GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap     

Terry Barker  Eva Alexandri  Jean-Francois Mercure  Yuki Ogawa  Hector Pollitt 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):393-414

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.  相似文献   

Determinants of household flood evacuation mode choice in a developing country     

Hector R. Lim  Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim  Mongkut Piantanakulchai 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(1):507-530

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Snowmelt contribution to the sustainability of the irrigated Mendoza’s Oasis,Argentina: an isotope study     

Hector Massone  Daniel Martinez  Alberto Vich  Mauricio Quiroz Londoño  Darío Trombotto  Sebastián Grondona 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(6):520

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Surface Geophysical Methods used to Verify the Karst Geological Structure in the Built-up Area: A Case Study of Specific Engineering-Geological Conditions     

Rene PUTISKA  Marian MARSCHALKO  Isik YILMAZ  Dominik NIEMIEC  CHENG Xianfeng  Ivan DOSTAL  Jan KUBAC 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(5):1763-1770

This article presents a research study of complex limestone karst engineering-geological conditions in the municipality Valaská near Banská Bystrica in Slovakia. The aim of the study is to demonstrate the impossibility of spatial identification of cave spaces using surface geophysical methods due to the specific engineering-geological conditions of a thick surface layer of anthropogenic fill containing highly heterogeneous anthropogenic material. Its maximum thickness is 3 m. Another specificific condition of the study area is its location in the built-up area, due to which the applicability of geophysical methods was limited. The article contains methodological recommendations to be used in analogous geological conditions with karst structures topped with anthropogenic fill, which complicates the identification of cave spaces. The recommended solution herein is the identification of the cave system using underground mapping of the karst and its projection onto the surface for which surface geophysical methods have been combined.  相似文献   

In situ target-strength measurements of Chilean jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus murphyi) collected with a scientific echosounder installed on a fishing vessel     

Pena  Hector 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2008,65(4):594-604

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Editorial     

Felix Darve  Rene de Borst  Andrew Whittle 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2012,36(9):1101-1101

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The Batu Hijau porphyry copper-gold deposit, Sumbawa Island, Indonesia   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Simon J. Meldrum  Romeo S. Aquino  Rene I. Gonzales  Robert J. Burke  Artha Suyadi  Bambang Irianto  Donald S. Clarke 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1994,50(1-3)

The Batu Hijau porphyry Cu---Au deposit lies in southwest Sumbawa Island, Indonesia. It is a world-class porphyry Cu deposit in an island are setting, and is typical of this deposit type in most features, including igneous association, morphology, hydrothermal alteration and mineralisation style.The region was not previously recognised as a porphyry Cu province; disseminated Cu sulphides were first recognised in float samples in southwest Sumbawa in 1987. Associated stream sediment sampling identified a broad area of anomalous Au and Cu in an area of greater than 5 km² around Batu Hijau, including 169 ppb Au in BLEG samples and 580 ppm Cu in stream silts 1 km from the deposit. Mineralisation in bedrock at surface contains > 0.1 wt % Cu and > 0.1 ppm Au over an area of 0.6 km × 1.2 km, including a zone 300 m × 900 m containing > 0.3 wt % Cu. Areas with elevated Mo (> 30 ppm) form a distinctive annulus around this Cu-rich zone.Batu Hijau mineralisation is hosted in a tonalite intrusive complex, and diorite and metavolcanic wallrocks. There are no post-mineralisation igneous intrusions or breccia pipes within the deposit. The main tonalite intrusion forms a stock in the centre of the deposit, where it generally displays intensely pervasive potassic (biotite with magnetite-quartz) alteration and hosts most of the higher grade mineralisation. Younger tonalite dykes intruding the centre of this stock are generally less altered and mineralised than the older tonalite.The core zone of potassic alteration grades outward into extensive propylitic alteration (chlorite-epidote), with both variably overprinted by widespread fracture controlled intermediate argillic alteration (sericite-chlorite), and minor phyllic (sericite-pyrite) and sodic (albite) alteration. Argillic (sericite-kaolinite) and advanced argillic (kaolinite-alunite-pyrophyllite) assemblages occur near surface.Copper and Au grades within the orebody show a positive correlation with quartz stockwork intensity, although disseminated Cu sulphides are also common. Chalcopyrite and bornite are the principle hypogenal minerals, with minor chalcocite. Oxidation extends to a depth of 5 m to 85 m below surface across the deposit, and is underlain by weak supergene mineralisation. Drill testing of the deposit down to 650 m below surface reveals a single cylindrical to conical orebody of 334 million tonnes grading 0.8 wt % Cu and 0.69 gm per tonne Au; the depth extent of mineralisation is unknown.  相似文献   

