Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development     

Peter H. Whetton  Matthew H. England  Siobhan P. O'Farrell  Ian G. Watterson  A. Barrie Pittock 《Climatic change》1996,33(4):497-519

The extent of agreement amongst current global climate models (GCMs) on the global pattern of rainfall change simulated under enhanced greenhouse conditions is assessed. We consider the results of five experiments which use a simple mixed layer ocean formulation and five which use a fully dynamic ocean model (coupled experiments). For many regions of the northern hemisphere there is strong agreement amongst both mixed layer and coupled experiments on the sign of simulated rainfall change. However, in the southern hemisphere there are large, and apparently systematic, differences between the coupled and mixed layer experiments. In particular, whereas the mixed layer experiments agree on simulated rainfall increase in summer in the tropics and subtropics of the Australian sector, the coupled experiments agree (although more weakly) on rainfall decreases. These differences appear to relate to the much reduced warming simulated by the coupled experiments in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. However, recent oceanographie evidence suggests that this suppressed warming may be considerably overestimated. We conclude therefore that despite the in-principle advantages of coupled models, it may be too soon to base some regionally specific climate change scenarios solely on the results of coupled experiments.  相似文献   

Fluid-rock interaction between syenites and marbles at Stephen Cross Quarry,Québec,Canada: petrological and stable isotope data     

Ian Cartwright  Tamie R. Weaver 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1993,113(4):533-544

Grenville dolomitic marbles and calc-silicates at Stephen Cross Quarry, Québec, underwent contact metamorphism and metasomatism associated with the intrusion of the Wakefield syenite at ambient pressures of 0.4GPa at 1090–1070Ma. Fluid infiltration produced exoskarns, calcite+periclase+forsterite±diopside±orthoclase assemblages in the marbles, and quartz±calcite±wollastonite±diopside±anorthite assemblages in the calc-silicates. Phase-equilibria in the CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–CO₂ system suggest that fluid infiltration occurred close to the thermal peak of contact metamorphism (715–815°C) and that the fluids hadXCO₂0.15. In the metasediments, ¹⁸O values of calcite (Cc) are as low as 8.6, suggesting that the fluids were in isotopic equilibrium with the syenites (¹⁸O =8.8–10.2). Marble ¹³C(Cc) values are-0.1 to-3.2; the lack of correlation between ¹³C(Cc) and ¹⁸O(Cc) is consistent with the infiltration of water-rich fluids. The resetting of stable isotopes and the mineralogical changes can be explained by time-integrated fluid fluxes of up to 110 m³/m² (4×10⁶ mol/m²), corresponding to actual fluxes of 3×10^-11 to 3×10^-12 m³/m²-s and intrinsic permeabilities of 10^-18 to 10^-20 m² for fluid flow lasting 0.1-1Ma. Marble ¹⁸O(Cc) values do not correlate well with distance from the syenite, and fluids were probably channelled across lithological layering. The correlation between the degree of resetting of marble ¹⁸O(Cc) values with the abundance of submillimetre-wide veins, suggests that fluid focussing may have resulted from variations in fracture density. Late, lower temperature (<500°C), fluid flow formed serpentine (Serp) and brucite (Br) from periclase and forsterite. ¹⁸O(Br) and ¹⁸O(Scrp) values correlate with ¹⁸O(Cc), suggesting that retrogression involved only limited volumes of fluid. The observation that ¹⁸O(Cc-Br) and ¹⁸O(Cc-Serp) values are higher in marbles that have lower ¹⁸O(Cc) values is interpreted as indicating that fluid flow persisted to lower temperatures in those rocks due to higher intrinsic permeabilities. Calcite in the syenite was also formed by the influx of fluids during cooling. Syenite ¹⁸O(Cc) values are approximately in isotopic equilibrium with the high-temperature silicate minerals, suggesting that again only minor volumes of fluid were involved. In detail fluid flow was prolonged and complex, creating problems for the application of quantitative fluid flow models.This paper is a contribution to IGCP 304, Lower Crustal Processes  相似文献   

Malta: macropolitical threats     

Ian R. Baggett 《GeoJournal》1997,41(2):165-171

Despite constitutional neutrality and non-alignment, for the last decade Malta has dabbled in Western security circles. By pledging commitment to the European CFSP and forging closer associations with NATO the government consummated allegiances with the hegemonic flank of their region and the only remaining superpower. However, Maltese security in the post-Cold War era is about more than just power fealty. Whilst not overlooking the still highly relevant military threats to security, this paper elucidates three macropolitical threats that are too impetuous for the worlds most powerful security organizations to handle. Indeed, future Maltese membership of the WEU or closer ties with NATO may even exacerbate these menaces.  相似文献   

IGU special issue on population redistribution in Asia and the Pacific region     

Clarke JI  Kawabe H 《Population geography : a journal of the Association of Population Geographers of India》1981,3(1-2):1-120

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Observations of cosmic gamma-ray bursts     

Ray WM. Klebesadel  Ian B. Strong 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1976,42(1):3-15

