Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Karen O'Brien  Linda Sygna  Jan Erik Haugen 《Climatic change》2004,64(1-2):193-225

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.  相似文献   

Gravity reduction with three-dimensional atmospheric pressure data for precise ground gravity measurements     

Juergen Neumeyer  Jan Hagedoorn  Jens Leitloff  Torsten Schmidt 《Journal of Geodynamics》2004,38(3-5):437

The redistribution of air masses induces gravity variations (atmospheric pressure effect) up to about 20 μgal. These variations are disturbing signals in gravity records and they must be removed very carefully for detecting weak gravity signals. In the past, different methods have been developed for modelling of the atmospheric pressure effect. These methods use local or two-dimensional (2D) surface atmospheric pressure data and a standard height-dependent air density distribution. The atmospheric pressure effect is consisting of the elastic deformation and attraction term. The deformation term can be well modelled with 2D surface atmospheric pressure data, for instance with the Green's function method. For modelling of the attraction term, three-dimensional (3D) data are required. Results with 2D data are insufficient.From European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 3D atmospheric pressure data are now available. The ECMWF data used here are characterised by a spacing of Δ and Δλ = 0.5°, 60 pressure levels up to a height of 60 km and an interval of 6 h. These data are used for modelling of the atmospheric attraction term. Two attraction models have been developed based on the point mass attraction of air segments and the gravity potential of the air masses. The modelling shows a surface pressure-independent part of gravity variations induced by mass redistribution of the atmosphere in the order of some μgal. This part can only be determined by using 3D atmospheric pressure data. It has been calculated for the Vienna Superconducting Gravimeter site.From this follows that the gravity reduction can be improved by applying the 3D atmospheric attraction model for analysing long-periodic tidal waves including the polar tide. The same improvement is expected for reduction of long-term absolute gravity measurements or comparison of gravity measurements at different seasonal times. By using 3D atmospheric pressure data, the gravity correction can be improved up to some μgal.  相似文献   

Regional moment tensor uncertainty due to mismodeling of the crust     

Jan ílený 《Tectonophysics》2004,383(3-4):133-147

The retrieval of earthquake moment tensor (MT) requires the response of the medium, in which seismic waves travel from the hypocenter to the stations, to be known. In inverting long-period (LP) seismic data (teleseismic and LP regional records), a gross earth model is sufficient; with decreasing periods, a more detailed model is needed. This is the case when waveforms of weak earthquakes at regional distances are to be inverted. Regional moment tensors (RMTs) of mostly Mediterranean earthquakes are determined on a routine basis by the Swiss Seismological Survey (SED) by using averaged models of the earth's crust. By inverting broad-band records of the M_w=4.8 earthquake near Udine, N Italy, on Feb. 14, 2002, we tested the sensitivity of the MT solution with respect to possible errors in the earth model used and in the location of the hypocenter depth. We perturbed the P and S velocities and the thickness in the 1-D earth model in the range from 3% to 30% of the parameter values and constructed estimates of confidence regions of the MT and error bars of the source time function (STF) and scalar moment in three frequency bands. Similarly, these error characteristics were determined assuming a mislocation in the hypocenter depth. We found that, in the band of periods from 25 to 50 s, the mechanism is resolved well (at the confidence level 95% at least) up to an earth model uncertainty of 30%, in the passband 10–25 s up to about 10%, but it is undetermined completely at periods of 5–10 s. An error in hypocenter depth of as much as double the value reported by the location procedure does not destroy the resolution of the mechanism at periods above 10 s. In the RMT catalog of the SED, earthquakes of M_w greater than about 3.5 are processed at periods above 30 s; thus, the solutions for these events are robust with respect to a possible uncertainty in the earth model used. Mechanisms of weaker earthquakes, retrieved from short periods, should be interpreted with caution.  相似文献   

A German catalogue of archaeomagnetic data     

Elisabeth Schnepp  Rudolf Pucher  Jan Reinders  Ulrich Hambach  Heinrich Soffel  Ian Hedley 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(1):64-78

  相似文献   

The International Laser Ranging Service and its support for IGGOS     

Michael Pearlman  Carey Noll  Peter Dunn  Julie Horvath  Van Husson  Paul Stevens  Mark Torrence  Hoai Vo  Scott Wetzel 《Journal of Geodynamics》2005,40(4-5):470

