Impacts of landscape fragmentation on simulated precipitation fields in the Amazonian sub-basin of Ji-Paraná using the Eta model     

Daniel Andres Rodriguez  Sin Chan Chou  Javier Tomasella  Eleonora M. C. Demaria 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(1-2):121-140

Numerical studies on impacts of landscape fragmentation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) on precipitation fields over the Ji-Paraná basin in the Amazon region are carried out using atmospheric Eta model. Experiments consider historical data about LUCC over the basin from 1978 to 2000 and compare simulations under LUCC conditions with simulations under pristine conditions. In agreement with previous observational studies, model results do not show statistically significant impacts on precipitation in the region. Results indicate that variability in precipitation in this region is mainly controlled by large-scale atmospheric characteristics and soil moisture conditions. However, some limitations are identified in the model simulations, mainly associated to the diurnal cycle of precipitation.  相似文献   

(Near-)real-time orbit determination for GNSS radio occultation processing   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Oliver Montenbruck  André Hauschild  Yago Andres  Axel von Engeln  Christian Marquardt 《GPS Solutions》2013,17(2):199-209

The processing of GPS radio occultation measurements for use in numerical weather predictions requires a precise orbit determination (POD) of the host satellite in near-real-time. Making use of data from the GRAS instrument on Metop-A, the performance of different GPS ephemeris products and processing concepts for near-real-time and real-time POD is compared. While previous analyses have focused on the achievable along-track velocity accuracy, this study contributes a systematic comparison of the resulting estimated bending angles. This enables a more rigorous trade-off of different orbit determination methodologies in relation to the end-user needs for atmospheric science products. It is demonstrated that near-real-time GPS orbit and clock products have reached a sufficient quality to determine the Metop-A along-track velocity with an accuracy of better than 0.05 mm/s that was formerly only accessible in post-processing. The resulting bending angles are shown to exhibit standard deviation and bias differences of less than 0.3 % compared with post-processed products up to altitudes of at least 40 km, which is notably better than 1 % accuracy typically assumed for numerical weather predictions in this height regime. Complementary to the analysis of ground-based processing schemes, the potential of autonomous on-board orbit determination is investigated for the first time. Using actual GRAS flight data, it is shown that a 0.5 m 3D rms position accuracy and a 0.2 mm/s along-track velocity accuracy can in fact be obtained in real-time with the currently available GPS broadcast ephemeris quality. Bending angles derived from the simulated real-time processing exhibit a minor performance degradation above tangent point heights of 40 km but negligible differences with respect to ground-based products below this altitude. Onboard orbit determination and, if desired, bending angle computation, can thus enable a further simplification of the ground segment in future radio occultation missions and contribute to reduced product latencies for radio occultation data assimilation in numerical weather predictions.  相似文献   

Forests and water in South America          下载免费PDF全文

Julia Jones  Auro Almeida  Felipe Cisneros  Andres Iroumé  Esteban Jobbágy  Antonio Lara  Walter de Paula Lima  Christian Little  Carlos Llerena  Luis Silveira  Juan Camilo Villegas 《水文研究》2017,31(5):972-980

South America is experiencing rapid change in forest cover, of both native and planted forest. Forest cover loss is primarily attributable to fire, logging, and conversion of native forest to agriculture, pasture, and forest plantations, and types of change vary within and among the many diverse types of forests in South America. Major changes in forest cover and growing policy concerns underscore an urgent need for research on sustainable forest management and water ecosystem services in South America. Differences in land ownership and management objectives create trade‐offs between wood production and water ecosystem services from forests. Work is needed to quantify how forest change and management affect ecosystem services, such as wood production versus water provision. Current scientific understanding of forest management effects on water ecosystem services in South America has important limitations, including a scarcity of long‐term records and few long‐term integrated watershed studies. Industry, government, universities, and local communities should collaborate on integrated applied studies of forests and water. Data archiving and publically available data are required. The creation of national networks and a multi‐country South America network to identify and implement common water research protocols, share results, and explore their implications would promote common and well‐supported policies. Hydrologists working in South America are well placed to tackle the challenges and opportunities for collaborative research that will maintain the intrinsic values and water ecosystem services provided by South America's forests.  相似文献   

Sedimentation rates on embanked floodplains determined through quartz optical dating     

Jakob Wallinga  Noortje Hobo  Alastair C. Cunningham  Alice J. Versendaal  Bart Makaske  Hans Middelkoop 《Quaternary Geochronology》2010,5(2-3):170-175

We investigate the use of quartz optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating for determining fluvial overbank sedimentation rates over decades to centuries. For the study we took 11 samples from three cores from an embanked floodplain along the River Waal (Rhine) near Neerijnen (The Netherlands). We propose a measurement protocol for young fluvial quartz based on the single-aliquot regenerative dose procedure. Parameters for the protocol are chosen to isolate the fast OSL component, eliminate an ultrafast OSL component and avoid thermal transfer. The protocol shows excellent dose recovery and recycling ratios. For each sample, a Gaussian is fitted to the lower part of the equivalent dose distribution to obtain an estimate of the burial dose. We discuss the validity of the OSL ages using internal and external controls, and conclude that there is no evidence for large systematic offsets in the OSL ages. OSL based sedimentation rates are between ～3 and 8 mm/a, in line with previous estimates.  相似文献   

Wavelet-multivariate relevance vector machine hybrid model for forecasting daily evapotranspiration     

Roula Bachour  Inga Maslova  Andres M. Ticlavilca  Wynn R. Walker  Mac McKee 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(1):103-117

