Quantification of parametric uncertainty of ANN models with GLUE method for different streamflow dynamics   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Hakan?TongalEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Martijn?J.?Booij 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(4):993-1010

This study describes the parametric uncertainty of artificial neural networks (ANNs) by employing the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. The ANNs are used to forecast daily streamflow for three sub-basins of the Rhine Basin (East Alpine, Main, and Mosel) having different hydrological and climatological characteristics. We have obtained prior parameter distributions from 5000 ANNs in the training period to capture the parametric uncertainty and subsequently 125,000 correlated parameter sets were generated. These parameter sets were used to quantify the uncertainty in the forecasted streamflow in the testing period using three uncertainty measures: percentage of coverage, average relative length, and average asymmetry degree. The results indicated that the highest uncertainty was obtained for the Mosel sub-basin and the lowest for the East Alpine sub-basin mainly due to hydro-climatic differences between these basins. The prediction results and uncertainty estimates of the proposed methodology were compared to the direct ensemble and bootstrap methods. The GLUE method successfully captured the observed discharges with the generated prediction intervals, especially the peak flows. It was also illustrated that uncertainty bands are sensitive to the selection of the threshold value for the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency measure used in the GLUE method by employing the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test.  相似文献   

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island,Antarctica     

Mario?GómezEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  M.?Concepción Ausín  M.?Carmen Domínguez 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1107-1121

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.  相似文献   

Assessment of the climate change impacts on flood frequency (case study: Bazoft Basin,Iran)     

Parisa?Almasi  Saeid?SoltaniEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1171-1182

The present study attempts to investigate potential impacts of climate change on floods frequency in Bazoft Basin which is located in central part of Iran. A combination of four general circulation models is used through a weighting approach to assess uncertainty in the climate projections. LARS-WG model is applied to downscale large scale atmospheric data to local stations. The resulting data is in turn used as input of the hydrological model Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, plants and atmosphere (WetSpa) to simulate runoff for present (1971–2000), near future (2020–2049) and far future (2071–2100) conditions. Results demonstrate good performance of both WetSpa and LARS-WG models. In addition in this paper instantaneous peak flow (IPF) is estimated using some empirical equations including Fuller, Sangal and Fill–Steiner methods. Comparison of estimated and observed IPF shows that Fill–Steiner is better than other methods. Then different probability distribution functions are fit to IPF series. Results of flood frequency analysis indicate that Pearson III is the best distribution fitted to IPF data. It is also indicated that flood magnitude will decrease in future for all return periods.  相似文献   

Regional bivariate modeling of droughts using L-comoments and copulas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amin?AbdiEmail author  Yousef?Hassanzadeh  Siamak?Talatahari  Ahmad?Fakheri-Fard  Rasoul?Mirabbasi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1199-1210

The regional bivariate modeling of drought characteristics using the copulas provides valuable information for water resources management and drought risk assessment. The regional frequency analysis (RFA) can specify the similar sites within a region using L-comoments approach. One of the important steps in the RFA is estimating regional parameters of the copula function. In the present study, an optimization-based method along with the adjusted charged system search are introduced and applied to estimate the regional parameters of the copula models. The capability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by copula functions on drought events. Three commonly used copulas containing Clayton, Frank and Gumbel are employed to derive the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. The result of the new method are compared to the method of moments and after applying several goodness-of-fit tests, the results indicate that the new method provides higher accuracy than the classic one. Furthermore, the results of the upper tail dependence coefficient indicate that the Gumbel copula is the best-fitted copula among the other ones for modeling drought characteristics.  相似文献   

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application     

Binquan?LiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Zhongmin?Liang  Yingqing?He  Lin?Hu  Weimin?Zhao  Kumud?Acharya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1045-1059

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.  相似文献   

On the criteria of model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting     

Ke-Sheng?ChengEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Yi-Ting?Lien  Yii-Chen?Wu  Yuan-Fong?Su 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1123-1146

Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model.  相似文献   

A big-data spatial,temporal and network analysis of bovine tuberculosis between wildlife (badgers) and cattle     

Aristides?MoustakasEmail author  Matthew?R.?Evans 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(2):315-328

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) poses a serious threat for agricultural industry in several countries, it involves potential interactions between wildlife and cattle and creates societal problems in terms of human-wildlife conflict. This study addresses connectedness network analysis, the spatial, and temporal dynamics of TB between cattle in farms and the European badger (Meles meles) using a large dataset generated by a calibrated agent based model. Results showed that infected network connectedness was lower in badgers than in cattle. The contribution of an infected individual to the mean distance of disease spread over time was considerably lower for badger than cattle; badgers mainly spread the disease locally while cattle infected both locally and across longer distances. The majority of badger-induced infections occurred when individual badgers leave their home sett, and this was positively correlated with badger population growth rates. Point pattern analysis indicated aggregation in the spatial pattern of TB prevalence in badger setts across all scales. The spatial distribution of farms that were not TB free was aggregated at different scales than the spatial distribution of infected badgers and became random at larger scales. The spatial cross correlation between infected badger setts and infected farms revealed that generally infected setts and farms do not coexist except at few scales. Temporal autocorrelation detected a two year infection cycle for badgers, while there was both within the year and longer cycles for infected cattle. Temporal cross correlation indicated that infection cycles in badgers and cattle are negatively correlated. The implications of these results for understanding the dynamics of the disease are discussed.  相似文献   

