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A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six observations and six states of the model. The most probable observation and state sequence has been computed using Forward and Viterbi algorithms, respectively. Baum–Welch algorithm has been used for optimizing the model parameters. The model has been validated for two winters (2012–2013 and 2013–2014) by computing root mean square error (RMSE), accuracy measures such as percent correct (PC), critical success index (CSI) and Heidke skill score (HSS). The RMSE of the model has also been calculated using leave-one-out cross-validation method. Snowfall predicted by the model during hazardous snowfall events in different parts of the Himalaya matches well with the observed one. The HSS of the model for all the stations implies that the optimized model has better forecasting skill than random forecast for both the days. The RMSE of the optimized model has also been found smaller than the persistence forecast and standard deviation for both the days. 相似文献
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R C MEHROTRA S K BERA S K BASUMATARY G SRIVASTAVA 《Journal of Earth System Science》2011,120(4):681-701
In order to reconstruct the palaeoclimate, a number of fossil wood pieces were collected and investigated from two new fossil
localities situated in the Dhemaji and Lakhimpur districts of Assam. They belong to the Tipam Group considered to be of Middle–Late
Miocene in age and show affinities with Gluta (Anacardiaceae), Bischofia (Euphorbiaceae), Bauhinia, Cynometra, Copaifera-Detarium-Sindora, Millettia-Pongamia, and Afzelia-Intsia (Fabaceae). The flora also records a new species of Bauhinia named Bauhinia miocenica sp. nov. The assemblage indicates a warm and humid climate in the region during the deposition of the sediments. The occurrence
of some southeast Asian elements in the fossil flora indicates that an exchange of floral elements took place between India
and southeast Asia during the Miocene. 相似文献
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J C JOSHI TANKESHWAR KUMAR SUNITA SRIVASTAVA DIVYA SACHDEVA 《Journal of Earth System Science》2017,126(1):3
Maximum and minimum temperatures are used in avalanche forecasting models for snow avalanche hazard mitigation over Himalaya. The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based avalanche forecasting system for Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum temperatures for Kanzalwan in Pir-Panjal range and Drass in Great Himalayan range with a lead time of two days. The HMMs have been developed using meteorological variables collected from these stations during the past 20 winters from 1992 to 2012. The meteorological variables have been used to define observations and states of the models and to compute model parameters (initial state, state transition and observation probabilities). The model parameters have been used in the Forward and the Viterbi algorithms to generate temperature forecasts. To improve the model forecasts, the model parameters have been optimised using Baum–Welch algorithm. The models have been compared with persistence forecast by root mean square errors (RMSE) analysis using independent data of two winters (2012–13, 2013–14). The HMM for maximum temperature has shown a 4–12% and 17–19% improvement in the forecast over persistence forecast, for day-1 and day-2, respectively. For minimum temperature, it has shown 6–38% and 5–12% improvement for day-1 and day-2, respectively. 相似文献
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Pterospermumocarpon (Type: P. kalviwadiensis), a new morphogenus of fossil fruits showing resemblance with fruits of extant Pterospermum Schreb. (Malvaceae s.l.), is described from the Sindhudurg Formation (Miocene) at the Kalviwadi Village, Sindhudurg District, Maharashtra, India.
Diagnostic feature of the fossil taxon is the dehiscent pentalocular capsule with five distinct sutures and imprints of winged
seed-like structures in the locules. Recent modifications in the systematics of the Malvales, their fossil record, and the
distribution and migration of Pterospermum and other malvalean taxa in the context of the Indian subcontinent are discussed. 相似文献