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main components of the hydrological cycle. It is a complex process driven mainly by weather parameters, and as such, is characterized by high non-linearity and non-stationarity. This paper introduces a methodology combining wavelet multiresolution analysis with a machine learning algorithm, the multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM), in order to predict 16 days of future daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo). This methodology lays the ground for forecasting the spatial distribution of ET using Landsat satellite imagery, hence the choice of 16 days, which corresponds with the Landsat overpass cycle. An accurate prediction of daily ETo is needed to improve the management of irrigation schedules as well as the operations of water supply facilities like canals and reservoirs. In this paper, various wavelet decompositions were performed and combined with MVRVM to develop hybrid models to predict ETo over a 16-days period. These models were compared to a MVRVM model, and models accuracy and robustness were evaluated. The addition of 10 days of forecasted air temperature as additional inputs to the forecasting models was also investigated. The results of the wavelet-MVRVM hybrid modeling methodology showed that a reliable forecast of ETo up to 16 days ahead is possible.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of eroded and deposited sediment volumes of the embanked River Waal,the Netherlands,for the period ad 1631–present          下载免费PDF全文

Noortje Hobo  Bart Makaske  Jakob Wallinga  Hans Middelkoop 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(10):1301-1318

In the last few centuries humans have modified rivers, and rivers have responded with noticeable changes in sedimentary dynamics. The objective of this study is to assess these responses of the sedimentary dynamics. Therefore, we calculated a sediment budget for eroded and deposited sediment volumes in a ~12‐km long floodplain section of the largest semi‐natural embanked but still dynamic lower Rhine distributary, for ~50‐years time slices between ad 1631 and present. This is the period during which embanked floodplains were formed by downstream migration of meander bends between confining dykes. Our sediment budget involves a detailed reconstruction of vertical and lateral accretion rates and erosion rates of floodplain sediment. To do so, we developed a series of historical geomorphological maps, and lithogenetic cross‐sections. Based on the maps and cross‐sections, we divided the floodplain into building blocks representing channel bed and overbank sediment bodies. Chronostratigraphy within the blocks was estimated by interpretation of heavy metal profiles and from optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating results. Sediment budgets were hence calculated as a change of volume of each building block between time steps. The amount of lateral accretion initially increased, as a result of island and sand bar formation following embankment. From the eighteenth century onwards, there was a decrease of lateral processes in time, which is a result of straightening of the river by human activities, and a reduction of water and sediment supply due to the construction of a new upstream bifurcation. With straightening of the river, the floodplain area grew. Artificial fixation of the channel banks after ad 1872 prevented lateral activity. From then on, overbank deposition became the main process, leading to a continuous increase of floodplain elevation, and inherent decrease of flooding frequency and sediment accumulation rate. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Quantification and characterization of the dynamics of spring and stream water systems in the Berchtesgaden Alps with a long-term stable isotope dataset     

Jakob Garvelmann  Michael Warscher  Gabriele Leonhardt  Helmut Franz  Annette Lotz  Harald Kunstmann 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(22):766

The understanding of alpine groundwater dynamics and the interactions with surface stream water is crucial for water resources research and management in mountain regions. In order to characterize local spring and stream water systems, samples at 8 springs, 5 stream gauges and bulk samples of precipitation at 4 sites were regularly collected between January 2012 and January 2016 in the Berchtesgaden Alps for stable water isotope analysis. The sampled hydro-systems are characterized by very different dynamics of the stable isotope signatures. To quantify those differences, we analyzed the stable isotope time series and calculated mean transit times (MTT) and young water fractions (YWF) of the sampled systems. Based on the data analysis, two groups of spring systems could be identified: one group with relatively short MTT (and high YWF) and another group with long MTT (and low YWF). The MTT and the YWF of the sampled streams were intermediate, respectively. The reaction of the sampled spring and stream systems to precipitation input was studied by lag time analysis. The average lag times revealed the influence of snow and ice melt for the hydrology in the study region. It was not possible to determine the recharge elevation of the spring and stream systems due to a lack of altitude effect in the precipitation data. For two catchments, the influence of the spring water stable isotopic composition on the streamflow was shown, highlighting the importance of the spring water for the river network in the study area.  相似文献   

A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Matthias Jakob  Hamish Weatherly   《Geomorphology》2003,54(3-4):137-156

Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m³/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is −1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTL_I) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITL_I) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.  相似文献   

Das «Rheodrom», eine neue Fliesswasser-Versuchanlage     

Lutz Ibscher dipl. phil  Andres Keller dipl. Natw. 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1975,37(1):187-192

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Southern Ocean deglacial record supports global Younger Dryas     

Miriam S Andres  Stefano M Bernasconi  Ursula Röhl 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2003,216(4):515-524

In Northern Hemisphere deglaciation records, the transition from the last glacial to the Holocene indicates a rapid return to near-glacial conditions during the Younger Dryas, whereas their Southern Hemisphere ice core counterparts record two separate cooling events: the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the Oceanic Cold Reversal. Spatial distribution and relative timing of these events in both hemispheres are central for our understanding of causes and mechanisms of abrupt climate change. To date, no marine record from the southern mid-latitudes conclusively demonstrates that the Younger Dryas was a significant event in the Southern Ocean. Here, we present high-resolution oxygen isotope and iron content records of a radiocarbon-dated sedimentary sequence from the Great Australian Bight, which constrains oceanic and atmospheric changes during the last deglaciation. Oxygen isotopes from planktonic foraminifera indicate two rapid cold reversals (between 13.1 and 11.1 kyr BP) separated by a brief warming. The sedimentary iron content, interpreted as a proxy for wind strength, indicates a simultaneous change in atmospheric circulation pattern. Both records demonstrate the existence of cooling events in the Southern Hemisphere, which are synchronous with the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas cold reversal (between 12.9 and 11.5 kyr BP). Such evidence for the spatial distribution and timing of abrupt climatic fluctuations is essential data for groundtruthing results derived from global climate models.  相似文献