Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles     

Takeshi Kuramochi  Jusen Asuka  Hanna Fekete  Kentaro Tamura  Niklas Höhne 《Climate Policy》2016,16(8):1029-1047

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.  相似文献   

The Nature of Mantle Rocks in Ophiolites of the Polar Urals     

V. R. Shmelev  S. Arai  A. Tamura 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2018,479(2):472-476

This work presents the results of geochemical (LA-ICP-MS) study of minerals of peridotites from ophiolite complexes of the Polar Urals to clarify the nature of these formations. The distribution of trace and rare earth elements in clinopyroxenes testifies that there were three types of the mantle substratum, which formed in different geodynamic settings. Two types of primary peridotites were formed upon partial melting of the mantle at different-depth levels in the subduction zone. The first type is represented by lherzolites and diopside harzburgites, formed at partial melting under the spinel facies conditions; the second type is represented by diopside harzburgites, formed under polybaric partial melting under the garnet and spinel facies conditions. In the suprasubduction zone, peridotites experienced fluid-induced partial melting that resulted in crystallization of harzburgites. All types of harzburgites were transformed by ascending melts and fluids (refertilization) and high-temperature hydration with the formation of amphibole. These processes are recorded in variations in the REE spectra of minerals.  相似文献   

Do sedentary behavior and physical activity spatially cluster? Analysis of a population-based sample of Boston adolescents     

Kosuke Tamura  Dustin T. Duncan  Jessica Athens  Marc Scott  Michael RientiJr.  Jared Aldstadt  Laurie M. Brotman  Brian Elbel 《GeoJournal》2018,83(4):775-782

Sedentary behavior and lack of physical activity are key modifiable behavioral risk factors for chronic health problems, such as obesity and diabetes. Little is known about how sedentary behavior and physical activity among adolescents spatially cluster. The objective was to detect spatial clustering of sedentary behavior and physical activity among Boston adolescents. Data were used from the 2008 Boston Youth Survey Geospatial Dataset, a sample of public high school students who responded to a sedentary behavior and physical activity questionnaire. Four binary variables were created: (1) TV watching (>2 h/day), (2) video games (>2 h/day), (3) total screen time (>2 h/day); and (4) 20 min/day of physical activity (≥5 days/week). A spatial scan statistic was utilized to detect clustering of sedentary behavior and physical activity. One statistically significant cluster of TV watching emerged among Boston adolescents in the unadjusted model. Students inside the cluster were more than twice as likely to report >2 h/day of TV watching compared to respondents outside the cluster. No significant clusters of sedentary behavior and physical activity emerged. Findings suggest that TV watching is spatially clustered among Boston adolescents. Such findings may serve to inform public health policy-makers by identifying specific locations in Boston that could provide opportunities for policy intervention. Future research should examine what is linked to the clusters, such as neighborhood environments and network effects.  相似文献   

Potential of mosques to serve as evacuation shelters for foreign Muslims during disasters: a case study in Gunma,Japan     

Kotani  Hitomu  Tamura  Mari  Li  Jiayue  Yamaji  Eiji 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1407-1423

Natural Hazards - Foreigners tend to be vulnerable to disasters due to religious and cultural differences. In Japan, Muslim foreign residents, who are minorities, likely face difficulties in terms...  相似文献   

Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios     

Tamura  Makoto  Kumano  Naoko  Yotsukuri  Mizuki  Yokoki  Hiromune 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):363-377

Climatic Change - The objective of this study is to assess the global impact of sea level rise and to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation. Global areas of inundation due to sea level rise are...  相似文献   

Estimates of non-tidal exchange transport between the Sea of Okhotsk and the North Pacific     

