Observational uncertainties in hypothesis testing: investigating the hydrological functioning of a tropical catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Ida K. Westerberg  Christian Birkel 《水文研究》2015,29(23):4863-4879

Hypothesis testing about catchment functioning with conceptual hydrological models is affected by uncertainties in the model representation of reality as well as in the observed data used to drive and evaluate the model. We formulated a learning framework to investigate the role of observational uncertainties in hypothesis testing using conceptual models and applied it to the relatively data‐scarce tropical Sarapiqui catchment in Costa Rica. Observational uncertainties were accounted for throughout the framework that incorporated different choices of model structures to test process hypotheses, analyses of parametric uncertainties and effects of likelihood choice, a posterior performance analysis and (iteratively) formulation of new hypotheses. Estimated uncertainties in precipitation and discharge were linked to likely non‐linear near‐surface runoff generation and the potentially important role of soils in mediating the hydrological response. Some model‐structural inadequacies could be identified in the posterior analyses (supporting the need for an explicit soil‐moisture routine to match streamflow dynamics), but the available information about the observational uncertainties prevented conclusions about other process representations. The importance of epistemic data errors, the difficulty in quantifying them and their effect on model simulations was illustrated by an inconsistent event with long‐term effects. Finally we discuss the need for new data, new process hypotheses related to deep groundwater losses, and conclude that observational uncertainties need to be accounted for in hypothesis testing to reduce the risk of drawing incorrect conclusions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Barents-Kara sea ice and European winters in EC-Earth     

Ringgaard  Ida Margrethe  Yang  Shuting  Kaas  Eigil  Christensen  Jens Hesselbjerg 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(7):3323-3338

Climate Dynamics - The potential link between decreasing Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winters in Europe is investigated using the enhanced resolution (horizontal atmospheric resolution of $$\sim...  相似文献   

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*     

Ida K. Westerberg  Giuliano Di Baldassarre  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(13-14):2001-2003

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.  相似文献   

Modelling elastic properties of impure chalk from South Arne Field, North Sea     

Ida L. Fabricius  Christian Høier  Peter Japsen  Uffe Korsbech 《Geophysical Prospecting》2007,55(4):487-506

In impure chalk, the elastic moduli are not only controlled by porosity but also by contact‐cementation, resulting in relatively large moduli for a given porosity, and by admixtures of clay and fine silica, which results in relatively small moduli for a given porosity. Based on a concept of solids suspended in pore fluids as well as composing the rock frame, we model P‐wave and S‐wave moduli of dry and wet plug samples by an effective‐medium Hashin–Shtrikman model, using chemical, mineralogical and textural input. For a given porosity, the elastic moduli correspond to a part of the solid (the iso‐frame value) forming the frame of an Upper Hashin–Shtrikman bound, whereas the remaining solid is modelled as suspended in the pore fluid. The iso‐frame model is thus a measure of the pore‐stiffness or degree of cementation of the chalk. The textural and mineralogical data may be assessed from logging data on spectral gamma radiation, density, sonic velocity and water saturation in a hydrocarbon zone, whereas the iso‐frame value of a chalk may be assessed from the density and acoustic P‐wave logs alone. The iso‐frame concept may thus be directly used in conventional log‐analysis and is a way of incorporating sonic‐logging data. The Rigs‐1 and Rigs‐2 wells in the South Arne field penetrate the chalk at the same depth but differ in porosity and in water saturation although almost the entire chalk interval has irreducible water saturation. Our model, combined with petrographic data, indicates that the difference in porosity is caused by a higher degree of pore‐filling cementation in Rigs‐1. Petrographic data indicate that the difference in water saturation is caused by a higher content of smectite in the pores of Rigs‐1. In both wells, we find submicron‐size diagenetic quartz.  相似文献   

Scale-recursive assimilation of precipitation data     

Ida Primus Gorenburg  Dennis McLaughlin  Dara Entekhabi   《Advances in water resources》2001,24(9-10)

This paper presents a new statistical method for assimilating precipitation data from different sensors operating over a range of scales. The technique is based on a scale-recursive estimation algorithm which is computationally efficient and able to account for the nested spatial structure of precipitation fields. The version of the algorithm described here relies on a static multiplicative cascade model which relates rainrates at different scales. Bayesian estimation techniques are used to condition rainrate estimates on measurements. The conditioning process is carried out recursively in two sweeps: first from fine to coarse scales and then from coarse to fine scales. The complete estimation algorithm is similar to a fixed interval smoother although it processes data over scale rather than time. We use this algorithm to assimilate radar and satellite microwave data collected during the tropical ocean–global atmosphere coupled ocean–atmosphere response experiment (TOGA-COARE). The resulting rainrate estimates reproduce withheld radar measurements to within the level of accuracy predicted by the assimilation algorithm.  相似文献   

Ice conditions in Zalew Szczecinski (Stettiner Haff) and in Zatoka Pomorska (Pomeranian Bight) during the winter of 1996/97     

Dr. Natalija Schmelzer  Dr. Marzenna Sztobryn  Ida Stanisławczyk 《Ocean Dynamics》1996,48(2):197-202

