SST versus Climate Change Signals in West African Rainfall: 20th-Century Variations and Future Projections   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Heiko Paeth  Andreas Hense 《Climatic change》2004,65(1-2):179-208

Rainfall variability is a crucial factor in food production,water resource planning and ecosystems, especially in regions with scarce freshwaterresources. In West Africa rainfall has been subject to largedecadal and interdecadal variations during the 20th century. The most prominent feature is thereduction in rainfall amount throughout the second half of the century with somerecovery at the end. Among the conceivable mechanisms, which might inducesuch low-frequency variability in West African precipitation, this study isfocussed onsea surface temperature (SST) variations and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG)concentrations. A tool is presented to distinguish between both impacts bymeans of various climate model simulations, which are found to reproduce theobserved rainfall characteristics over West Africa reasonably well.Further, a multi-model approach is usedto evaluate the expected future greenhouse signal in West African rainfall with respect to natural variability and intermodel variations.It is found that observed SST fluctuations, forcing two different atmospheric climate models, are able to reproduce the main features ofobserved decadal rainfall anomalies in the southern part of West Africathroughout the second half of the 20th century. The seasonal response to varying SST isstrongest in summer when the region is undergoing intensive monsoondynamics. Whereas both atmospheric models simulate the observeddrought tendency,following the 1960s, there is some indication that the additional GHG forcing in one model inducessome significantly different rainfall anomalies in recent years, re-initiatingeven positive anomalies relative to the climatological mean which has alsobeen observed since the 1990s. However, thisresult is still subject to model uncertainty.Coupled climate model integrations with different climate change scenariosalsopredict that precipitation, particularly over the Guinea Coast and Sahelregion, will steadily increase into the 21st century. The model-comprehensive signal isstatistically significant with respect to natural variability and modeluncertainty, suggesting that the observed recovery of yearly rainfall overparts of West Africa might actually reflect the beginning impact of risinganthropogenic GHG. The physical mechanism, linking the radiative forcing tothe monsoonal rainfall, probably works via warming of the tropicalAtlantic Ocean.  相似文献   

Modelling of hydrogeochemical anomalies induced by distant earthquakes   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Rongjiang Wang  Heiko Woith  Claus Milkereit  Jochen Zschau 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(2):717-726

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Seasonality and time scales in the relationship between global SST and African rainfall   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Heiko Paeth  Petra Friederichs 《Climate Dynamics》2004,23(7-8):815-837

The main goal of this study is to determine the oceanic regions corresponding to variability in African rainfall and seasonal differences in the atmospheric teleconnections. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) has been applied in order to extract the dominant patterns of linear covariability. An ensemble of six simulations with the global atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4, forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice boundary variability, is used in order to focus on the SST-related part of African rainfall variability. Our main finding is that the boreal summer rainfall (June–September mean) over Africa is more affected by SST changes than in boreal winter (December–March mean). In winter, there is a highly significant link between tropical African rainfall and Indian Ocean and eastern tropical Pacific SST anomalies, which is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, long-term changes are found to be associated with SST changes in the Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans, thus, showing that the tropical Atlantic plays a critical role in determining the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Since ENSO is less in summer, the tropical Pacific and the Indian Oceans are less important for African rainfall. The African summer monsoon is strongly influenced by SST variations in the Gulf of Guinea, with a response of opposite sign over the Sahelian zone and the Guinean coast region. SST changes in the subtropical and extratropical oceans mostly take place on decadal time scales and are responsible for low-frequency rainfall fluctuations over West Africa. The modelled teleconnections are highly consistent with the observations. The agreement for most of the teleconnection patterns is remarkable and suggests that the modelled rainfall anomalies serve as suitable predictors for the observed changes.  相似文献   

Climatic and geographic patterns of river runoff formation in Northern Eurasia     

Alexander Onuchin  Heiko Balzter  Helen Borisova  Eleanor Blyth 《Advances in water resources》2006

Siberian rivers are of global importance as they impact on the freshwater budget of the Arctic Ocean, which affects the Thermo-Haline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Siberian rivers, in particular the tributaries to the larger rivers, are under-represented in the international river-regime databases. The runoff of three Russian rivers in the Central Siberian taiga (Kureyka, Karabula and Erba) is modelled to analyse the relative influence of climate. In addition three rivers (Rhine, Maas and Odra) in Western Europe are similarly assessed as a control. The results show that the role of precipitation and autocorrelation as factors in the formation of river runoff is stronger under oceanic climate conditions, increasing from the central regions of Northern Eurasia towards the Arctic Ocean in the North and the Atlantic in the West. At the same time the influence of summer temperatures is weakened. The formation of Northern Eurasian river runoff appears to be influenced by periodically thawing top horizons of permafrost soil. Time served as an indicator for land use change after inclusion of meteorological data in the models. Maas and Erba showed a significant influence of the time factor. For the Erba the onset of agricultural land use in the catchment coincides with a drop in runoff. A similar causal relationship is suggested for the Maas. Land use can change the formation of runoff, which in turn can be used as an environmental indicator for sustainable land use.  相似文献   

Ecological succession, palaeoenvironmental change, and depositional sequences of Barremian–Aptian shallow-water carbonates in northern Oman     

Bernard Pittet  Frans S. P. Van Buchem  Heiko Hillgärtner  Philippe Razin†  Jürgen Grötsch‡  Henk Droste§ 《Sedimentology》2002,49(3):555-581