The occasional occurrence of brief but intense bursts of cosmic gamma-rays was disclosed through a systematic search of data acquired from the Vela satellites. Confirmation of the nature of the events and additional detail of their characteristics has subsequently been provided by 15 other groups of experimenters with instruments on 13 spacecraft. Thirty-nine such events have been identified from data spanning a period of four and a half years. The record of intensity as a function of time varies considerably for different events, with total durations ranging from 0.1 to 60s. Time-integrated flux density ranges from 10^–6 to 10^–3 erg cm^–2. Spectral measurements have been accomplished by several groups of experimenters, showing a broad maximum in the energy distribution at about 150 keV. The distribution of source directions implies either near galactic or extragalactic locations. The existing data are not sufficient to distinguish between the various models proposed to explain the phenomenon; no model is completely consistent with all observed characteristics.Work performed under the auspices of the United States Energy Research and Development Administration.Paper presented at the COSPAR Symposium on Fast Transients in X-and Gamma-Rays, held at Varna, Bulgaria, 29–31 May, 1975.  相似文献   

Introduction to special issue: Dynamics of seismicity patterns and earthquake triggering     

Sebastian Hainzl  Gert Zller  Ian Main 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):135

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Monazite behaviour and age significance in poly-metamorphic high-grade terrains: A case study from the western Musgrave Block, central Australia     

Nigel M. Kelly  Geoffrey L. Clarke  Simon L. Harley 《Lithos》2006,88(1-4):100-134

Integrated, in situ textural, chemical and electron microprobe age analysis of monazite grains in a migmatitic metapelitic gneiss from the western Musgrave Block, central Australia has identified evidence for multiple events of growth and recrystallisation during poly-metamorphism in the Mesoproterozoic. Garnet + sillimanite-bearing metapelite underwent partial melting and segregation to palaeosome and leucosome during metamorphism between 1330 and 1296 Ma, with monazite grains in leucosome recording crystallisation at 1300 Ma. Monazite breakdown during melting is inferred to have occurred in the palaeosome. During a subsequent granulite facies event at 1200 Ma, deformation and metamorphism of leucosome and palaeosome resulted in partial disturbance of ages and potential minor growth on 1300 Ma monazite in leucosome. Growth of new, high-Y (+HREE) monazite in palaeosome domains occurred during garnet breakdown in the presence of sillimanite to cordierite and spinel, as a result of post-peak isothermal decompression. Diffusive enrichment of resorbed garnet rims in Y + HREE suggests garnet breakdown occurred slower than volume diffusion of REE. Monazite in both palaeosome and leucosome were subsequently partially to penetratively recrystallised during a retrogression event that is suggested to have occurred at 1150–1130 Ma. The intensity of recrystallisation and disturbance of ages appears linked to proximity to retrogressed garnet porphyroblasts and their occurrence in the relatively reactive or ‘fertile’ local environments provided by the palaeosome/mesosome volumes, which caused localised changes in retrogressive fluids towards compositions more aggressive to monazite. Like reaction textures, it is apparent that domainal equilibrium and reaction may control or at least strongly influence monazite REE and U–Th–Pb chemistry and hence ages.  相似文献   

Shape and distribution analysis of Merensky Reef potholing, Northam Platinum Mine, western Bushveld Complex: implications for pothole formation and growth     

Damian S. Smith  Ian J. Basson 《Mineralium Deposita》2006,41(3):281-295

Syn-magmatic removal of the cumulate pile during the formation of the Bushveld Complex resulted in “potholes”. Erosion progressed downward in the cumulate pile, resulting in a series of steep, transgressive contacts between locally conformable potholed reefs in the regional pothole sub-facies of the Swartklip Facies in the western limb of the Bushveld Complex. The deepest of these potholes, “third-order” or “FWP2” potholing, occurs where the base of the Merensky Cyclic Unit transgresses the Upper Pseudo-Reef Chromitite marker horizon. The base of a FWP2 pothole on Northam Platinum Mine consists of an unconformable stringer Merensky Chromitite overlain by a medium-grained, poikilitic orthopyroxenite and underlain by either a pegmatitic harzburgite or the medium-grained Lower Pseudo-Reef Anorthosite. Detailed shape and distribution analysis of FWP2 potholes reveals underlying patterns in their shape and distribution which, in turn, suggest a structural control. The ratio between pothole short vs long axes is 0.624 (N=1,385), although the ratio increases from 0.48 to 0.61 in the long axis range 10 to 60 m, then decreases from 0.61 to 0.57 from 61 to 100 m, increasing again from 0.57 to 0.61 from 101 to 400 m, suggesting that there is not a simple relationship between pothole shape and size. Shape (circularity, eccentricity, and dendricity) analysis of a subset of 638 potholes indicates that potholes with long axes <100 m have an elliptical, average normalized shape, elongate on a 120–150° orientation. Potholes with long axis lengths >100 m have an average normalized shape that is bilobate and elongate on a 120° orientation. The average aspect ratio (short axis length divided by long axis length) of potholes is highest for potholes with long axis lengths >100 m and lowest for potholes with long axis lengths between 35 and 60 m. The most common long axis orientation for potholes with long axis lengths <100 m is 150° but 120° for long axis lengths >100 m. Fractal analysis indicates that the distribution of pothole centers is controlled neither by a single nor several interacting fractal dimensions. Autocorrelation (Fry) analysis of the distribution of pothole centers shows recurring pothole distribution trends at 038, 070, and 110° for potholes over the full range of long axis lengths, while the trends of 008 and 152° occur in potholes with long axes lengths between 60 and 100 m. Chi-squared (X ²) analysis of the locations of pothole centers suggests that the distribution of small potholes is highly non-uniform but becomes exponentially more uniform with increasing pothole size. The model which best fits the observed shape and distribution analysis is a combination of protracted independent growth and “nearest neighbor” merging along specific orientations. For instance, the clustered distribution of original pothole centers resulted in merged potholes with long axes lengths of up to 60 m, exhibiting short vs long axes ratios of 0.61, preferred orientations of 150°, and alignment along 010 and 150° trends. Further independent growth allowed for merging of similar-sized (and smaller) neighboring potholes, generating potholes with long axes of up to 100 m in length, a preferred long axis orientation of 150°, and alignment along 010, 040, 075, and 150°. Subsequent preferential merging occurred along a 120° trend, thereby preserving a bilobate form. This implies that while pothole initiation and enlargement may be driven by a “top-down” (i.e., possibly thermomechanical) process, an underlying linear or structural catalyst/control is revealed in changes in pothole shape during enlargement and, furthermore, in the preferred trends along which potholes merged over a considerable period, possibly concomitant with adjustment of major structures in the footwall to the Bushveld Complex and pulses into the magma chamber.  相似文献   