Katsuro Katsumata  Ichiro Yasuda 《Journal of Oceanography》2010,66(4):489-504

The outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk to the North Pacific is important in characterising the surface-to-intermediate-depth water masses in the Pacific Ocean. The two basins are separated by the Kuril Islands with numerous straits, among which the Bussol and the Kruzenshterna Straits are deeper than 1000 m. The physics governing the transport between the two basins is complicated, but when the semidiurnal and diurnal tides are subtracted, the observed density and velocity structures across the Bussol Strait suggest a significant contribution from geostrophic balance. Using a two-layer model with the interface at 27.5σ _θ , part of the upper layer transport that is not driven by tides is estimated using two previously unexplored data sets: outputs from the Ocean General Circulation Model for Earth Simulator (OFES), and historical hydrographic data. The Pacific water flows into the Sea of Okhotsk through the northeastern straits. The greatest inflow is through the Kruzenshtern Strait, but the OFES results show that the contributions from other shallower straits are almost half of the Kruzenshtern inflow. Similarly, the outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk is through the southwestern straits of the Kuril Islands with the largest Bussol Strait contributing 60% of the total outflow. The OFES and hydrographic estimates agree that the exchange is strongest in February to March, with an inflow of about −6 to −12 Sv (negative indicates the flow from the North Pacific, 1 Sv = 10⁶ m³s⁻¹), and an outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk of about +8 to +9 Sv (positive indicates the flow from the Sea of Okhotsk), which is weakest in summer (−3 to +1 Sv through the northeastern straits and +0 to +3 Sv through the southwestern straits). The estimated seasonal variation is consistent with a simple analytic model driven by the difference in sea surface height between the two basins.  相似文献   

Geophysical analysis of zonal tidal signals in length of day   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Benjamin Fong Chao  James B. Merriam  Yoshiaki Tamura 《Geophysical Journal International》1995,122(3):765-775

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Geochemistry of newly discovered quaternary Shiribeshi Volcano,Northeast Japan Sea     

Dr. K. Shuto  Dr. N. Tsuchiya  Dr. S. Tamura  Dr. H. Kagami 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1991,44(3-4):213-234

Summary Shiribeshi Seamount is located to the east of the Okushiri Ridge, in the northeast Japan Sea. Whole rock K-Ar age of olivine-augite andesite dredged from the Seamount was determined to be 0.9 ± 0.2 Ma (Tsuchiya et al., 1989), indicating that Shiribeshi Seamount is a Quaternary volcano in the back-arc region off the junction of the Northeast Japan and Kurile arcs. Shiribeshi volcano is composed of basalt to rhyolite, which show a typical island arc calc-alkaline nature on the basis of petrographical characteristics of 95 samples dredged from four sites. Abundances of incompatible elements including K, Rb, Sr, Nb, P, Ti, Y and Zr in 16 representative rocks are discussed, together with those in the Quaternary volcanic rocks from the NE Japan and Kurile arcs in terms of compositional variation across the arcs. The estimated composition of the primary magma of Shiribeshi volcano is characterized by higher incompatible element contents and a higher Zr/Y ratio than primary magmas in the volcanic front side. Based on HFS element concentrations the degree of partial melting for three primary magmas of Oshima-Oshima, Shiribeshi and Rishiri volcanoes in the northeast Japan Sea may decrease gradually with increasing distance from the volcanic front. However, LIL element contents, especially K and Rb are lower in the primary magma of Rishiri volcano located far from the volcanic front than in the remaining two primary magmas, which would imply that LIL/HFS ratios (or degree of contribution of LIL elements originating from the subducted oceanic crust) become minimal at Rishiri volcano. One basalt and three andesites from Shiribeshi volcano have the restricted range of low⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.70297–0.70300, which indicates that the magma source for Shiribeshi volcano may be slightly more enriched in Sr isotopic compositions than theN-type MORB source.

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Geochemie des neuentdeckten quartären submarinen Vulkans Shiribeshi im Nordöstlichen Japanischen Meer

