Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling     

Roberta-Serena Blasone  Jasper A. Vrugt  Henrik Madsen  Dan Rosbjerg  Bruce A. Robinson  George A. Zyvoloski 《Advances in water resources》2008

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.  相似文献   

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”     

Jasper A. Vrugt  Cajo J. F. ter Braak  Hoshin V. Gupta  Bruce A. Robinson 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(7):1061-1062

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.  相似文献   

Experimental constraints on storage conditions in the chemically zoned phonolitic magma chamber of the Laacher See volcano     

Jasper Berndt  François Holtz  Jürgen Koepke 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2001,140(4):469-486

Phase relations of three samples of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) have been determined experimentally as a function of temperature (760 to 880 °C), pressure (200, 300 and 400 MPa), water content of the melt and oxygen fugacity (ƒO₂). The crystallization experiments were carried out at ƒO₂=NNO buffer and at NNO=+ 2.3 log units. The melt water contents varied between 6 and more than 8 wt% H₂O, corresponding to water-undersaturated and water saturated conditions respectively. The synthetic products are compared to the natural phases to constrain pre-eruptive conditions in the Laacher See magma chamber. The major phases occurring in the LST have been reproduced. The stability of hauyne is favoured at high ƒO₂ (≈NNO + 2.3). The CaO contents in melt and plagioclase synthesized under water-saturated conditions are significantly higher than in the natural phases, implying that most of the differentiation of the phonolites took place under water-undersaturated conditions. However, this does not exclude the presence of a S-, Cl- and CO₂-rich fluid phase in the upper parts of the magma chamber. The phase relationships and the TiO₂ contents of melts show that the temperature was lower than 760 °C in the upper part of the magma column (probably down to 720 °C in the most differentiated levels) and that temperatures above 840–860 °C prevailed in the lower part. The variation of the X _Mg of ferromagnesian minerals observed in both natural and experimental phases reflects the strong variations in ƒO₂ in the lower magma chamber just prior to eruption (probably variation of about 2 log units). The most probable explanation for these ƒO₂ variations is the injection of an oxidized alkali-rich magma, containing Mg-rich phenocrysts, at the base of a chemically zoned and more reduced magma column prior to eruption. Although the amount of injected magma may not have been very important, it was sufficient to change the ƒO₂ conditions locally, explaining the heterogeneous X _Mg of ferromagnesian minerals and the formation of hauyne at the base of the chamber. Received: 30 May 2000 / Accepted: 12 August 2000  相似文献   

Fractionation of the noble metals by physical processes     

Chris Ballhaus  Conny Bockrath  Cora Wohlgemuth-Ueberwasser  Vera Laurenz  Jasper Berndt 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2006,152(6):667-684

During partial melting in the earth’s mantle, the noble metals become fractionated. Os, Ir, Ru, and Rh tend to remain in the mantle residue whereas Pt, Pd, and Re behave mildly incompatible and are sequestered to the silicate melt. There is consensus that sulfide plays a role in the fractionation process; the major noble metal repository in the mantle is sulfide, and most primitive mantle melts are sulfide-saturated when they leave their mantle sources. However, with sulfide–silicate partitioning, the fractionation cannot be modeled properly. All sulfide–silicate partition coefficients are so extremely high that a silicate melt segregating from a mantle source with residual sulfide should be largely platinum-group elements free. We offer a physical alternative to sulfide–silicate chemical partitioning and provide a mechanism of generating a noble metal-rich melt from a sulfide-saturated source: Because sulfide is at least partially molten at asthenospheric temperature, it will behave physically incompatible during melt segregation, and a silicate melt segregating from a mantle residue will entrain molten residual sulfide in suspension and incorporate it in the basaltic pool melt. The noble metal abundances of a basalt then become independent of sulfide–silicate chemical partitioning. They reflect the noble metal abundances in the drained sulfide fraction as well as the total amount of sulfide entrained. Contrary to convention, we suggest that a fertile, sulfide-rich mantle source has more potential to generate a noble metal-enriched basaltic melt than a refractory mantle source depleted by previous partial melting events.  相似文献   

Searching for large-scale structure in deep radio surveys     

Audra Baleisis  Ofer Lahav  rew J. Loan  & Jasper V. Wall 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(2):545-558