The International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) was established in September 1998 as a service within the IAG to support programs in geodetic, geophysical, and lunar research activities and to provide data products to the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) in support of its prime objectives. Now in operation for 5 years, the ILRS develops: (1) the standards and specifications necessary for product consistency and (2) the priorities and tracking strategies required to maximize network efficiency. The service collects, merges, analyzes, archives and distributes satellite and lunar laser ranging data to satisfy a variety of scientific, engineering, and operational needs and encourages the application of new technologies to enhance the quality, quantity, and cost effectiveness of its data products. The ILRS works with: (1) the global network to improve station performance; (2) new satellite missions in the design and building of retroreflector targets to maximize data quality and quantity and (3) science programs to optimize scientific data yield. The ILRS Central Bureau maintains a comprehensive web site as the primary vehicle for the distribution of information within the ILRS community. The site, which can be accessed at: http://ilrs.gsfc.nasa.gov is also available at mirrored sites at the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) in Tokyo and the European Data Center (EDC) in Munich.During the last 2 years, the ILRS has addressed very important challenges: (1) data from the field stations are now submitted hourly and made available immediately through the data centers for access by the user community; (2) tracking on low satellites has been significantly improved through the sub-daily issue of predictions, drag functions, and the real-time exchange of time biases; (3) analysis products are now submitted in SINEX format for compatibility with the other space geodesy techniques; (4) the Analysis Working Group is heavily engaged in Pilot Projects as it works toward an ILRS “standard” global solution and (5) SLR has significantly increased its participation in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) activity, which is important to the success of IGGOS.  相似文献   

Kinetic energy–rainfall intensity relationship for Central Cebu, Philippines for soil erosion studies     

Ricardo L. Fornis  Hans R. Vermeulen  Jan D. Nieuwenhuis 《Journal of Hydrology》2005,300(1-4):20-32

In the study of soil erosion, specifically on detachment of soil particles by raindrop impact, kinetic energy is a commonly suggested indicator of the raindrop's ability to detach soil particles from the soil mass. Since direct measurement of kinetic energy requires sophisticated and costly instruments, the alternative approach is to estimate it from rainfall intensity. The present study aims at establishing a relationship between rainfall intensity and kinetic energy for rainfalls in Central Cebu, Philippines as a preface of a wider regional investigation.

Drop size distributions of rainfalls were measured using the disdrometer RD-80. There are two forms of kinetic energy considered here. One is kinetic energy per unit area per unit time (KE_R, J m⁻² h⁻¹) and the other is kinetic energy per unit area per unit depth (KE, J m⁻² mm⁻¹). Relationships between kinetic energy per unit area per unit time (KE_R) and rainfall intensity (I) were obtained using linear and power relations. The exponential model and the logarithmic model were fitted to the KE–I data to obtain corresponding relationships between kinetic energy per unit area per unit depth of rainfall (KE) and rainfall intensity (I). The equation obtained from the exponential model produced smaller standard error of estimates than the logarithmic model.  相似文献   

Evaluation of current statistical approaches for predictive geomorphological mapping   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

Luoto Miska  Hjort Jan 《Geomorphology》2005,67(3-4):299-315

Predictive models are increasingly used in geomorphology, but systematic evaluations of novel statistical techniques are still limited. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive models (GAM), classification tree analysis (CTA), neural networks (ANN) and multiple adaptive regression splines (MARS) in predictive geomorphological modelling. Five different distribution models both for non-sorted and sorted patterned ground were constructed on the basis of four terrain parameters and four soil variables. To evaluate the models, the original data set of 9997 squares of 1 ha in size was randomly divided into model training (70%, n=6998) and model evaluation sets (30%, n=2999).In general, active sorted patterned ground is clearly defined in upper fell areas with high slope angle and till soils. Active non-sorted patterned ground is more common in valleys with higher soil moisture and fine-scale concave topography. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Kappa value. The relatively high discrimination capacity of all models, AUC=0.85–0.88 and Kappa=0.49–0.56, implies that the model's predictions provide an acceptable index of sorted and non-sorted patterned ground occurrence. The best performance for model calibration data for both data sets was achieved by the CTA. However, when the predictive mapping ability was explored through the evaluation data set, the model accuracies of CTA decreased clearly compared to the other modelling techniques. For model evaluation data MARS performed marginally best.Our results show that the digital elevation model and soil data can be used to predict relatively robustly the activity of patterned ground in fine scale in a subarctic landscape. This indicates that predictive geomorphological modelling has the advantage of providing relevant and useful information on earth surface processes over extensive areas, such data being unavailable through more conventional survey methods.  相似文献   

Time-domain approach to linearized rotational response of a three-dimensional viscoelastic earth model induced by glacial-isostatic adjustment: I. Inertia-tensor perturbations     

