlier work of this author, it was necessary to confine the considerations to a quasi-linear form of the Gauss–Helmert model, representing quasi-linear EIV models. This made it possible to obtain a linear disturbance/response relationship needed in that approach. Several specific cases of quasi-linear EIV models are discussed. The derived formulas are consistent with those already functioning for standard least squares adjustment problems. The analysis shows that, as could be expected, the average level of response-based reliability for such EIV models under investigation is lower than that for the corresponding standard linear models. For EIV models with homoscedastic and uncorrelated observations, the relationship between the average reliability indices for the independent and the dependent variables is formulated for multiple regression and coordinate transformations. Numerical examples for these two applications are provided to illustrate this analysis.  相似文献   

Winter Arctic Amplification at the synoptic timescale, 1979–2018, its regional variation and response to tropical and extratropical variability     

Hall  Richard J.  Hanna  Edward  Chen  Linling 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(1-2):457-473

We investigate winter Arctic Amplification (AA) on synoptic timescales and at regional scales using a daily version of the Arctic Amplification Index (AAI) and examine causes on a synoptic scale. The persistence, frequency and intensity of high AAI events show significant increases over the Arctic. Similarly, low AAI events are decreasing in frequency, persistence and intensity. In both cases, there are regional variations in these trends, in terms of significance and timing. Significant trends in increasing persistence, frequency and intensity of high AAI events in winter are concentrated in the period 2000–2009, with few significant trends before and after this. There are some decreases in sea-ice concentration in response to synoptic-scale AA events and these AA events can contribute to the decadal trends in AA found in other studies. A sectoral analysis of the Arctic indicates that in the Beaufort–Chukchi and East Siberian–Laptev Seas, synoptic scale high AAI events can be driven by tropical teleconnections while in other Arctic sectors, it is the intrusion of moisture-transporting synoptic cyclones into the Arctic that is most important in synoptic-scale AA. The presence of Rossby wave breaking during high AAI events is indicative of forcing from lower latitudes, modulated by variations in the jet stream. An important conclusion is that the increased persistence, frequency and intensity of synoptic-scale high AAI events make significant contributions to the interannual trend in AA.

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Sulfur speciation in natural hydrothermal waters, Iceland     

Hanna Kaasalainen  Andri Stefánsson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(10):2777-1903

The speciation of aqueous dissolved sulfur was determined in hydrothermal waters in Iceland. The waters sampled included hot springs, acid-sulfate pools and mud pots, sub-boiling well discharges and two-phase wells. The water temperatures ranged from 4 to 210 °C, the pH_T was between 2.20 and 9.30 at the discharge temperature and the SO₄ and Cl concentrations were 0.020-52.7 and <0.01-10.0 mmol kg⁻¹, respectively. The analyses were carried out on-site within ∼10 min of sampling using ion chromatography (IC) for sulfate (SO₄²⁻), thiosulfate (S₂O₃²⁻) and polythionates (S_xO₆²⁻) and titration and/or colorimetry for total dissolved sulfide (S²⁻). Sulfite (SO₃²⁻) could also be determined in a few cases using IC. Alternatively, for few samples in remote locations the sulfur oxyanions were stabilized on a resin on site following elution and analysis by IC in the laboratory. Dissolved sulfate and with few exceptions also S²⁻ were detected in all samples with concentrations of 0.02-52.7 mmol kg⁻¹ and <1-4100 μmol kg⁻¹, respectively. Thiosulfate was detected in 49 samples of the 73 analyzed with concentrations in the range of <1-394 μmol kg⁻¹ (S-equivalents). Sulfite was detected in few samples with concentrations in the range of <1-3 μmol kg⁻¹. Thiosulfate and SO₃²⁻ were not detected in <100 °C well waters and S₂O₃²⁻ was observed only at low concentrations (<1-8 μmol kg⁻¹) in ∼200 °C well waters. In alkaline and neutral pH hot springs, S₂O₃²⁻ was present in significant concentrations sometimes corresponding to up to 23% of total dissolved sulfur (S_TOT). In steam-heated acid-sulfate waters, S₂O₃²⁻ was not a significant sulfur species. The results demonstrate that S₂O₃²⁻ and SO₃²⁻ do not occur in the deeper parts of <150 °C hydrothermal systems and only in trace concentrations in ∼200-300 °C systems. Upon ascent to the surface and mixing with oxygenated ground and surface waters and/or dissolution of atmospheric O₂, S²⁻ is degassed and oxidized to SO₃²⁻ and S₂O₃²⁻ and eventually to SO₄²⁻ at pH >8. In near-neutral hydrothermal waters the oxidation of S²⁻ and the interaction of S²⁻ and S⁰ resulting in the formation of S_x²⁻ are considered important. At lower pH values the reactions seemed to proceed relatively rapidly to SO₄²⁻ and the sulfur chemistry of acid-sulfate pools was dominated by SO₄²⁻, which corresponded to >99% of S_TOT. The results suggest that the aqueous speciation of sulfur in natural hydrothermal waters is dynamic and both kinetically and source-controlled and cannot be estimated from thermodynamic speciation calculations.  相似文献   