We calculate the expected amplitude of the dipole and higher spherical harmonics in the angular distribution of radio galaxies. The median redshift of radio sources in existing catalogues is z  ∼ 1, which allows us to study large-scale structure on scales between those accessible to present optical and infrared surveys, and that of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The dipole is a result of two effects which turn out to be of comparable magnitude: (i) our motion with respect to the CMB, and (ii) large-scale structure, parametrized here by a family of cold dark matter power-spectra. We make specific predictions for the Green Bank 1987 (87GB) and Parkes–MIT–NRAO (PMN) catalogues, which in our combined catalogue include ∼ 40 000 sources brighter than 50 mJy at 4.85 GHz, over about 70 per cent of the sky. For these relatively sparse catalogues both the motion and large-scale structure dipole effects are expected to be smaller than the Poisson shot noise. However, we detect dipole and higher harmonics in the combined 87GB–PMN_raw catalogue which are far larger than expected. We attribute this to a 2 per cent flux mismatch between the two catalogues. Ad hoc corrections made in an effort to match the catalogues may suggest a marginal detection of a dipole. To detect a dipole and higher harmonics unambiguously, a catalogue with full sky coverage and ∼ 10⁶ sources is required. We also investigate the existence and extent of the supergalactic plane in the above catalogues. In a strip of ± 10° of the standard supergalactic equator, we find a 3 σ detection in PMN_raw, but only 1 σ in 87 GB_raw. We briefly discuss the implications of ongoing surveys such as FIRST and NVSS and follow-up redshift surveys.  相似文献   

Assessment of temporal changes in coastal sand dune environments using the log-hyperbolic grain-size method     

Jasper Knight  Julian D. Orford†  Peter Wilson  Sharon M. Braley 《Sedimentology》2002,49(6):1229-1252

Abstract Three cores (<9 m long) recovered from late Holocene coastal sand dunes in Northumberland, north‐eastern England, were examined stratigraphically and dated by the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) method to the time period between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; ≈ 900–1200 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ≈ 1550–1800 AD). Grain‐size variability and CaCO₃ content were determined at 10‐mm intervals throughout parts of the cores. The sahara computer program was used to plot the log‐hyperbolic distribution (LHD) of grain‐size spectra from different stratigraphic levels and estimate the LHD's statistical components. Core samples plot variously in the depositional and erosional domains of the hyperbolic chi (χ) vs. xi (ξ) shape triangle, which describes components of sediment sorting. Depositional and erosional phases, discriminated within the LHD's shape triangle, cannot readily be resolved from core stratigraphies or correlated between cores. IRSL dates from single cores show a clustering about the period 1430–1540. Between the dated horizons, dunes accreted at ≈ 0·02–0·05 m year^?1, enabling the timing of excursions in χ and ξ to be estimated. These excursions, which can be resolved to the subannual level between the dated horizons, may be related to deposition by episodic storms or storm surges in the North Sea region, which is supported by historical documentary evidence. This innovative use of the LHD method and its derived statistics can be used successfully to describe temporal trends in coastal depositional environments and identify likely storm events in dune sediment records.  相似文献   

Groundwater chemistry of Al under Dutch sandy soils: Effects of land use and depth     

Ellen P.M.J. Fest  Erwin J.M. Temminghoff  Jasper Griffioen  Bas Van Der Grift  Willem H. Van Riemsdijk 《Applied Geochemistry》2007

Aluminium has received great attention in the second half of the 20th century, mainly in the context of the acid rain problem mostly in forest soils. In this research the effect of land use and depth of the groundwater on Al, pH and DOC concentration in groundwater under Dutch sandy soils has been studied. Both pH and DOC concentration play a major role in the speciation of Al in solution. Furthermore, the equilibrium with mineral phases like gibbsite, amorphous Al(OH)₃ and imogolite, has been considered. Agricultural and natural land use were expected to have different effects on the pH and DOC concentration, which in turn could influence the total Al concentration and the speciation of Al in groundwater at different depths (phreatic, shallow and deep). An extensive dataset (n = 2181) from the national and some provincial monitoring networks on soil and groundwater quality was used. Land use type and groundwater depth did influence the pH, and Al and DOC concentrations in groundwater samples. The Al concentration ranged from <0.4 μmol L⁻¹ at pH > 7 to 1941 μmol L⁻¹ at pH < 4; highest Al concentrations were found for natural-phreatic groundwater. The DOC concentration decreased and the median pH increased with depth of the groundwater. Natural-phreatic groundwater showed lower pH than the agricultural-phreatic groundwater. Highest DOC concentrations were found for the agricultural-phreatic groundwater, induced by the application of organic fertilizers. Besides inorganic complexation, the NICA-Donnan model was used to calculate Al³⁺ concentrations for complexation with DOC. Below pH 4.5 groundwater samples were mainly in disequilibrium with a mineral phase. This disequilibrium is considered to be the result of kinetic constraints or equilibrium with organic matter. Log K values were derived by linear regression and were close to theoretical values for Al(OH)₃ minerals (e.g. gibbsite or amorphous Al(OH)₃), except for natural-phreatic groundwater for which lower log K values were found. Complexation of Al with DOC is shown to be an important factor for the Al concentrations, especially at high DOC concentrations as was found for agricultural-phreatic groundwater.  相似文献   