Zden&#;k Martinec  Jan Hagedoorn 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,163(2):443-462

  相似文献   

Crustal structure of the Lofoten–Vesterålen continental margin, off Norway     

Filippos Tsikalas  Olav Eldholm  Jan Inge Faleide   《Tectonophysics》2005,404(3-4):151-174

By compiling wide-angle seismic velocity profiles along the 400-km-long Lofoten–Vesterålen continental margin off Norway, and integrating them with an extensive seismic reflection data set and crustal-scale two-dimensional gravity modelling, we outline the crustal margin structure. The structure is illustrated by across-margin regional transects and by contour maps of depth to Moho, thickness of the crystalline crust, and thickness of the 7+ km/s lower crustal body. The data reveal a normal thickness oceanic crust seaward of anomaly 23 and an increase in thickness towards the continent–ocean boundary associated with breakup magmatism. The southern boundary of the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin, the Bivrost Fracture Zone and its landward prolongation, appears as a major across-margin magmatic and structural crustal feature that governed the evolution of the margin. In particular, a steeply dipping and relatively narrow, 10–40-km-wide, Moho-gradient zone exists within a continent–ocean transition, which decreases in width northward along the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin. To the south, the zone continues along the Vøring margin, however it is offset 70–80 km to the northwest along the Bivrost Fracture Zone/Lineament. Here, the Moho-gradient zone corresponds to a distinct, 25-km-wide, zone of rapid landward increase in crustal thickness that defines the transition between the Lofoten platform and the Vøring Basin. The continental crust on the Lofoten–Vesterålen margin reaches a thickness of 26 km and appears to have experienced only moderate extension, contrasting with the greatly extended crust in the Vøring Basin farther south. There are also distinct differences between the Lofoten and Vesterålen margin segments as revealed by changes in structural style and crustal thickness as well as in the extent of elongate potential-field anomalies. These changes may be related to transfer zones. Gravity modelling shows that the prominent belt of shelf-edge gravity anomalies results from a shallow basement structural relief, while the elongate Lofoten Islands belt requires increased lower crustal densities along the entire area of crustal thinning beneath the islands. Furthermore, gravity modelling offers a robust diagnostic tool for the existence of the lower crustal body. From modelling results and previous studies on- and off-shore mid-Norway, we postulate that the development of a core complex in the middle to lower crust in the Lofoten Islands region, which has been exhumed along detachments during large-scale extension, brought high-grade, lower crustal rocks, possibly including accreted decompressional melts, to shallower levels.  相似文献   

Multi‐year water balance assessment of a newly constructed wetland,Fort McMurray,Alberta          下载免费PDF全文

Erin M. Nicholls  Sean K. Carey  Elyn R. Humphreys  M. Graham Clark  Gordon B. Drewitt 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2739-2753

Oil sands mining in Alberta transforms the boreal landscape of forests and wetlands into open pits, tailings ponds and overburden piles. Whereas reclamation efforts have primarily focused on upland forests, rebuilding wetland systems has recently become a motivation for research. Wetland creation and sustainability in this region is complicated by the sub‐humid climate and salinity of underlying mining material. In 2012, Syncrude Canada Ltd. completed the construction of the Sandhill Fen Watershed (SFW), a 52‐ha upland‐wetland system to evaluate wetland reclamation strategies on soft tailings. SFW includes an active pumping system, upland hummocks, a fen wetland and underdrains. To evaluate the influence of management practices on the hydrology of the system, this study reports the water balance from January 2013 to December 2014, the first 2 years after commissioning. A semi‐distributed approach was taken to examine the fluxes and stores of water in uplands and lowlands. Natural and artificial inputs and outputs were measured using a series of precipitation gauges and pumps, and evapotranspiration was quantified using three eddy covariance towers. A series of near surface wells recorded water table position. Both 2013 and 2014 were normal rainfall years, with 2013 having more and 2014 less snow than normal. In 2013, inflow/outflow from pumping was the predominant hydrological fluxes, resulting in considerable variability in water table position and storage changes throughout the summer. In 2014, the artificial addition of water was negligible, yet the water table remained near the surface in lowland locations, suggesting that wetland conditions could be maintained under current conditions. Evapotranspiration rates between uplands and lowlands were similar between years and sites, ranging from 2.2 ± 1.8 to 2.5 ± 1.2 mm/day and were largely controlled by climate. These rates were less than nearby older upland systems, suggesting that water balance partitioning will change as vegetation develops. Comparison between years and with natural systems provides insight on how management practices influence hydrologic dynamics and the overall water balance of the SFW. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献