A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall     

Linye Song  Wansuo Duan  Yun Li  Jiangyu Mao 《大气科学进展》2016,33(9):1071-7084

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.  相似文献   

高性能计算技术在气象领域的应用   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

赵立成  沈文海  肖华东  王彬  孙婧  魏敏  李娟  沈瑜 《应用气象学报》2016,27(5):550-558

高性能计算通过应用超级计算机与并行处理技术解决复杂的计算问题,是信息技术发展比较迅猛的领域之一。气象应用始终是高性能计算的重要领域,高性能计算技术有效地解决了高分辨率、高精度气象数值预报模式发展限制,在气象预报预测业务中发挥着核心支撑作用。数十年以来,由于数值天气模式研究和业务运行对计算资源的强烈需求,国内外气象领域高性能计算机及应用迅速发展起来。气象领域对高性能计算能力及系统的可靠性需求日益提升。高性能计算技术将与气象预报应用日益融合,相互影响促进,不断创新发展。为满足气象预报预测业务和科研工作需求,中国气象部门将进一步提升高性能计算能力,并致力于优化集约高性能计算系统布局,高效管理计算资源,发挥最大效益。  相似文献   

强度尺度分解方法在气候温度场检验中的应用     

李娟  曾晓东  陈红  蔡其发 《大气科学》2016,40(6):1117-1126

本文首次将Casati等提出的强度尺度分解方法应用到气候地表温度场的检验中,探讨此方法用于评估气候模拟场误差的详细空间信息的适用性。以新一代气候系统模式模拟的月平均地表温度为例,传统的统计分析方法（较为常用的是空间相关系数和均方根误差、EOF分析等）不能完全反映模拟场误差的空间信息;强度尺度分解方法可计算不同阈值和空间尺度上的均方误差和模拟技巧,评估对应的模拟能力,定量给出模拟场主要误差的空间信息（误差范围即温度阈值及对应的空间尺度）,例如,亚洲东部地区1月单年及多年平均的模拟场在230 K阈值1600 km模拟技巧非常低。本研究表明强度尺度分解方法适用于气候温度场的检验评估,能定量给出误差的空间信息。  相似文献   

抚顺地区夏季降水异常的气候特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李俊乐  吕志红  张鸿  隋明  马晓晨  刘帅  刘明 《气象科技》2016,44(6):998-1003

利用1951—2012年NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料及章党观测站月平均降水数据,利用统计学方法从大气环流等方面对抚顺地区夏季降水异常气候特征进行了分析探讨。结果表明:抚顺地区夏季降水存在明显年际尺度周期特征,西太平洋副热带高压北界越偏北、强度越强则抚顺地区降水强度越大。抚顺地区降水强(弱)年,500hPa高度场抚顺地区位于距平低涡(高压)底前部,850hPa风场抚顺地区处于西南(偏北)气流控制之下,海平面气压场抚顺地区位于蒙古气旋底前部(反气旋前部),比湿场抚顺位于比湿距平正值(负值)区内。降水强年的温度场距平低值中心落后于500hPa高度场低值中心,利于高空槽的发展,有利于降水的维持加强,降水弱年的温度场距平低值中心与500hPa高度场低值中心相配合,对高空槽脊的发展无明显的影响。  相似文献   

防雷箱残压“二次感应”的研究试验与仿真     

赵阳  孙涌  于跃东 《气象科技》2016,44(3):495-499

防雷箱广泛应用在各类低压配电系统的雷电防护中,为研究防雷箱在8/20μs冲击电流作用下常出现"二次感应"的现象,基于Haefely DIAS 733测试系统通过大量试验,结合电磁感应理论对感应电压进行计算,并利用PSPICE建立感应回路。结果表明:1防雷箱内部平行布线且输入输出同端口时,"二次感应"电压幅值服从电磁感应定律,且可进行较精确计算。2采用双绞线布线、地线与输出线非平行、输入与输出线异端口且与地线非平行3种方法可有效地降低因电磁感应而增加的残压,从而获得较低的输出残压。3试验表明,当内部采用输入与输出线异端口且与地线非平行的综合布线方案后,效果最明显,在60kA冲击电流下,相对未改进的防雷箱,采样点残压下降约45%。  相似文献   

Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios     

Joong-Bae Ahn  Sera Jo  Myoung-Seok Suh  Dong-Hyun Cha  Dong-Kyou Lee  Song-You Hong  Seung-Ki Min  Seong-Chan Park  Hyun-Suk Kang  Kyo-Moon Shim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):223-236

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.  相似文献   

Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature     

Myoung-Seok Suh  Seok-Geun Oh  Young-Suk Lee  Joong-Bae Ahn  Dong-Hyun Cha  Dong-Kyou Lee  Song-You Hong  Seung-Ki Min  Seong-Chan Park  Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):151-169

We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.  相似文献   

Influence of coastal wind on surface ozone and nitrogen oxides in suburban Shanghai     

Wenpo Shan  Peng Yang  Haixia Lu  Kefeng Ma  Zhixin Huang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):451-458

Surface ozone, NO, NO₂, and NO _x were measured at a coastal site (Shihua) and a nearby inland site (Zhujing) in suburban Shanghai for the whole year of 2009. More days with ozone pollution in a longer time range were observed at the coastal site than the inland site. The diurnal variations of NO _x concentrations were obviously higher at Zhujing station, while those of ozone concentrations were higher at Shihua station, indicating their different air pollution conditions. Coastal wind has significant influence on the levels and characteristics of the air pollutants. The ozone concentrations during maritime winds (MW) were much higher than those during continental winds (CW) at each of the site, while the NO and NO₂ concentrations were both opposite. The ozone concentrations at Shihua station were much higher than those at Zhujing station, while the NO and NO₂ concentrations were both opposite. The ozone concentrations at both of the two sites showed a distinct “weekend effects” and “weekdays effects” patterns during CW and MW, respectively. Correlation analysis of the pollutants showed that, the compounds during MW were more age than those during CW, and the compounds at Shihua were more age than those at Zhujing. The air pollutions at both of the two sites are mainly associated with the pollutants emitted in this region instead of long range transport.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS     

Prasanta Kumar Bal  Andimuthu Ramachandran  Kandasamy Palanivelu  Perumal Thirumurugan  Rajadurai Geetha  Balakrishnan Bhaskaran 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):519-519

The author “Bhaski Bhaskaran” and his affiliation “Fujitsu Laboratory of Europe, Middlesex, UK” should be replaced by “Balakrishnan Bhaskaran”, “Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe Limited, Hayes Park, Middlesex, UK”, respectively.The corrected name and affiliation are shown in this erratum.  相似文献   

Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods     

Keunhee Han  JunTae Choi  Chansoo Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):495-507

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.  相似文献