Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts     

Luis Ricardo Lage Rodrigues  Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes  Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):597-616

Different combination methods based on multiple linear regression are explored to identify the conditions that lead to an improvement of seasonal forecast quality when individual operational dynamical systems and a statistical–empirical system are combined. A calibration of the post-processed output is included. The combination methods have been used to merge the ECMWF System 4, the NCEP CFSv2, the Météo-France System 3, and a simple statistical model based on SST lagged regression. The forecast quality was assessed from a deterministic and probabilistic point of view. SSTs averaged over three different tropical regions have been considered: the Niño3.4, the Subtropical Northern Atlantic and Western Tropical Indian SST indices. The forecast quality of these combinations is compared to the forecast quality of a simple multi-model (SMM) where all single models are equally weighted. The results show a large range of behaviours depending on the start date, target month and the index considered. Outperforming the SMM predictions is a difficult task for linear combination methods with the samples currently available in an operational context. The difficulty in the robust estimation of the weights due to the small samples available is one of the reasons that limit the potential benefit of the combination methods that assign unequal weights. However, these combination methods showed the capability to improve the forecast reliability and accuracy in a large proportion of cases. For example, the Forecast Assimilation method proved to be competitive against the SMM while the other combination methods outperformed the SMM when only a small number of forecast systems have skill. Therefore, the weighting does not outperform the SMM when the SMM is very skilful, but it reduces the risk of low skill situations that are found when several single forecast systems have a low skill.  相似文献   

New insights on the trophic ecology of bathyal communities from the methane seep area off Concepción,Chile (~36° S)     

Germán Zapata‐Hernández  Javier Sellanes  Andrew R. Thurber  Lisa A. Levin  Frédéric Chazalon  Peter Linke 《Marine Ecology》2014,35(1):1-21

Studies of the trophic structure in methane‐seep habitats provide insight into the ecological function of deep‐sea ecosystems. Methane seep biota on the Chilean margin likely represent a novel biogeographic province; however, little is known about the ecology of the seep fauna and particularly their trophic support. The present study, using natural abundance stable isotopes, reveals a complex trophic structure among heterotrophic consumers, with four trophic levels supported by a diversity of food sources at a methane seep area off Concepción, Chile (~36° S). Although methanotrophy, thiotrophy and phototrophy are all identified as carbon fixation mechanisms fueling the food web within this area, most of the analysed species (87.5%) incorporate carbon derived from photosynthesis and a smaller number (12%) use carbon derived from chemosynthesis. Methane‐derived carbon (MDC) incorporation was documented in 22 taxa, including sipunculids, gastropods, polychaetes and echinoderms. In addition, wide trophic niches were detected in suspension‐feeding and deposit‐feeding taxa, possibly associated with the use of organic matter in different stages of degradation (e.g. from fresh to refractory). Estimates of Bayesian standard ellipses area (SEA_B) reveal different isotopic niche breadth in the predator fishes, the Patagonian toothfish Dissostichus eleginoides and the combtooth dogfish Centroscyllium nigrum, suggesting generalist versus specialist feeding behaviors, respectively. Top predators in the ecosystem were the Patagonian toothfish D. eleginoides and the dusky cat shark, Bythaelurus canescens. The blue hake Antimora rostrata also provides a trophic link between the benthic and pelagic systems, with a diet based primarily on pelagic‐derived carrion. These findings can inform accurate ecosystem models, which are critical for effective management and conservation of methane seep and adjacent deep‐sea habitats in the Southeastern Pacific.  相似文献   

The effects of wildfires on the magnetic properties of soils in the Everglades     

Bradford M. Clement  Jose Javier  Jay P. Sah  Michael S. Ross 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(4):460-466

We present results of a rock‐magnetic study of soils that were affected by wildfires that burned portions of the Everglades in the Spring of 2008. Soils at sites that were extensively burned exhibit a pronounced surface magnetic enhancement effect with magnetizations of surface samples up to 16 times greater than that observed at depth (>7 cm) at these sites. The increase in magnetization results from an increased abundance of a low‐coercivity phase (maghemite) that occurs at the expense of the abundance of a high‐coercivity phase (goethite). These results indicate that fire‐induced heating caused goethite in the surface soils to convert into a more magnetic, low‐coercivity phase, such as maghemite. Goethite is an excellent adsorber of phosphorus, and therefore we hypothesize that the destruction of goethite as a result of burning may have important implications for phosphorus cycling in the Everglades ecosystem. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Porphyry to epithermal transition in the Agua Rica polymetallic deposit, Catamarca, Argentina: An integrated petrologic analysis of ore and alteration parageneses   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Marta Franchini  Agnes Impiccini  David Lentz  Francisco Javier Ríos  Sol O'Leary  Josefina Pons  Abel Isidoro Schalamuk 《Ore Geology Reviews》2011,41(1):49-74

