Integrating Scales of Seagrass Monitoring to Meet Conservation Needs     

Hilary A. Neckles  Blaine S. Kopp  Bradley J. Peterson  Penelope S. Pooler 《Estuaries and Coasts》2012,35(1):23-46

We evaluated a hierarchical framework for seagrass monitoring in two estuaries in the northeastern USA: Little Pleasant Bay, Massachusetts, and Great South Bay/Moriches Bay, New York. This approach includes three tiers of monitoring that are integrated across spatial scales and sampling intensities. We identified monitoring attributes for determining attainment of conservation objectives to protect seagrass ecosystems from estuarine nutrient enrichment. Existing mapping programs provided large-scale information on seagrass distribution and bed sizes (tier 1 monitoring). We supplemented this with bay-wide, quadrat-based assessments of seagrass percent cover and canopy height at permanent sampling stations following a spatially distributed random design (tier 2 monitoring). Resampling simulations showed that four observations per station were sufficient to minimize bias in estimating mean percent cover on a bay-wide scale, and sample sizes of 55 stations in a 624-ha system and 198 stations in a 9,220-ha system were sufficient to detect absolute temporal increases in seagrass abundance from 25% to 49% cover and from 4% to 12% cover, respectively. We made high-resolution measurements of seagrass condition (percent cover, canopy height, total and reproductive shoot density, biomass, and seagrass depth limit) at a representative index site in each system (tier 3 monitoring). Tier 3 data helped explain system-wide changes. Our results suggest tiered monitoring as an efficient and feasible way to detect and predict changes in seagrass systems relative to multi-scale conservation objectives.  相似文献   

Introduction     

Jean-Pierre Burg  Hilary Downes 《Geodinamica Acta》2013,26(1-2):1-2

Manisa Fault is a geomorphologically distinct normal dip-slip fault, which oversees the southern edge of the Manisa Graben that is a continuum of the Gediz Graben towards the west. This study aims to determine the neotectonic activity of the Manisa Fault and the most recent time of the change in its stress condition through age-dating data obtained by using ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U dating methodology applied on the calcite coating that develops over hanging-wall of the Manisa Fault and the calcite veins that occur as fracture fillings. The age of the calcite precipitations associated with the Manisa Fault was determined to be between 307?±?203 and 444?±?101?ka by using the ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U dating method. Evaluation of the carbonate precipitations on the Manisa Fault along with the age data and the kinematic indicators ascertained that the Manisa Fault switched to a dip-slip normal faulting character from Middle Pleistocene onwards and that the region was under the effect of a NE–SW directional extensional regime. In addition, the opening rate was attempted to be determined using the roll-over anticline structure that advanced depending upon the movement of the fault on the upper horizontal strata of colluviums, which developed in association with the Manisa Fault. Along with the evaluation of the rise in the horizontal stratification in colluvium and the obtained age data, opening rate of the Manisa Fault was determined as 0.01?mm?y^?1.  相似文献   

Modeling surface water–groundwater interaction in New Zealand: Model development and application          下载免费PDF全文

Jing Yang  Hilary McMillan  Christian Zammit 《水文研究》2017,31(4):925-934

Most rivers worldwide have a strong interaction with groundwater when they leave the mountains and flow over alluvial plains before flowing into the seas or disappearing in the deserts, and in New Zealand, typically, rivers lose water to the groundwater in the upper plains and generally gain water from the groundwater in the lower plains. Aiming at simulating surface water–groundwater interaction nationally in New Zealand, we developed a conceptual groundwater module for the national hydrologic model TopNet to simulate surface water–groundwater interaction, groundwater flow, and intercatchment groundwater flow. The developed model was applied to the Pareora catchment in South Island of New Zealand, where there are concurrent spot gauged flows. Results show that the model simulations not only fit quite well to flow measurement but also to concurrent spot gauged flows, and compared to the original TopNet, it has a significant improvement in the low flows. Sensitivity analysis shows river flow is sensitive to the river losing/gaining rate instead of groundwater characteristic, while groundwater storage is sensitive to both river losing/gaining rate and groundwater characteristic. This indicates our conceptual approach is promising for nationwide modeling without the large amount of geology and aquifer data typically required by physically‐based modeling approaches.  相似文献   

Rapid late-glacial atmospheric CO2 changes reconstructed from the stomatal density record of fossil leaves     