Endogenous growth in channelized komatiite lava flows: evidence from spinifex-textured sills at Pyke Hill and Serpentine Mountain,Western Abitibi Greenstone Belt,Northeastern Ontario,Canada     

Michel G. Houlé  Sonia Préfontaine  Anthony D. Fowler  Harold L. Gibson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(8):881-901

Spinifex-textured sills (i.e., veins) characterized by komatiitic magmas that have intruded their own volcanic-piles have long been recognized. For instance, in the early 1970s, Pyke and coworkers, in their classic work at Pyke Hill in Munro Township, noted that not all spinifex-bearing ultramafic rocks formed as lava flows, rather some were clearly emplaced as small dikes and sills. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain spinifex-textured sills: intrusion into a cold host, filter pressing, or drainage of residual liquid. However, these do not satisfactorily explain the phenomenon. Field and petrographic observations at Pyke Hill and Serpentine Mountain demonstrate that spinifex-bearing komatiite sills and dikes were emplaced during channel inflation processes when new magma was intruded into a cooler, semi-consolidated but permeable cumulate material. Komatiitic liquids were intruded into the olivine cumulate rocks near the boundary between the spinifex and the cumulate zones of well-organized to organized komatiite flows. Spinifex-textured sills are generally tabular in morphology, stacked one above another, with curviplanar contacts sub-parallel to stratigraphy. Some sills exhibit complex digitated apophyses. Thinner sills typically have a random olivine spinifex texture similar, though generally composed of coarser crystals, to that of komatiite lava flows. Thicker sills exhibit more complex organization of their constituent crystals characterized by zones of random olivine spinifex, overlying zones of organized coarse spinifex crystals similar to those found in lava flows. They have striking coarse dendritic spinifex zones composed of very large olivine crystals, up to several centimetres long and up to 1 cm wide that are not observed in lava flows. Typically, at the sill margins, the cumulate material of the host flow is composed of euhedral to subhedral olivine crystals that are larger than those distal to the contact. Many of these margin-crystals have either concentric overgrowth shells or dendritic olivine overgrowths that grew from the cumulate-sill contact toward the sill interior. The dendrites grew on pre-existing olivine cumulate at the contact in response to a sharp temperature gradient imposed by the intrusion of hot material, whereas the concentric overgrowths formed as new melt percolated into the unconsolidated groundmass of the host-flow cumulate material. Spinifex-textured sills and dikes occur in well-organized to organized flows that are interpreted to have formed by “breakouts” above and peripheral to lava pathways (channels/conduits) as a result of inflation that accompanied voluminous komatiitic eruptions responsible for the construction and channelization of komatiitic flow fields. The spinifex-textured dikes and sills represent komatiitic lava that was originally emplaced into the channel roof during periods of episodic inflation that resulted in lava breakouts and was subsequently trapped in the “roof rocks” during periods of channel deflation. Accordingly, the occurrence of spinifex-textured sills and dikes may indicate proximity to, and aid in the identification and delineation of lava channel-ways that could potentially host Ni–Cu–(PGE) mineralization within komatiitic lava flow-fields.  相似文献