Agua Rica (27°26′S–66°16′O) is a world class Cu–Au–Mo deposit located in Catamarca, Argentina. In the E–W 6969400 section examined, the Seca Norte and the Trampeadero porphyries that have intruded the metasedimentary rock are cut by interfingered igneous and hydrothermal heterolithic and monolithic breccias, and sandy dikes. Relic biotite and K-feldspar of the early potassic alteration (370° to > 550 °C) with Cu (Mo–Au) mineralization are locally preserved and encapsulated in a widespread, white mica + quartz + rutile or anatase halo (phyllic alteration) with pyrite + covellite that suggests fluids with temperatures ≤ 360 °C and high f(S₂). The Trampeadero porphyry and the surrounding metasedimentary rock with phyllic alteration have molybdenite in stringers and B-type quartz veinlets and the highest Mo grades (> 1000 ppm).Multistage advanced argillic alteration overprinted the earlier stages. Early andalusite ± pyrite ± quartz is preserved in the roots of the argillic halo rimmed by an alumina–silica material and white micas. This alteration assemblage is considered to have been formed at temperatures ≥ 375 °C from condensed magmatic vapor. At higher levels, pyrophyllite replaces muscovite and illite in clasts of hydrothermal breccias in the center and east sector of the study section, suggesting temperatures of 280 to 360 °C. Clasts of vuggy silica in the uppermost levels of the central breccia, indicates that at lower temperatures (< 250 °C), fluids reached very low pH (pH < 2). In this early stage of the advanced argillic alteration, hydrothermal fluids seem to have not precipitated sulfides or sulfosalts.Hydrothermal brecciation was concurrent with fluid exsolution (↑? V), which precipitated intermediate-temperature advanced argillic alunite (svanbergite + woodhouseite) ± diaspore ± zunyite as breccia cement along with abundant covellite + pyrite + enargite ± native sulfur ± kuramite at intermediate depths and in lateral transitional zones to unbrecciated rocks. This mineral assemblage indicates temperatures near 300 °C, oxidized and silica-undersaturated hydrothermal fluids with high sulfur fugacity to prevent gold precipitation. Multiple generations of pyrite, emplectite, colusite, Pb- and Bi-bearing sulfosalts, and native sulfur with Au and Ag, accompanied by alunite introduction in the upper level breccias, probably occurred at lower temperatures, but still high sulfur and oxygen activity. An independent Zn and Pb (as galena) mineralization stage locally coincides with Au–Ag and sulfosalts, and advanced at depth, controlled by fractures and overprinting much of the previous mineralization. A later paragenesis of veinlets of alunite + woodhouseite + svanvergite + pyrite ± enargite that cut the phyllic halo suggests temperatures ~ 250 °C and without woodhouseite + svanvergite, temperatures ~ 200 °C. Kaolinite occurs in the phyllic halo as a late mineral in clots and in veinlets thus, in this zone, the fluid had cooled enough for its formation.  相似文献   

Impact of mining activities on sediments in a semi-arid environment: San Pedro River, Sonora, Mexico     

Agustín Gómez-Álvarez  Jesús L. Valenzuela-García  Diana Meza-Figueroa  Margarita de la O-Villanueva  Jorge Ramírez-Hernández  Javier Almendariz-Tapia  Efrén Pérez-Segura 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(12):2101-2112

A study of the San Pedro River (SPR), which is located in a semi-arid region in Sonora, Mexico, was conducted to evaluate the chemical, spatial and temporal (mobilization) trends of potentially harmful metals in its sediment in the rainy and dry seasons. High total concentrations of metals were detected in the following order: Fe > Cu > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cd. All studied metals except for Pb were increased during the dry season showing the effect of climate on the metal distribution in sediments. The results of sequential extraction indicated that the residual and Fe/Mn oxide fractions were the most important with regard to retaining potentially harmful metals in the sediments. In the exchangeable carbonate and Fe oxide fractions, high concentrations of metals were detected, representing high environmental risk. The geoaccumulation index shows slight to moderate contamination in most samples, and sampling point E4 (related to cattle activity) shows strong contamination for Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn. Enrichment factors (EFs) demonstrate anthropogenic origins for Pb (EF: 3–57), Cd (EF: 6–73) and Cu (EF: 1.5–224). This study shows that sediments are impacted by anthropogenic activities related to the mining industry, untreated wastewater discharges from the city of Cananea and cattle activities. Metal mobility in the SPR can disrupt the development of aquatic species in the river.  相似文献   

A 3-D lithospheric model of the Caribbean-South American plate boundary     

Javier Sanchez  Hans-Jürgen Götze  Michael Schmitz 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2011,100(7):1697-1712

