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Loss ratio, which is the ratio of the repair cost to the total replacement cost, is an effective parameter for representing structural and nonstructural damage caused by earthquakes. A probabilistic loss estimation framework is first presented that directly relates hazard to response and hence to losses. A key feature of the loss estimation approach is the determination of losses without need for customary fragility curves. Relationships between intensity measures and engineering demand parameters are used to define the demand model. An empirically calibrated loss model in the form of a power curve with upper and lower cut‐offs is used in conjunction with the demand model to estimate loss ratios. Loss ratios for each of the damage states take into account epistemic uncertainty and an effect on price surge following a major hazardous event. The loss model is calibrated and validated for bridges designed based on the prevailing Caltrans, Japan, and New Zealand standards. The loss model is then transformed to provide a composite seismic hazard–loss relationship that is used to estimate the expected annual loss for structures. The closed‐form four‐step stochastic loss estimation model is applied to the bridges designed for ductility. Results of these ductile designs are compared to a bridge detailed to an emerging damage avoidance design philosophy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Shoal‐water deltas in high‐accommodation settings: Insights from the lacustrine Valimi Formation (Gulf of Corinth,Greece)
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The stratigraphic architecture of shoal‐water deltaic systems developed in low‐accommodation settings is relatively well‐known. In contrast, the features of shoal‐water deltas developed in high‐accommodation settings remain relatively poorly documented, especially when compared with the available data sets for Gilbert‐type deltaic systems developed in the same settings. The lacustrine Valimi Formation (Gulf of Corinth, Greece) provides an opportunity to investigate the facies assemblage and architectural style of shoal‐water deltaic systems developed in high‐accommodation settings. The studied interval accumulated during the Pliocene and Pleistocene and represents part of the early syn‐rift Gulf of Corinth succession. Six facies associations, each described in terms of depositional processes and geometries, have been identified and interpreted to represent a range of proximal to distal deltaic sub‐environments: delta plain, distributary channel, mouth‐bar, delta front, prodelta and open lake. The facies associations and their architectural elements reveal characteristics which are not common in traditionally described shoal‐water deltas. Of note, different facies arrangements are observed in the distributary channels in different sectors of the delta, passing from thick single‐storey channel fills embedded within delta‐plain fines in landward positions, to thin, amalgamated and multi‐storey channels closer to the river mouth. This study proposes a new depositional model for shoal‐water deltas in high‐accommodation settings documenting, for the first time, that shoal‐water delta deposits can form a substantial part of stratigraphic successions that accumulate in these settings. The proposed depositional model provides new criteria for the recognition and interpretation of these deposits; the results of this study have applied significance for reservoir characterization. 相似文献
385.
Stanimir Kostadinov Slavoljub Dragićević Tomislav Stefanović Ivan Novković Ana M. Petrović 《山地科学学报》2017,14(11):2230-2245
One of the most vulnerable parts to natural hazards in Serbia is Kolubara river basin. In the past, during the period from 1929 to 2013, 121 torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin were recorded which show that this territory is extremely vulnerable to the torrential floods. The extreme event which occurred in May 2014 causing the catastrophic material damages and casualties was the latest and historical flood. The analysis of natural conditions in the Kolubara basin uniformly showed that this area is predisposed to a greater number of torrential floods due to its geomorphological, hydrological and land use properties. Torrential floods are closely related to the intensity and spatial distribution of erosive processes in the upper part of the Kolubara basin. The estimation of soil erosion potential is generally achieved by Erosion Potential Model (EPM). For the purposes of determining the degree of torrential properties in various water streams in the Kolubara basin, the calculation of susceptibility to torrential floods was assessed by Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). More than half of the basin area (57.2%) is located within the category of very weak and weak erosion (Zsr = 0.35), but the category of medium erosion is geospatially very common. Such a distribution of medium erosion category provides conditions for generating, i.e. production of sediment which would boost torrential properties of water streams. After the classification of the obtained FFPI values it was determined that 25% of the Kolubara basin is very susceptible to torrents and this data should be seriously taken into consideration. Based on the analyses, the best and most successful manner of defence is prevention which consists of the integrated river basin management system (integrated torrent control system) so that technical works in hydrographic networks of torrents and biological and biotechnical works on the slope of the basin would be the best solution. Permanent control of erosive and torrential processes in the river basin will be not only important for flood control but it can also protect the existing and future water reservoirs and retentions from siltation with erosion sediment which is of great significance to the water management, agriculture, energy sector, and the entire society. 相似文献
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吴盛殷 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1999,(1)
长时间以来被看作是典型致密双源之一的类星体4C39.25,其主要成分显示坦谱,且具有特殊的视超光速结构变化。根据在18厘米波长新的VLBI及MERLIN观测,可以认为该源是一个核-喷流类星体.喷流在毫角秒尺度上旋转了大约90度,并是终向79度的方向角延伸,喷流中包含了几个“节”及在其终点的一个热斑。预期在更高频率的亚毫角秒观测可以证实这样的结构,并对其核本身在18厘米,甚至6厘米波长都几乎是不可见的作出解释. 相似文献
389.
The year 2017 marks the 350th anniversary of the great 6 April 1667 Dubrovnik earthquake that caused extensive damage in a wide area around this old Dalmatian town (today in Croatia). This article presents the effects of the 1667 earthquake and examines the first few weeks following the catastrophe. Macroseismic data are reanalysed, for the first time available data are collected of the damage on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina (the territory which was in the 17th century under the Ottoman reign) and a new map of macroseismic intensities is presented. This map is in good agreement with the macroseismic field modelled using the SAF (Strong Attenuation at Fault Zones) model. We highlight some problems in the collection of macroseismic information, which are mainly a consequence of the complex political situation in the areas affected by the earthquake. The 1667 earthquake heavily impacted Dubrovnik and the Dalmatian coast. This event is thought to be the biggest one in the history of Dalmatia and practically defines seismic hazard in the coastal area of Croatia. For this reason, the main goals in this article are the improvement of the epicenter location and the determination of the moment magnitude. 相似文献
390.
We consider two classical celestial-mechanical systems: the planar restricted circular three-body problem and its simplification, the Hill’s problem. Numerical and analytical analyses of the covering of a Hill’s region by solutions starting with zero velocity at its boundary are presented. We show that, in all considered cases, there always exists an area inside a Hill’s region that is uncovered by the solutions. 相似文献