Rivers and floodplains: forms,processes, and sedimentary record J.S. BRIDGE. Blackwell Science,Oxford 2003 (491pp) ?34.99 ISBN 0 632 06489 7 (paperback)     

Jasper Knight 《第四纪科学杂志》2004,19(6):618-618

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Microstructurally controlled trace element (Zr,U–Pb) concentrations in metamorphic rutile: An example from the amphibolites of the Bergen Arcs     

Jo Moore  Andreas Beinlich  Jennifer K. Porter  Cristina Talavera  Jasper Berndt  Sandra Piazolo  Håkon Austrheim  Andrew Putnis 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(1):103-127

As a common constituent of metamorphic assemblages, rutile provides constraints on the timing and conditions of rock transformation at high resolution. However, very little is known about the links between trace element mobility and rutile microstructures that result from synmetamorphic deformation. To address this issue, here we combine in situ LA-ICP-MS and sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe trace element data with electron back-scatter diffraction microstructural analyses to investigate the links between rutile lattice distortions and Zr and U–Pb systematics. Furthermore, we apply this integrated approach to constrain further the temperature and timing of amphibolite facies metamorphism and deformation in the Bergen Arcs of southwestern Norway. In outcrop, the formation of porphyroblastic rutile in dynamically hydrated leucocratic domains of otherwise rutile-poor statically hydrated amphibolite provides key contextual information on both the ambient conditions of hydration and deformation and the composition of the reactive fluid. Rutile in amphibolite recorded ambient metamorphic temperatures of ~590–730°C during static hydration of the granulitic precursor. By contrast, rutile from leucocratic domains in the directly adjacent shear zone indicates that deformation was accompanied by a localized increase in temperature. These higher temperatures are recorded in strain-free rutile (~600–860°C) and by Zr concentration measurements on low-angle boundaries and shear bands (620–820°C). In addition, we also observe slight depletions of Zr and U along rutile low-angle boundaries relative to strain-free areas in deformed grains from the shear zone. This indicates that crystal–plastic deformation facilitated the compositional re-equilibration of rutile upon cooling to slightly below the peak temperature of deformation. Cessation of deformation at mid-crustal conditions near ~600°C is recorded by late stage growth of small (<150 µm) rutile in the high-strain zones. U–Pb age data obtained from the strain-free and distorted rutile grains cluster in distinct populations of 437.4 ± 2.7 Ma and c. 405–410 Ma, respectively. These different ages are interpreted to reflect the difference in closure for thermally induced Pb diffusion between undeformed and deformed rutile during post-deformation exhumation and cooling. Thus, our results provide a reconstruction of the thermochronological history of the amphibolite facies rocks of the Lindås Nappe and highlight the importance of integration of microstructural data during application of thermometers and geochronometers.  相似文献   

Propagating uncertainty from catchment experiments to estimates of streamflow reduction by invasive alien plants in southwestern South Africa     

Glenn R. Moncrieff  Jasper A. Slingsby  David C. Le Maitre 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14161

Long-term catchment experiments from South Africa have demonstrated that afforestation of grasslands and shrublands significantly reduces surface-water runoff. These results have guided the country's forestry policy and the implementation of a national Invasive Alien Plant (IAP) control programme for the past few decades. Unfortunately, woody IAP densities continue to increase, compounding existing threats to water security from population growth and climatic change. Decision makers need defensible estimates of the impacts of afforestation or invasions on runoff to weigh up alternative land use options, or guide investment of limited resources into ecosystem restoration through IAP clearing versus engineering-based water-augmentation schemes. Existing attempts to extrapolate the impacts observed in catchment afforestation experiments to broad-scale IAP impacts give no indication of uncertainty. Globally, the uncertainty inherent in the results from paired-catchment experiments is seldom propagated into subsequent analyses making use of these data. We present a fully reproducible Bayesian model that propagates uncertainty from input data to final estimates of changes in streamflow when extrapolating from catchment experiments to broader landscapes. We apply our model to South Africa's catchment experiment data, estimating streamflow losses to plantations and analogous plant invasions in the catchments of southwestern South Africa, including uncertainty. We estimate that regional streamflow is reduced by 304 million m³ or 4.14% annually as a result of IAPs, with an upper estimate of 408 million m³ (5.54%) and a lower estimate of 267 million m³ (3.63%). Our model quantifies uncertainty associated with all parameters and their contribution to overall uncertainty, helping guide future research needs. Acknowledging and quantifying inherent uncertainty enables more defensible decisions regarding water resource management.  相似文献