David J. Beerling  Hilary H. Birks  F. Ian Woodward 《第四纪科学杂志》1995,10(4):379-384

The Younger Dryas stadial (11 000-10 000 yr BP) was an abrupt return to a glacial climate during the termination of the last glaciation. We have reconstructed atmospheric CO₂ concentrations from a high-resolution sequence of fossil Salix herbacea leaves through this climatic oscillation from Kråkenes, western Norway, using the relationship between leaf stomatal density and atmospheric CO₂ concentration. High Allerød CO₂ values (median 273 ppmv) decreased rapidly during 130–200 ¹⁴C-years of the late Allerød to ca. 210 ppmv at the start of the Younger Dryas. They then increased steadily through the Younger Dryas, reaching typical interglacial values once more (ca. 275 ppmv) in the Holocene. The rapid late Allerød decrease in CO₂ concentration preceded the Younger Dryas temperature drop, possibly by several decades. This striking pattern of changes has not so far been recorded unambiguously in temporally coarse measurements of atmospheric CO₂ from ice cores. Our observed late-glacial CO₂ changes have implications for global modelling of the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere over the last glacial-interglacial transition.  相似文献   

Early Weichselian interstadial (MIS 5c) summer temperatures were higher than today in northern Fennoscandia     

Minna Väliranta  Hilary H. Birks  Karin Helmens  Stefan Engels  Mikko Piirainen 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(9-10):777-782

Only fragmentary biostratigraphical interstadial data exist from northern European high latitudes. The palaeoenvironmental interpretations for the early part of the Last Glaciation in northern Fennoscandia are mainly based on palynological evidence that suggests open birch woodland and a sub-arctic climate. Plant macrofossils from the Sokli sediment sequence in Finnish Lapland provide different evidence of interstadial climate conditions. The assemblage includes several species that currently have considerably more southern distribution ranges. This indicates that ca 100,000 years ago summer temperatures were warmer than today. The mean minimum July temperature may have been as high as 16 °C and the effective temperature sum may have been 1000 in day-degree units (d.d.), the modern values being 13 °C and 650 d.d., respectively. The contemporary astronomical forcing mechanisms may have resulted in a weaker north–south temperature gradient and a longer growing period, creating more favourable climate conditions compared with today.  相似文献   

Lateglacial vegetation development in Denmark – New evidence based on macrofossils and pollen from Slotseng,a small-scale site in southern Jutland     

Morten Fischer Mortensen  Hilary H. Birks  Charlie Christensen  Jørgen Holm  Nanna Noe-Nygaard  Bent Vad Odgaard  Jesper Olsen  Kaare Lund Rasmussen 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(19-20):2534-2550

This paper presents the first unambiguous terrestrial palaeoecological record for the late glacial “Bølling warming” in Denmark. Pollen and macrofossil stratigraphies from pre-Bølling to 10,800 cal yr BP are presented from a small kettle hole in Southwest Denmark, during which the lake basin developed from an immature stage after the deglaciation to complete infilling in the early Holocene. Results show that the recently deglaciated landscape bore a discontinuous vegetation of pioneer plants. After the Bølling warming, an open Dryas octopetala-Betula nana community developed with Helianthemum oelandicum. Subarctic species were dominant and local successions were probably delayed by relatively unstable and infertile soils. There is no indication of a climate cooling during the period corresponding to the Older Dryas, but the occurrence of several drought tolerant and steppe species indicates that the period was relatively dry. In the Allerød period the Dryas-B. nana vegetation was initially replaced by an open Salix and grass dominated vegetation and some 400 years later, the first tree birches were documented presumably occupying moist and sheltered soils while drier land remained open. In the Younger Dryas period trees disappeared and the vegetation became open again and dominated by subarctic species. Following climate warming at the Younger Dryas–Holocene transition a shrub community of Empetrum and Juniperus developed. After approximately 200 years it was replaced by birch forest. Overall, the late-glacial vegetation cover had a more open and patchy character than inferred from previous pollen studies as assessment of the vegetation succession based on macrofossil evidence is essential. The inferred general vegetation development corresponds well with results of other studies in the region. Canonical ordinations (RDA) indicate that vegetation changes at the landscape scale during the Lateglacial period were driven by changes in climate, soils and competition for light.  相似文献   

Hydrological field data from a modeller's perspective: Part 1. Diagnostic tests for model structure     

Hilary K. McMillan  Martyn P. Clark  William B. Bowden  Maurice Duncan  Ross A. Woods 《水文研究》2011,25(4):511-522