Zusammenfassung Der Shiribeshi Seamount liegt östlich des Okushiri Rückens im nordöstlichen Japanischen Meer. Gesamtgesteins K-Ar Alter von Olivin-Augit-Andesiten von diesem Seamount ergeben Werte von 0,9 ± 0,2 Ma (Tsuchiya et al., 1989), und weisen darauf hin, daß Shiribeshi ein quartärer Vulkan im back-arc Bereich nahe dem Kreuzungspunkt des nordostjapanischen und des Kurilen-Inselbogens ist. Er besteht aus Gesteinen, deren Zusammensetzung von Basalt bis Rhyolit reicht. Petrographische Daten von 25 Proben, die von vier submarinen Lokationen durch Dredging aufgesammelt wurden, weisen auf eine typische kalk-alkalische Inselbogenzusammensetzung hin. Die Verbreitung von inkompatiblen Elementen, die unter anderem K, Rb, Sr, Nb, P, Ti, Y und Zr umfassen, in 16 representativen Proben wird zusammen mit denen von quartären vulkanischen Gesteinen aus dem nordöstlichen Japanischen und den Kurilen-Inselbogen diskutiert; dabei wird Variationen der Zusammensetzung über die Bögen hinweg besondere Beachtung geschenkt. Die so ermittelte Zusammensetzung des primären Magmas des Shiribeshi Vulkans wird durch höhere inkompatible Elementgehalte und höhere Zr/Y Verhältnisse charakterisiert, wenn man sie mit primären Magmen an der vulkanischen Stirn des Inselbogens vergleicht. HFS Element-Konzentrationen lassen erkennen, daß der Grad teilweiser Aufschmelzung für drei primäre Magmen von Oshima-Oshima, Shiribeshi und Rishiri im nordöstlichen Japanischen Meer graduell mit zunehmender Entfernung von der vulkanischen Stirm abnimmt. Die Gehalte an LIL Elementen und besonders an K und Rb sind in dem primären Magma des Rishiri Vulkans, der weit von der vulkanischen Front entfernt liegt, höher als in den zwei anderen primären Magmen. Dies weist darauf hin, daß LIL/HFS Verhältnisse (oder der Beitrag von LIL Elementen, die aus subduzierter ozeanischer Kruste stammen) am Rishiri Vulkan ein Minimum erreichen. Ein Basalt und drei Andesite von Shiribeshi zeigen⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr Verhältnisse von 0,70297 bis 0,70300; dies läßt erkennen, daß die Quelle des Magmas für Shiribeshi etwas mehr an⁸⁷Sr angereichert war, als dieN-Typ Quelle.

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With 7 Figures  相似文献   

Nucleation,growth and stability of CaAl2Si2O8 polymorphs     

Toshiya Abe  Katsuo sukamoto  Ichiro Sunagawa 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1991,17(6):473-484

By means of in situ observation, the nucleation and growth of triclinic, pseudo-orthorhombic and pseudo-hexagonal CaAl₂Si₂O₈ were investigated and their relative stabilities established. Pseudo-hexagonal and pseudo-orthorhombic CaAl₂Si₂O₈ nucleate prior to anorthite and grow in a supercooled anorthite melt before the latter appears. They either dissolve or transform to anorthite once the latter nucleates and starts to grow. Corundum and mullite also nucleate metastably prior to anorthite in this melt. The liquidus temperatures of the four metastably nucleated phases were determined precisely by in situ measurements of the transformation temperatures from a polyhedral to a rounded morphology. On the basis of the supercooling thus determined, the growth rate versus supercooling relations were measured and analysed for the respective phases. The growth rate of the stable phase is one order of magnitude higher than those of any metastable phases. However, the growth rates of the three CaAl₂Si₂O₈ polymorphs normalized by the viscosities are nearly the same.  相似文献   

Radiation induced lattice defects in natural zircon (ZrSiO4) observed at atomic resolution     

Keiji Yada  Takayoshi Tanji  Ichiro Sunagawa 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1987,14(3):197-204

Fission tracks and point defects in natural zircon are directly observed by a 1 MV electron microscope at atomic resolution for three types of samples adjusted to the 100 orientation. Lattice planes intersecting the fission tracks at high angles are distorted in a rather irregular manner over a wide region up to more than 100 Å wide. Diameter of the tracks, ranging from 25 Å to 40Å, is much narrower than those so far reported for the U-doped synthetic zircon (100–200 Å), UO₂ thin film (100 Å), mica (66 Å, 240 Å) or fluorophlogopite (150 Å). The fact that fairly long tracks thousands of angstroms in length are observed in thin 100-oriented sample hundreds of angstroms in thickness and that some of them are nearly parallel to a low index lattice plane suggest a possible occurrence of channelling in the process of track formation. Parallel tracks often observed in chemically etched specimens support the idea of channelling. Slightly bent tracks are sometimes observed. It is concluded from computer simulation that many contrast anomalies of bright and dark spots in the lattice image are due to point defects of vacancies and interstitial atoms, mainly produced by the direct atomic collision with α-particles or by passage of ionizing nuclear particles. Optimum conditions of the observation of point defects with highest contrast are studied. One interstitial Zr atom or one Zr ion vacancy will give very low contrast and will be not detectable unless the crystal is less than two unit cells thick. A pair of Zr ion vacancies, however, yields extended detectable limit of thickness. Some of the observed defects are in good accordance with those simulated.  相似文献