Consequences of change and variability in sea ice on marine ecosystem and biogeochemical processes during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program     

David G. Barber  Matthew G. Asplin  Tim N. Papakyriakou  Lisa Miller  Brent G. T. Else  John Iacozza  C. J. Mundy  M. Gosslin  Natalie C. Asselin  Steve Ferguson  Jennifer V. Lukovich  Gary A. Stern  Ashley Gaden  Monika Pu?ko  N.-X. Geilfus  Fei Wang 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):135-159

Change and variability in the timing and magnitude of sea ice geophysical and thermodynamic state have consequences on many aspects of the arctic marine system. The changes in both the geophysical and thermodynamic state, and in particular the timing of the development of these states, have consequences throughout the marine system. In this paper we review the ??consequences?? of change in sea ice state on primary productivity, marine mammal habitats, and sea ice as a medium for storage and transport of contaminants and carbon exchange across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface based upon results from the International Polar Year. Pertinent results include: 1) conditions along ice edges can bring deep nutrient-rich ??pacific?? waters into nutrient-poor surface waters along the arctic coast, affecting local food webs; 2) both sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes ultimately affect ringed seal/polar bear habitats by controlling the timing, location and amount of surface deformation required for ringed seal and polar bear preferred habitat 3) the ice edges bordering open waters of flaw leads are areas of high biological production and are observed to be important beluga habitat. 4) exchange of climate-active gases, including CO₂, is extremely active in sea ice environments, and the overall question of whether the Arctic Ocean is (or will be) a source or sink for CO₂ will be dependent on the balance of competing climate-change feedbacks.  相似文献   

Estimation of relative humidity based on artificial neural network approach in the Aegean Region of Turkey     

Abdulkadir Yasar  Erdo?an Simsek  Mehmet Bilgili  Ahmet Yucel  Ilhami Ilhan 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2012,115(1-2):81-87

The aim of this study is to estimate the monthly mean relative humidity (MRH) values in the Aegean Region of Turkey with the help of the topographical and meteorological parameters based on artificial neural network (ANN) approach. The monthly MRH values were calculated from the measurement in the meteorological observing stations established in Izmir, Mugla, Aydin, Denizli, Usak, Manisa, Kutahya and Afyonkarahisar provinces between 2000 and 2006. Latitude, longitude, altitude, precipitation and months of the year were used in the input layer of the ANN network, while the MRH was used in output layer of the network. The ANN model was developed using MATLAB software, and then actual values were compared with those obtained by ANN and multi-linear regression methods. It seemed that the obtained values were in the acceptable error limits. It is concluded that the determination of relative humidity values is possible at any target point of the region where the measurement cannot be performed.  相似文献   

Criteria for heat and cold wave duration indexes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Djuro Radinovi?  Mladjen ?uri? 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(3-4):505-510

Many areas of society are susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. Without an adequate definition of what constitutes heat and cold waves, it is impossible to assess either their changes in the past or their possible consequences for the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended criteria for heat wave duration indexes based on two arbitrarily defined constants. The principal weakness of this approach is that it does not yield comparable results for different geographical locations. This paper remedies the current lack of a meteorologically based definition of heat and cold waves and offers a preliminary test of its performance. Having previously shown that maximum daily temperature values follow normal frequency distribution, we derive statistical thresholds (e.g., below and above normal) from that distribution. These thresholds are thus climate specific and their change can be compared across geographical locations. These criteria are then tested on the homogeneous time series of maximum daily temperature observed for the period 1961–2008 with respect to three different geographical locations. The results obtained show an increase in the frequency of heat waves for the period 1991–2008 in comparison with the normal climatological period 1961–1990.  相似文献   

An object-based approach for areal rainfall estimation and validation of atmospheric models     

Silke Tr?mel  Clemens Simmer 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2012,115(3-4):139-151

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Determination of surface layer parameters at the edge of a suburban area     

T. Likso  K. Pand?i? 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(3-4):373-384

Vertical wind and air temperature profile related parameters in the surface layer at the edge of suburban area of Zagreb (Croatia) have been considered. For that purpose, adopted Monin–Obukhov similarity theory and a set of observations of wind and air temperature at 2 and 10?m above ground, recorded in 2005, have been used. The root mean square differences (errors) principle has been used as a tool to estimate the effective roughness length as well as standard deviations of wind speed and wind gusts. The results of estimation are effective roughness lengths dependent on eight wind direction sectors unknown before. Gratefully to that achievement, representativeness of wind data at standard 10-m height can be clarified more deeply for an area of at least about 1?km in upwind direction from the observation site. Extrapolation of wind data for lower or higher levels from standard 10-m height are thus properly representative for a wider inhomogeneous suburban area and can be used as such in numerical models, flux and wind energy estimation, civil engineering, air pollution and climatological applications.  相似文献   

Performance of ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Central Europe using various metrics   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Eva Holtanová  Ji?í Mik?ovsky  Jaroslava Kalvová  Petr Pi?oft  Martin Motl 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(3-4):463-470

We show the evaluation of ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis ERA40 over a region centered at the Czech Republic. Attention is paid especially to the model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ, being used as the basis of the new climate change scenarios simulation for the Czech Republic. The validation criteria used here are based on monthly or seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation. We concentrate not only on spatiotemporal mean values but also on temporal standard deviation, inter-annual variability, the mean annual cycle, and the skill of the models to represent the observed spatial patterns of these quantities. Model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ performs quite well in comparison to the other RCMs; we find its performance satisfactory for further use for impact studies. However, it is also shown that the results of evaluation of the RCMs’ skill in simulating observed climate strongly depend on the criteria incorporated for the evaluation.  相似文献   

Special issue: 125?years of high-mountain research at Sonnblick Observatory (Austrian Alps)     

Hartmut Gra?l  Michael Hantel  Mathias W. Rotach  Ernest Rudel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(4):489-490

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The climate tourism potential of Alpine destinations using the example of Sonnblick, Rauris and Salzburg     

Andreas Matzarakis  Martin H?mmerle  Elisabeth Koch  Ernest Rudel 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(4):645-658

The climate tourism potential of a region can be described by methods used in human biometeorology and applied climatology. Frequency analyses based on complex thermal bioclimatic indices (e.g. physiologically equivalent temperature) and diagrams of precipitation patterns based on thresholds offer new approaches of visualisation. An integral approach for tourism climatologic analyses is provided by the climate?Ctourism/transfer?Cinformation?Cscheme that also bases on frequency distributions of relevant factors and parameters which are important for a destination. The knowledge about the vertical variability of tourism climatologic factors is of high importance because of the several kinds of tourism activities affected by weather. The same holds for a quantification of extreme events like heat waves because of their possible effects on health and recreation over a year's course. The results show that the vertical gradient of bioclimatic and tourism-related parameters can be of value when developing strategies of adaption to climate change.  相似文献   

Some evidence on European monsoon existence     

D. Radinovi?  M. ?uri? 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):11-15

Large-scale European atmospheric circulation induced by temperature differences between the continent and the North Atlantic Ocean causes thermodynamic and climatic conditions that initiate a European monsoon. In Eastern Europe, the rainy season occurs in early summer, and the dry season occurs in winter. In Western Europe, the rainy season is in the early winter and the dry season is in the spring. This precipitation trend, as well as other climatic features, suggests the existence of a European monsoon.  相似文献   

Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score     

Jochen Br?cker 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(3-4):655-667

Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.  相似文献