ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations     

Yongxin Zhang  Yun Qian  Valérie Dulière  Eric P. Salathé Jr  L. Ruby Leung 《Climatic change》2012,110(1-2):315-346

Surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity and wind anomalies associated with the warm and cold phases of ENSO simulated by WRF and HadRM are examined for the present and future decades. WRF is driven by ECHAM5 and CCSM3, respectively, and HadRM is driven by HadCM3. For the current decades, all simulations show some capability in resolving the observed warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns over the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for warm and cold ENSO. Differences in the regional simulations originate primarily from the respective driving fields. For the future decades, the warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns in association with ENSO are still represented in ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM. However, there are indications of changes in the ENSO teleconnection patterns for CCSM3-WRF in the future, with wet anomalies dominating in the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for both warm and cold ENSO, in contrast to the canonical patterns of precipitation anomalies. Interaction of anomalous wind flow with local terrain plays a critical role in the generation of anomalous precipitation over the western U.S. Anomalous dry conditions are always associated with anomalous airflow that runs parallel to local mountains and wet conditions with airflow that runs perpendicular to local mountains. Future changes in temperature and precipitation associated with the ENSO events in the regional simulations indicate varying responses depending on the variables examined as well as depending on the phase of ENSO.  相似文献   

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Eric P. Salathé Jr.  L. Ruby Leung  Yun Qian  Yongxin Zhang 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):51-75

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional climate of the State of Washington. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970–1999) to the mid twenty-first century (2030–2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.  相似文献   

Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Christel Prudhomme  Helen Davies 《Climatic change》2009,93(1-2):197-222

The first part of this paper demonstrated the existence of bias in GCM-derived precipitation series, downscaled using either a statistical technique (here the Statistical Downscaling Model) or dynamical method (here high resolution Regional Climate Model HadRM3) propagating to river flow estimated by a lumped hydrological model. This paper uses the same models and methods for a future time horizon (2080s) and analyses how significant these projected changes are compared to baseline natural variability in four British catchments. The UKCIP02 scenarios, which are widely used in the UK for climate change impact, are also considered. Results show that GCMs are the largest source of uncertainty in future flows. Uncertainties from downscaling techniques and emission scenarios are of similar magnitude, and generally smaller than GCM uncertainty. For catchments where hydrological modelling uncertainty is smaller than GCM variability for baseline flow, this uncertainty can be ignored for future projections, but might be significant otherwise. Predicted changes are not always significant compared to baseline variability, less than 50% of projections suggesting a significant change in monthly flow. Insignificant changes could occur due to climate variability alone and thus cannot be attributed to climate change, but are often ignored in climate change studies and could lead to misleading conclusions. Existing systematic bias in reproducing current climate does impact future projections and must, therefore, be considered when interpreting results. Changes in river flow variability, important for water management planning, can be easily assessed from simple resampling techniques applied to both baseline and future time horizons. Assessing future climate and its potential implication for river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. This two-part paper demonstrates that uncertainty due to hydrological and climate modelling must and can be accounted for to provide sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers.  相似文献   

Thallium isotopes as a potential tracer for the origin of cratonic eclogites     

Sune G. Nielsen  Helen M. Williams  William L. Griffin  Norman Pearson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(24):7387-6704

Cratonic eclogites are inferred to originate either from subducted ocean crust or mantle melts accreted onto the roots of continents. These models have different implications for the growth of continents, but it is currently difficult to determine the origin of individual eclogite suites.Upper ocean crust altered at low temperatures and marine sediments both display high thallium (Tl) concentrations and strongly fractionated Tl isotope signatures relative to the ambient upper mantle. In this study we carry out the first examination of the suitability of Tl isotopes as a tracer for an ocean-crust origin of cratonic eclogites. We have analysed the Tl isotope composition of clinopyroxene and garnet in six eclogites from the Kaalvallei and Bellsbank kimberlite pipes in South Africa. Minerals were pre-cleaned with an HCl leaching technique and the leachates display variably light Tl isotope ratios. These most likely reflect low-temperature hydrothermal alteration occurring after eruption of the kimberlite that carried the eclogites to the surface.The leached mineral pairs all display identical Tl isotope ratios, strongly suggesting that the source of the analysed Tl is identical for each mineral pair. It is, however, not possible to exclude the possibility that the analysed Tl originates from kimberlitic material that was not removed by the cleaning procedure.Only one of the six samples exhibits a Tl isotope composition different from ambient mantle. Assuming that the Tl isotope signatures indeed represent the eclogite minerals and not any form of contamination, the Tl isotope composition in this sample is consistent with containing a minor component (<3%) of ocean crust altered at low temperatures.Thallium isotopes may become one of the most sensitive indicators for the presence of low-T altered ocean crust because of the stark contrast in Tl concentration and isotopic composition between the mantle and altered ocean crust. In fact, no other chemical or isotopic tracer could have provided an indication that any of the samples studied here had a subduction origin. However, much work is still required before it becomes clear if Tl isotope measurements are a viable means to establish the origin of cratonic eclogites.  相似文献   