Impact of sensor measurement error on sensor positioning in water quality monitoring networks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Seong-Hee?Kim  Mustafa?M.?Aral  Yongsoon?Eun  Jisu?J.?Park  Chuljin?ParkEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):743-756

This paper studies the impact of sensor measurement error on designing a water quality monitoring network for a river system, and shows that robust sensor locations can be obtained when an optimization algorithm is combined with a statistical process control (SPC) method. Specifically, we develop a possible probabilistic model of sensor measurement error and the measurement error model is embedded into a simulation model of a river system. An optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal sensor locations that minimize the expected time until a spill detection in the presence of a constraint on the probability of detecting a spill. The experimental results show that the optimal sensor locations are highly sensitive to the variability of measurement error and false alarm rates are often unacceptably high. An SPC method is useful in finding thresholds that guarantee a false alarm rate no more than a pre-specified target level, and an optimization algorithm combined with the thresholds finds a robust sensor network.  相似文献   

Simulating and mapping the risk of surge floods in multiple typhoon scenarios: a case study of Yuhuan County,Zhejiang Province,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mengya?Li  Wei?Wu  Jun?WangEmail author  Zhumei?Che  Yali?Xie 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):645-659

We propose a scenario-based method for simulating and mapping the risk of surge floods for use by local authorities concerned with public safety and urban planning in coastal areas. Focusing on the triad of hazard, vulnerability and adaptation capability, we estimate the comprehensive risk and display its spatial distribution using the raster calculation tool in ArcGIS. The detailed methodology is introduced via a case study of Yuhuan, an island county in Zhejiang Province, China, which is frequently affected by typhoon storm surges. First, we designed 24 typhoon scenarios and modeled the flood process in each scenario using the hydrodynamic module of MIKE 21. Second, flood depth and area were used for hazard assessment; an authorized indicator system of land use categories and a survey of emergency shelters were used for vulnerability and adaptation capability assessment, respectively; and a quantified model was used for assessment of the comprehensive risk. Lastly, we used the GIS raster calculation tool for mapping the risk of storm surges in multiple typhoon scenarios. Our principal findings are as follows: (1) Seawalls are more likely to be overtopped or destroyed by more severe storm surges with increasing typhoon intensity. (2) Most of the residential areas with inadequate emergency shelters are highly vulnerable to flood events. (3) As projected in the risk mapping, if an exceptional typhoon with a central pressure of 915 or 925 hPa made a landfall in Yuhuan, a wide range of areas would be flooded and at high risk. (4) Determining optimal strategies based on identification of risk-inducing factors is the most effective way of promoting safe and sustainable development in coastal cities.  相似文献   

Intercomparison of multiple statistical downscaling methods: multi-criteria model selection for South Korea     

Hyung-Il?EumEmail author  Alex?J.?Cannon  Trevor?Q.?Murdock 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):683-703

A number of statistical downscaling methodologies have been introduced to bridge the gap in scale between outputs of climate models and climate information needed to assess potential impacts at local and regional scales. Four statistical downscaling methods [bias-correction/spatial disaggregation (BCSD), bias-correction/constructed analogue (BCCA), multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA), and bias-correction/climate imprint (BCCI)] are applied to downscale the latest climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) data to stations for precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature over South Korea. All methods are calibrated with observational station data for 19 years from 1973 to 1991 and validated for the more recent 19-year period from 1992 to 2010. We construct a comprehensive suite of performance metrics to inter-compare methods, which is comprised of five criteria related to time-series, distribution, multi-day persistence, extremes, and spatial structure. Based on the performance metrics, we employ technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and apply 10,000 different weighting combinations to the criteria of performance metrics to identify a robust statistical downscaling method and important criteria. The results show that MACA and BCSD have comparable skill in the time-series related criterion and BCSD outperforms other methods in distribution and extremes related criteria. In addition, MACA and BCCA, which incorporate spatial patterns, show higher skill in the multi-day persistence criterion for temperature, while BCSD shows the highest skill for precipitation. For the spatial structure related criterion, BCCA and MACA outperformed BCSD and BCCI. From the TOPSIS analysis, we found that MACA is the most robust method for all variables in South Korea, and BCCA and BCSD are the second for temperature and precipitation, respectively. We also found that the contribution of the multi-day persistence and spatial structure related criteria are crucial to ranking the skill of statistical downscaling methods.  相似文献