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The eastern and western ends of Nankai Trough: results of Box 5 and Box 7 Kaiko survey     

X. Le Pichon  T. Iiyama  H. Chamley  J. Charvet  M. Faure  H. Fujimoto  T. Furuta  Y. Ida  H. Kagami  S. Lallemant  J. Leggett  A. Murata  H. Okada  C. Rangin  V. Renard  A. Taira  H. Tokuyama 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1987,83(1-4)

Seabeam mapping and detailed geophysical surveying have been conducted over the Nankai Trough where the fossil Shikoku Ridge is subducted below southwest Japan. The geometry of the oceanic lithosphere bending under the margin as well as the three-dimensional structure of the accretionary prism have thus been determined in detail. Three 350° trending, probably transform faults have been identified in the area of the survey. They do not extend further south and appear to be limited to the last phase of spreading within the Shikoku Basin, probably between 15 and 12 Ma; this last phase of spreading would then have been accompanied by a sharp change in spreading direction from east-west to N 350°. The two eastern transform faults limit a zone of reduced Nankai trench fill of turbidites opposite to the Tosa Bae Embayment. This observation suggests that the Tosa Bae Embayment actually results from this reduced supply of trench fill to the imbricate thrusting process. The accretionary prism can be divided into three different tectonic provinces separated by continuous mappable thrusts, the Lower and Upper Main Thrusts. Surface shortening is limited to the lower accretionary prism south of the Upper Main Thrust (UMT) whereas uplift with possible extension characterizes the prism above the UMT. Deformation, due to the relative plate motion, mostly affects the lower accretionary prism south of the UMT.  相似文献   

Propagation of slip along frictional surfaces     

Yoshiaki Ida 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,116(4-5):943-953

The propagation of slip along a pre-existing frictional plane is formulated for the faults containing interstitial fluid. When normal and shear stresses satisfy the effective frictional law, a frictional sliding occurs stably or unstably, depending on the inhomogeneities of the surface. For a slip to rapidly sweep the surface, the pore pressure of fluid must exceed the critical value that is related to the physical or geometrical irregularities of the surface. If this condition fails, stable sliding is expected, analogous to a seismic fault creep. This prediction makes the role of water in seismic faulting more clear.  相似文献   

Interionic repulsive force and compressibility of ions     

Yoshiaki Ida 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1976,13(2):97-104

The compressibility of an individual ion is examined, in comparison with a known set of data for the alkali halides. A simple extrapolation of ionic radius to high pressure is not acceptable, because the pressure derivative of ionic radius changes for different salts. According to the classical concept of an elastic ion, the repulsive potential energy between the ions i and j is specified by the nature of each ion as: as a function of the interionic distance r. In this expression, q_i and ρ_i are the ionic radius and ionic compressibility, respectively, in a suitably modified meaning. Such a form of the repulsive potential fits well to the data of lattice constants and bulk moduli. The parameters q_i and ρ_i are evaluated for alkali and halogen ions, and an anion turns out to be much more compressible than a cation. The present treatment may be usefully applied to the minerals in the Earth's mantle, which contain only a few major ions.  相似文献   

High-arctic fan delta recording deglaciation and environment disequilibrium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ida Lønne  W. Nemec† 《Sedimentology》2004,51(3):553-589

Study of a Holocene fan delta in Adventfjorden, Spitsbergen, provides new insight into the nature of high‐arctic coastal sedimentation and deglaciation dynamics. The fjord‐side, gravelly Gilbert‐type fan delta began to form at the local marine limit c. 10 ka BP, supplied seasonally with sediment by meltwater from a cirque glacier left behind by the retreating Late Weichselian ice sheet. Relative sea level had fallen by 63 m, and the fan delta reached a radius of c. 1 km by 6 ka BP, when the relic glacier eventually melted down and fluvial activity declined. A strong influence of marine processes is recorded by the fan‐delta foreset facies, overlain by alluvium. Supplied with sediment by longshore drift, the fan‐delta front continued to advance at a lower rate, while relative sea level fell further by 5 m and ceased to fall around 5·4 ka BP. The following transgression was countered by longshore sediment supply until 4·7 ka BP, when the delta‐front beach aggraded and a spit platform began to climb onto the delta plain, recording a relative sea‐level rise of 4 m. The subsequent regression was initially non‐depositional, with the relative sea level falling by > 4 m in 200 years, outpacing fluvial supply, and the re‐emerging fan delta being swept by longshore currents. A regressive beach began to form c. 4·3 ka BP, while relative sea level gradually reached its present‐day position. The feeder braided stream was wandering across the delta plain during this time, but incised once the fan‐delta shoreline began to retreat by wave erosion and turned into a receding modern escarpment. The stream has since been adjusting its profile by gradually eroding the pre‐existing alluvium and distributing the coarse sediment supplied from catchment slopes by debrisflows and snow avalanches. Modern snowflows have also spread debris onto the abandoned fan surface. The erosional retreat of the fan delta has been accompanied by lateral shoreline accretion on both its sides. The study has important regional implications and demonstrates that Holocene fan deltas can provide a valuable record of the deglaciation history in high‐arctic terrains, where glacial deposits are scarcely preserved on land.  相似文献