Hydrological scientists develop perceptual models of the catchments they study, using field measurements and observations to build an understanding of the dominant processes controlling the hydrological response. However, conceptual and numerical models used to simulate catchment behaviour often fail to take advantage of this knowledge. It is common instead to use a pre‐defined model structure which can only be fitted to the catchment via parameter calibration. In this article, we suggest an alternative approach where different sources of field data are used to build a synthesis of dominant hydrological processes and hence provide recommendations for representing those processes in a time‐stepping simulation model. Using analysis of precipitation, flow and soil moisture data, recommendations are made for a comprehensive set of modelling decisions, including Evapotranspiration (ET) parameterization, vertical drainage threshold and behaviour, depth and water holding capacity of the active soil zone, unsaturated and saturated zone model architecture and deep groundwater flow behaviour. The second article in this two‐part series implements those recommendations and tests the capability of different model sub‐components to represent the observed hydrological processes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Direct evidence of fluid mixing in the formation of stratabound Pb–Zn–Ba–F mineralisation in the Alston Block, North Pennine Orefield (England)     

Jon E. Bouch  Jonathan Naden  Thomas J. Shepherd  John A. McKervey  Brian Young  Antony J. Benham  Hilary J. Sloane 《Mineralium Deposita》2006,41(8):821-835

The North Pennine Orefield Alston Block has produced approximately 4 Mt Pb, 0.3 Mt Zn, 2.1 Mt fluorite, 1.5 Mt barite, 1 Mt witherite, plus a substantial amount of iron ore and copper ore from predominantly vein-hosted mineralisation in Carboniferous limestones. However, a significant proportion of this production (ca. 20%) came from stratabound deposits. Though much is known about the vein mineralisation, the relationship between the veins and the stratabound mineralisation is not well-understood. New petrographic, isotopic and fluid inclusion data derived from samples of stratabound mineralisation allow us to present a unified model that addresses the genesis of both the vein and stratabound styles of mineralisation. The mineralisation can be considered in terms of three episodes:

1.	Dolomitisation and ankeritisation Limestones in the vicinity of the stratabound mineralisation were pervasively dolomitised/ankeritised, and developed vuggy porosity in the presence of a high-salinity brine consistent with fluids derived from adjacent mud and shale-filled basins.
2.	Main stage fluorite–quartz–sulphide mineralisation Metasomatism of limestone was accompanied by brecciation, dissolution and hydrothermal karstification with modification of the existing pore system. The open space was filled with fluorite, galena, sphalerite, quartz and barite, formed in response to mixing of low-salinity sodic groundwater with high-salinity calcic brine with elevated metal contents (particularly Fe up to 7,000 ppm) relative to “normal” high total dissolved solids sedimentary brines.
3.	Late-stage barite mineralisation paragenetically appears to represent either the waning stages or the distal portions of the main hydrothermal circulation system under cooler conditions.

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Mapping the shadow of experience of extreme weather events   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Peter D. Howe  Hilary Boudet  Anthony Leiserowitz  Edward W. Maibach 《Climatic change》2014,127(2):381-389

Climate change will increase the frequency and/or intensity of certain extreme weather events, and perceived experience with extreme weather may influence climate change beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. However, the aspects of extreme events that influence whether or not people perceive that they have personally experienced them remain unclear. We investigate (1) the correspondence of reported experience of extreme weather events with documented events, and (2) how characteristics of different extreme events shape the geographic area within which people are likely to report they have experienced it—the event’s perceived “shadow of experience.” We overlay geocoded survey responses indicating personal experience with hurricanes, tornadoes, and drought—from a 2012 nationally representative survey (N?=?1,008) of U.S. residents—on maps of recorded event impacts. We find that reported experiences correspond well with recorded event impacts, particularly for hurricanes and tornadoes. Reported experiences were related to event type, proximity, magnitude and duration. The results suggest locations where disaster preparedness efforts and climate change education campaigns could be most effective after an extreme weather event.  相似文献   

Nonparametric catchment clustering using the data depth function     

Shailesh Kumar Singh  Hilary McMillan  András Bárdossy  Chebana Fateh 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15):2649-2667

ABSTRACT

The clustering of catchments is important for prediction in ungauged basins, model parameterization and watershed development and management. The aim of this study is to explore a new measure of similarity among catchments, using a data depth function and comparing it with catchment clustering indices based on flow and physical characteristics. A cluster analysis was performed for each similarity measure using the affinity propagation clustering algorithm. We evaluated the similarity measure based on depth–depth plots (DD-plots) as a basis for transferring parameter sets of a hydrological model between catchments. A case study was developed with 21 catchments in a diverse New Zealand region. Results show that clustering based on the depth–depth measure is dissimilar to clustering on catchment characteristics, flow, or flow indices. A hydrological model was calibrated for the 21 catchments and the transferability of model parameters among similar catchments was tested within and between clusters defined by each clustering method. The mean model performance for parameters transferred within a group always outperformed those from outside the group. The DD-plot based method was found to produce the best in-group performance and second-highest difference between in-group and out-group performance.