The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation observed in the semidiurnal ground pressure data     

Hector Teitelbaum  François Vial  Pierre Bauer 《Annales Geophysicae》1995,13(7):740-744

Ground pressure observations made at Macao (22^○N, 113^○E) from 1953 to 1991 are analyzed and compared with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) data obtained during the same interval. The periods of the two phenomena and their time evolution are found to be close to each other. Furthermore, the time series of the stratospheric winds and the S2(p) QBO signature are highly correlated, thus confirming earlier analysis. On this basis, pressure measurements obtained at Batavia (now Djakarta: 6^○S, 107^○E) from 1870 to 1944 are used to trace back the QBO phenomenon before the advent of systematic stratospheric balloon measurements. The inferred period, which varies between 25 and 32 months, suggests that the QBO has been present in the atmosphere at least since 1870.  相似文献   

Solar wind density model from km-wave type III bursts     

Hector Alvarez  F. T. Haddock 《Solar physics》1973,28(1):197-209

Solar radio bursts were observed with a 4-channel radiometer and polarization analyser at wavelenghts around 12 m. The time and frequency resolutions were 10 ms and 100 kHz respectively. Observations on the duration, time profile and frequency splitting are described.  相似文献   

On the flow structure and turbulence during sweep and ejection events in a wind-tunnel model canopy     

Weihong Zhu  Rene van Hout  Joseph Katz 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,124(2):205-233

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) data obtained in a wind-tunnel model of a canopy boundary layer is used to examine the characteristics of mean flow and turbulence. The vector spacing varies between 1.7 and 2.5 times the Kolmogorov scales. Conditional sampling based on quadrants, i.e. based on the signs of velocity fluctuations, reveals fundamental differences in flow structure, especially between sweep and ejection events, which dominate the flow. During sweeps, the downward flow generates a narrow, highly turbulent, shear layer containing multiple small-scale vortices just below canopy height. During ejections, the upward flow expands this shear layer and the associated small-scale flow structures to a broad region located above the canopy. Consequently, during sweeps the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), Reynolds stresses, as well as production and dissipation rates, have distinct narrow peaks just below canopy height, whereas during ejections these variables have broad maxima well above the canopy. Three methods to estimate the dissipation rate are compared, including spectral fits, measured subgrid-scale (SGS) energy fluxes at different scales, and direct measurements of slightly underresolved instantaneous velocity gradients. The SGS energy flux is 40–60% of the gradient-based (direct) estimates for filter sizes inside the inertial range, while decreasing with scale, as expected, within the dissipation range. The spectral fits are within 5–30% of the direct estimates. The spectral fits exceed the direct estimates near canopy height, but are lower well above and below canopy height. The dissipation rate below canopy height increases with velocity magnitude, i.e. it has the highest values during sweep and quadrant 1 events, and is significantly lower during ejection and quadrant 3 events. Well above the canopy, ejections are the most dissipative. Turbulent transport during sweep events acts as a source below the narrow shear layer within the canopy and as a sink above it. Transport during ejection events is a source only well above the canopy. The residual term in the TKE transport equation, representing mostly the effect of pressure–velocity correlations, is substantial only within the canopy, and is dominated by sweeps.  相似文献