New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

Reconstructing hydrological variability from testate amoebae analysis in Carpathian peatlands     

C. Schnitchen  D. J. Charman  E. Magyari  M. Braun  I. Grigorszky  B. Tóthmérész  M. Molnár  Zs. Szántó 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(1):1-17

Peatlands offer the potential for high resolution records of water balance over Holocene timescales, yet this potential is under-exploited in many areas of the world. Within Europe, peatlands are mostly confined to areas north of 55° N, but several areas of southern and eastern Europe contain small peatlands which may be suitable for palaeoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper we test the potential of peatlands in the Carpathian region for deriving quantified estimates of water table changes using testate amoebae analysis. A training set for palaeohydrological reconstruction from testate amoebae assemblages was obtained by collecting surface samples from 13 peatlands, including 9 from Hungary and 4 from Transylvania (Romania). Using a simple measure of mean annual water tables estimated from staining of PVC tape, we found that some peatlands were heavily influenced by runoff and groundwater, and were therefore not suitable as modern analogues of ombrotrophic climatically sensitive sites. The relationship between the testate amoebae assemblages in the modern samples and the environmental variables was explored using CCA. The CCA biplot showed that the most important variables are depth to water table and moisture content, confirming that hydrology is a key control on taxon distribution. pH was a secondary gradient. A transfer function for % moisture and depth to water table was established and applied to fossil assemblages from a sequence from Fenyves-tető, Transylvania, Romania. The reconstructed water table shows a number of variations which have parallels with other palaeoclimatic records from Europe and the North Atlantic prominent phases of higher water tables are associated with the periods 8000–8300 cal BP, 3000–2500 cal BP and after 600 cal BP. We suggest that these were periods of particular intensification of westerly airflow which affected eastern Europe as well as western and central Europe.  相似文献   

The Removal of Dissolved Metals by Hydroxysulphate Precipitates during Oxidation and Neutralization of Acid Mine Waters, Iberian Pyrite Belt   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

J. Sánchez España  E. López Pamo  E. Santofimia Pastor  J. Reyes Andrés  J. A. Martín Rubí 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2006,12(3):269-298

This study examines the removal of dissolved metals during the oxidation and neutralization of five acid mine drainage (AMD) waters from La Zarza, Lomero, Esperanza, Corta Atalaya and Poderosa mines (Iberian Pyrite Belt, Huelva, Spain). These waters were selected to cover the spectrum of pH (2.2–3.5) and chemical composition (e.g., 319–2,103 mg/L Fe; 2.85–33.3 g/L SO₄⁼) of the IPB mine waters. The experiments were conducted in the laboratory to simulate the geochemical evolution previously recognized in the field. This evolution includes two stages: (1) oxidation of dissolved Fe(II) followed by hydrolysis and precipitation of Fe(III), and (2) progressive pH increase during mixing with fresh waters. Fe(III) precipitates at pH < 3.5 (stages 1 and 2) in the form of schwertmannite, whereas Al precipitates during stage 2 at pH 5.0 in the form of several hydroxysulphates of variable composition (hydrobasaluminite, basaluminite, aluminite). During these stages, trace elements are totally or partially sorbed and/or coprecipitated at different rates depending basically on pH, as well as on the activity of the SO₄⁼ anion (which determines the speciation of metals). The general trend for the metals which are chiefly present as aqueous free cations (Pb²⁺, Zn²⁺, Cu²⁺, Cd²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺) is a progressive sorption at increasing pH. On the other hand, As and V (mainly present as anionic species) are completely scavenged during the oxidation stage at pH < 3.5. In waters with high activities (> 10⁻¹) of the SO ₄⁼ ion, some elements like Al, Zn, Cd, Pb and U can also form anionic bisulphate complexes and be significantly sorbed at pH < 5. The removal rates at pH 7.0 range from around 100% for As, V, Cu and U, and 60–80% for Pb, to less than 20% for Zn, Co, Ni and Mn. These processes of metal removal represent a significant mechanism of natural attenuation in the IPB.  相似文献   

Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors     

Harpa Grímsdóttir  David Mcclung 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):127-153

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified.  相似文献   

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship     

S-S. Xu  A. F. Nieto-Samaniego  S. A. Alaniz-Álvarez  L. G. Velasquillo-Martínez 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(5):841-853

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.  相似文献   

Geometry and accuracy of reflecting points in bistatic satellite altimetry     

J. Kostelecký  J. Klokočník  C.A. Wagner 《Journal of Geodesy》2005,79(8):421-430

The analysis of the time and space distribution of specular (reflecting) points in bistatic altimetry between GPS and CHAMP satellites or SAC-C (taken as examples) is extended from Wagner and Klokočník (2003 J. Geod 77: 128–138). We demonstrate a significantly higher number and density of reflecting points in bistatic altimetry in comparison with traditional monostatic altimetry. After an outline of our older accuracy assessment for the vertical position of the reflecting point, we add a new independent derivation and compare both approaches. We account for orbit errors of both the transmitters (GPS) and receiver (CHAMP) satellites, and the measurement (delay) error. We found that the accuracy of the vertical position of the reflecting point decreases only slowly with increasing off-nadir angle and that the orbit errors must be accounted for if decimeter and better accuracy is required. In this paper, we do not study errors such as state of the ocean, technical parameters of the receiving system, and atmospheric corrections.  相似文献   