Linear and nonlinear vibration of non-uniform beams on two-parameter foundations using p-elements     

B. Zhu  A.Y.T. Leung 《Computers and Geotechnics》2009

A hierarchical finite element is presented for the geometrically nonlinear free and forced vibration of a non-uniform Timoshenko beam resting on a two-parameter foundation. Legendre orthogonal polynomials are used as enriching shape functions to avoid the shear-locking problem. With the enriching degrees of freedom, the accuracy of the computed results and the computational efficiency are greatly improved. The arc-length iterative method is used to solve the nonlinear eigenvalue equation. The computed results of linear and nonlinear vibration analyses show that the convergence of the proposed element is very fast with respect to the number of Legendre orthogonal polynomials used. Since the elastic foundation and the axial load applied at both ends of the beam affect the ratios of linear frequencies associated with the internal resonance, they influence the nonlinear vibration characteristics of the beam. The axial tensile stress of the beam in nonlinear vibration is investigated in this paper, and attention should be paid to the geometrically nonlinear vibration resulting in considerably large axial tensile stress in the beam.  相似文献   

A newly discovered active contact binary in the field of NGC 1348     

Xiang-Song Fang  Sheng-Hong Gu  Ho-Keung Hui  Chi-Tai Kwok  Bill Yeung  Kam-Cheung Leung 《天体物理学报》2012,(1):93-103

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A Statistical Upscaling Workflow for Warm Solvent Injection Processes for Heterogeneous Heavy Oil Reservoirs     

Andriianova  Elena  Leung  Juliana Y. 《Natural Resources Research》2021,30(6):4417-4437

Natural Resources Research - Hybrid solvent- and thermal-based methods offer an important potential for reducing the environmental impact and enhancing recoveries in heavy oil production processes....  相似文献   

Applying Geography Course Projects to Issues in City Resilience and Global Connectivity     

Ronald V. Kalafsky  Helen M. Rosko 《The Journal of geography》2017,116(2):67-78

Globalization would appear to be a subject that easily could be addressed in geography classrooms, yet this is not always the case. In terms of pedagogy, many geographers are concerned whether the field has been adequately engaging various components of this topic (e.g., connectivity, core-periphery), especially in terms of making the subject matter relevant to students. This article presents the results of a recent course project situated at the intersection of city-level resilience to hazards and connectivity with the global economy, utilizing SWOT analysis. The student projects demonstrated that this comparatively simple analytical tool was a useful means for exploring and integrating key topics in globalization and urban-economic geography, while also facilitating a problem-based learning environment.  相似文献   

An integrated web-based air pollution decision support system – a prototype     

Yee Leung  Kwong-Sak Leung  Man-Hong Wong  Terrence Mak  Kwan-Yau Cheung  Leung-Yau Lo 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(9):1787-1814

To efficiently and effectively monitor and mitigate air pollution in the urban environment, it is of paramount importance to integrate into a unified whole air pollutant concentration databases coming from different sources including the ground-based stations, mobile sensors, remote sensing, atmospheric-chemical-transport models and social media for the analysis and unraveling of the complex air pollution processes in space and time. This study constructs and implements for the first time a prototype of the fully integrated air pollution decision support system (APDSS) that put together in an integrated manner all relevant multi-scale, multi-type and multi-source data for decision-making on urban air pollution. The prototype contains the main system that handles the multi-source, multi-type and multi-scale databases, queries, visualization and data mining algorithms and the integrated modules that individually and holistically capitalize on the power of the ground-based stations, ground and aerial mobile sensors, satellite-borne remote-sensing technologies, atmospheric-chemical-transport models and social media. It renders a solid scientific foundation and system development methodology for the study of the spatiotemporal air pollution profiles crucial to the mitigation of urban air pollution. Real-life applications of the prototype are employed to illustrate the functionality of the APDSS.  相似文献   

Spatial Pair-Copula Modeling of Grade in Ore Bodies: A Case Study     

G. Nishani Musafer  M. Helen Thompson  E. Kozan  R. C. Wolff 《Natural Resources Research》2017,26(2):223-236

A real-world mining application of pair-copulas is presented to model the spatial distribution of metal grade in an ore body. Inaccurate estimation of metal grade in an ore reserve can lead to failure of a mining project. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used models for estimating grade and other spatial variables. However, kriged models use the variogram or covariance function, which produces a single average value to represent the spatial dependence for a given distance. Kriged models also assume linear spatial dependence. In the application, spatial pair-copulas are used to appropriately model the non-linear spatial dependence present in the data. The spatial pair-copula model is adopted over other copula-based spatial models since it is better able to capture complex spatial dependence structures. The performance of the pair-copula model is shown to be favorable compared to a conventional lognormal kriged model.  相似文献