Abstract Barremian and Aptian shallow‐water carbonate facies (uppermost Lekhwair, Kharaib and Shuaiba Formations) are described from outcrops in northern Oman. Based on facies analysis and bedding pattern, three orders of depositional sequences are defined (third to fifth order) and correlated between sections. Over the course of three third‐order sequences, covering the Barremian to Lower Aptian, a third‐order depositional pattern is documented that consists of a succession of three distinct faunal assemblages: discoidal orbitolinids and calcareous algae were deposited during early transgression; microbialites and microencrusters dominate the late transgressive to early highstand facies; and a rudist‐ and miliolid‐dominated facies is typical of the highstand. This ecological succession was controlled largely by palaeoenvironmental changes, such as trophic level and clay influx, rather than sedimentological factors controlled by variations in accommodation space. Orbitolinid beds and carbonates formed by microbialites and microencrusters seem to be the shallow‐water carbonate response to global changes affecting Late Barremian to Aptian palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography.  相似文献   

How dynamical models can learn from the data��an example with a simplified ENSO model     

Heiko Paeth  Janna Lindenberg  Maik Kschischo  Andreas Hense 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,104(1-2):221-231

Most dynamical models of the natural system contain a number of empirical parameters which reflect our limited understanding of the simulated system or describe unresolved subgrid-scale processes. While the parameterizations basically introduce some uncertainty to the model results, they also hold the prospect of tuning the model. In general, a deterministic tuning is related to an inversion of the model which is often impossible or requires considerable computing effort for most climate models. Another way to adjust the model parameters to a specific observed process is stochastic fitting where a set of parameters and model output are taken as random variables. Here, we present a dynamical?Cstatistical approach with a simplified model of the El Ni?o?CSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle whose parameters are adjusted to simulated and observed data by means of Bayesian statistics. As ENSO model, we employ the Schop?CSuarez delay oscillator model. Monte Carlo experiments highlight the large sensitivity of the model results to varied model parameters and initial values. The statistical adjustment is done by Bayesian model averaging of the Monte Carlo experiments. Applying the method to simulated data, the posterior ensemble mean is much closer to the reference data than the prior ensemble mean. The learning effect of the model is evident in the leading empirical orthogonal functions and statistically significant in the mean state. When the method is applied to the observed ENSO time series, the ENSO model in its classical setup is not able to account for the temporally varying periodicity of the observed ENSO phenomenon. An improved setup with continuous adjustment periods and extended parameter range is developed in order to allow the model to learn from the data gradually. The improved setup leads to promising results during the twentieth century and even a weak forecast skill over 6?months. Thus, the described method offers a promising tool for data assimilation in dynamical weather and climate models. However, the simplified ENSO model is barely appropriate for operational ENSO forecasts owing to its limited physical complexity.  相似文献   

The potential effects of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa using bias-corrected regionalised climate projections and a simple malaria seasonality model     

Volker Ermert  Andreas H. Fink  Heiko Paeth 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):741-754

Climatic conditions such as relatively cold temperatures and dryness are able to limit malaria transmission. Climate change is therefore expected to alter malaria spread. A previous assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the seasonality of malaria in Africa is revisited. Bias-corrected regional climate projections with a horizontal resolution of 0.5° are used from the Regional Model (REMO), which include land use and land cover changes. The malaria model employed is the climate-driven seasonality model (MSM) from the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project for which a comparison with data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) and the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), and a novel validation procedure lends more credence to results. For climate scenarios A1B and B1 and for 2001–2050, REMO projects an overall drying and warming trend in the African malaria belt, that is largely imposed by the man-made degradation of vegetation. As a result, the malaria projections of the MSM show a decreased length of the malaria season in West Africa. The northern Sahel is no more longer suitable for malaria in the projections and shorter malaria seasons are expected for various areas farther south. In East Africa, higher temperatures and nearly unchanged precipitation patterns lead to longer transmission seasons and an increase in highland malaria. Assuming constant population numbers, an overall increase in person-months of exposure of up to 6 % is found. The results of this simple seasonality model are similar to previous projections from the more complex LMM. However, a different response to the warming of highlands is found for the two models. It is concluded that the MSM is an efficient tool to assess the climate-driven malaria seasonality and that an uncertainty analysis of future malaria spread would benefit from a multi-model approach.  相似文献   

ISRM Suggested Method for Determining the Abrasivity of Rock by the CERCHAR Abrasivity Test     

Michael Alber  Olgay Yaralı  Filip Dahl  Amund Bruland  Heiko Käsling  Theodore N. Michalakopoulos  Marilena Cardu  Paul Hagan  Hamit Aydın  Ahmet Özarslan 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2014,47(1):261-266

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Remote sensing and global environmental change,by Samuel Purkis and Victor Klemas     

Heiko Balzter 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1688-1689

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Numerical simulations for the non-linear Molodensky problem     

Lothar Banz  Adrian Costea  Heiko Gimperlein  Ernst P. Stephan 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2014,58(4):489-504

We present a boundary element method to compute numerical approximations to the non-linear Molodensky problem, which reconstructs the surface of the Earth from the gravitational potential and the gravity vector. Our solution procedure solves a sequence of exterior oblique Robin problems and is based on a Nash-Hörmander iteration. We apply smoothing with the heat equation to overcome a loss of derivatives in the surface update. Numerical results show the error between the approximation and the exact solution in a model problem.  相似文献