IAG Newsletter     

Gyula Tóth 《Journal of Geodesy》2005,78(10):637-644

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Daily Meteorological Observations in Cádiz – San Fernando. Analysis of the Documentary Sources and the Instrumental Data Content (1786–1996)     

Mariano Barriendos  Javier Martín-Vide  Juan Carlos Peña  Roberto Rodríguez 《Climatic change》2002,53(1-3):151-170

Meteorological observations in the city of Cádiz are acknowledged as having been made from the middle of the 18th century onwards although they were only recorded and preserved in documentary form from 1789 onwards. Data readings were taken at the new Naval Observatory in San Fernando, ten kilometres from Cádiz, from 1797 onwards. Continuous series for temperature and atmospheric pressure at a daily resolution have been compiled and constructed from 1817 until 1996. The data series is composed of thrice daily observations made at Cádiz (1821–1880) by local observers and hourly data from Naval Observatory at San Fernando (1870–1996).  相似文献   

Simultaneous use of geochemical and geophysical methods to characterise abandoned landfills     

José F. Noguera  Lluís Rivero  Xavier Font  Andrés Navarro  Francisco Martínez 《Environmental Geology》2002,41(8):898-905

. Groundwater sampling and geophysical methods determined a serious contamination problem associated with refilled exploitation sites at the Cal Dimoni area, Llobregat delta, Barcelona, Spain. To characterise this process, hydrogeochemical analyses were performed and showed the following modifications to groundwater chemical composition: increasing pH values, changing redox conditions, significant increases in total organic carbon (TOC) and certain trace elements, and high groundwater conductivity values. Major ion content accumulations were found under the refilled area. In contrast, elements involved in the oxidation–reduction processes, such as iron, manganese and nitrates, clearly diminished. Electromagnetic prospecting methods were also performed and delineated the contamination plume extent. These methods also showed separate sources of contamination, one clearly related to the groundwater–refilled zone leachate interaction, another as a consequence of the manure–accumulation surface site. Geochemical and geophysical methods have shown similar results for locating groundwater contamination sources, and for determining leachate generation mechanisms and flow paths.  相似文献   

U–Pb evidence for a polyorogenic evolution of the HP–HT units of the NW Iberian Massif     

Javier Fernández-Suárez  Fernando Corfu  Ricardo Arenas  Alberto Marcos  José R. Martínez Catalán  Florentino García  Jacobo Abati  Francisco J. Fernández 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2002,143(2):236-253

. A isotope dilution thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U-Pb geochronological study was carried out on the high-pressure and high-temperature units (HP-HT units) overlying the oceanic suture in the Allochthonous Complexes of the NW Iberian Variscan Belt. The rocks investigated are seven granulite- to eclogite-facies paragneisses and one leucosome within mafic high-pressure granulites in the Ordenes and Cabo Ortegal Complexes of NW Spain. U-Pb dating of zircon, monazite, titanite and rutile reveal the presence of a pervasive Early Ordovician metamorphic event at ca. 500-480 Ma and a later Early Devonian event at ca. 400-380 Ma. The U-Pb ages, in conjunction with petrological and structural data, indicate that the high-pressure event recorded by these rocks is Early Ordovician in age. Monazite ages in the paragneisses suggest that peak metamorphic conditions were reached at ca. 500-485 Ma. Subsequently, the rock ensemble underwent exhumation accompanied by partial melting and zircon growth at ca. 485-470 Ma. Melting of mafic granulites was coeval with this latter episode as indicated by zircon crystallisation age in the leucosomes dated at ca. 486 Ma. Based on these data and on the general features of magmatism and metamorphic evolution, it is proposed that this process took place at a convergent plate boundary within a peri-Gondwanan oceanic domain. Monazite, titanite and rutile data in some of the samples studied show evidence of a second metamorphic episode that took place between ca. 400 and 380 Ma (with a peak at ca. 390-385 Ma). This Early Devonian event, at variance with the previous one, was not pervasive, but, rather, was localised in areas of intense Variscan tectonothermal reworking. It is claimed that this later metamorphic event was recorded by the U-Pb system in areas where monazite and titanite growth was enhanced by fluid circulation in highly strained rocks (Variscan shear zones). According to previous structural studies and Ar-Ar dating of fabrics, this Early Devonian episode took place as the HP-HT units were deformed and thrusted upon the ophiolitic units in the early stages of the Variscan collision.  相似文献