Mixing and differentiation in the Oruanui rhyolitic magma, Taupo, New Zealand: evidence from volatiles and trace elements in melt inclusions     

Yang Liu  Alfred T. Anderson  Colin J. N. Wilson  Andrew M. Davis  Ian M. Steele 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2006,151(1):71-87

Large pyroclastic rhyolites are snapshots of evolving magma bodies, and preserved in their eruptive pyroclasts is a record of evolution up to the time of eruption. Here we focus on the conditions and processes in the Oruanui magma that erupted at 26.5 ka from Taupo Volcano, New Zealand. The 530 km³ (void-free) of material erupted in the Oruanui event is comparable in size to the Bishop Tuff in California, but differs in that rhyolitic pumice and glass compositions, although variable, did not change systematically with eruption order. We measured the concentrations of H₂O, CO₂ and major and trace elements in zoned phenocrysts and melt inclusions from individual pumice clasts covering the range from early to late erupted units. We also used cathodoluminescence imaging to infer growth histories of quartz phenocrysts. For quartz-hosted inclusions, we studied both fully enclosed melt inclusions and reentrants (connecting to host melt through a small opening). The textures and compositions of inclusions and phenocrysts reflect complex pre-eruptive processes of incomplete assimilation/partial melting, crystallization differentiation, magma mixing and gas saturation. ‘Restitic’ quartz occurs in seven of eight pumice clasts studied. Variations in dissolved H₂O and CO₂ in quartz-hosted melt inclusions reflect gas saturation in the Oruanui magma and crystallization depths of ∼3.5–7 km. Based on variations of dissolved H₂O and CO₂ in reentrants, the amount of exsolved gas at the beginning of eruption increased with depth, corresponding to decreasing density with depth. Pre-eruptive mixing of magma with varying gas content implies variations in magma bulk density that would have driven convective mixing. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users.  相似文献   

Near Wall Flow over Urban-like Roughness   总被引：3，自引：35，他引：3  

Hong Cheng  Ian P. Castro 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,104(2):229-259

In this study, comprehensive measurements over a number of urban-type surfaces with the same area density of 25% have been performed in a wind tunnel. The experiments were conducted at a free stream velocity of 10 m s^-1 and the main instrumentation was 120 ° x-wire anemometry, but measurement accuracy was checked using laser Doppler anemometry.The results haveconfirmed the strong three-dimensionalityof the turbulent flow inthe roughness sublayer and the depths of the inertial sublayer (log-law region) and roughness sublayer for each surface have been determined. Spatial averaging has been used to remove the variability of the flow in the roughness sublayer due to individual obstacles and it is shown that the spatially averaged mean velocity in the inertial sublayer and roughness sublayer can,together, be described by a single log-law with a mean zero-plane displacement and roughness length for the surface, provided that the proper surface stress is known. The spatially averaged shear stresses in the inertial sublayer and roughness sublayer are compared with the surface stress deduced from form drag measurements on the roughness elements themselves.The dispersive stress arising from the spatial inhomogeneity in the mean flow profiles was deduced from the data and is shown to be negligible compared with the usual Reynolds stresses in the roughness sublayer. Comparisons have been made between a homogeneous (regular element array) surface and one consisting of random height elements of the same total volume. Although the upper limits of the inertial sublayer for both surfaces were almost identical at equivalent fetch, the roughness sublayer was much thicker for the random surface than for the uniform surface, the friction velocity and the roughness length were significantly larger and the `roughness efficiency' was greater. It is argued that the inertial sublayer may not exist at all in some of the more extreme rough urban areas. These results will provide fundamental information for modelling urban air quality and forecasting urban wind climates.  相似文献