A 3-D structural model of the Caribbean-South American plate boundary was constructed by gravity modeling. The model was constrained by four wide-angle seismic refraction sections, Moho depth estimations from receiver functions, and additionally seismological hypocenters, surface geology, and geodynamic information. Density values were calculated from empirical velocity-density functions, and mineralogical-chemical composition considering specific P/T conditions. We tested different structural models for Western and Eastern Venezuela. In the final model, the fit of the measured and modeled gravity fields for a long Caribbean slab in Western Venezuela was better than the fit obtained for a short one. This interpretation is consistent with the constraining data. The slab is interpreted to extend further to the south beneath Northern Colombia and culminates in the area of the seismic cluster of the Bucaramanga nest. The modeling estimates a slab dip angle under Maracaibo and Mérida Andes of 15°, which increases to 32° below 100 km depth. The dip direction of approx. N150°E ± 5 increases lightly eastward. In Eastern Venezuela, considering its short wavelength, lineaments analyzed from gravity data (by curvature methods and Euler deconvolution) seem to be related to shallow structures and density contrast in the Serranía del Interior and not from a deep detached slab beneath the continental crust. It is deduced from modeling results that this slab configuration has a very small influence on the gravity field. The slab was modeled according to the subduction-transform propagation model with purely westward subduction and a slab break off along a vertical dip-slip tear through the lithosphere.  相似文献   

CFD simulation of blasting dust for the design of physical barriers     

Susana Torno  Javier Toraño  Mario Menéndez  Malcolm Gent 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(1):73-83

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has been developed to simulate the dispersion of dust generated in blasting located in limestone quarries. This is a complex phenomenon that has been studied through the use of several digital video recordings of blasts and dust concentration field measurements by ‘light scattering’ dust collectors. In addition, the subsequent simulation of the dispersion of the dust cloud by means of multiphase CFD has also been studied. CFD calculations were carried out using software Ansys CFX 10.0, through transitory models with Lagrangian particle models crossing an Eulerian air continuous phase. This paper presents results obtained by model simulations where physical barriers are set close to the blasting, with the aim of decreasing the dust cloud dispersal and the associated environmental impact.  相似文献   

Furrows in the southern Scan Basin, Antarctica: interplay between tectonic and oceanographic influences     

Francisco Jos�� Lobo  Francisco Javier Hern��ndez-Molina  Fernando Bohoyo  Jes��s Galindo-Zald��var  Andr��s Maldonado  Yasmina Martos  Jos�� Rodr��guez-Fern��ndez  Luis Somoza  Juan Tom��s V��zquez 《Geo-Marine Letters》2011,31(5-6):451-464

Multibeam echosounder data and TOPAS seismic reflection profiles collected during the AntPac 1997, Scan 2004, and Scan 2008 cruises aboard the RV Hespérides reveal a host of surficial geomorphological features as yet poorly investigated in the Scan Basin, south-central Scotia Sea. This area represents one of the deep gateways between the Weddell Sea and the Scotia Sea, since it enables the northward flow of a branch of the Weddell Sea Deep Water (WSDW). Analysis of the data identifies numerous elongated depressions interpreted as furrows in the southernmost sector of the basin. These furrows show two main trends, i.e., either N?CNNW parallel to, or NE oblique to regional bathymetric contours. These trends plausibly reflect a tectonic influence on the bottom-flow distribution, conditioned by a set of recent, conjugate strike-slip faults that developed on the seafloor under dominant NNE?CSSW compression and orthogonal extension. The furrows exhibit distinct geomorphological patterns at either side of the basin, which can be related to west?Ceast asymmetry in the WSDW flow direction. Consistent with existing knowledge of regional WSDW dynamics, northward WSDW overflows would be channeled along the western part of the basin at higher bottom-current velocities, thereby generating more erosional-type furrows that are straighter, more elongated, and have more abrupt sidewalls than their eastern counterparts. In contrast, weaker southward WSDW would flow along the eastern part of the basin, resulting in more depositional-type furrows that are more curved, less elongated, and have gentler sidewalls.  相似文献   

The Imaging and Slitless Spectroscopy Instrument for Surveys (ISSIS): expected radiometric performance,operation modes and data handling     

Ana I. Gómez de Castro  G. Belén Perea  Néstor Sánchez  Javier López Santiago  Jóse Chirivella  Juan Seijas 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,354(1):177-185

ISSIS is the instrument for imaging and slitless spectroscopy on-board WSO-UV. In this article, a detailed comparison between ISSIS expected radiometric performance and other ultraviolet instruments is shown. In addition, we present preliminary information on the performance verification tests and on the foreseen procedures for in-flight operation and data handling.  相似文献   

Heat flow and depth to a possible internal ocean on Triton     

Javier Ruiz 《Icarus》2003,166(2):436-439

The Raz Fossae, a pair of ≈15-km wide trough en echelon interpreted as grabens, can be used to propose an estimation of the depth to the brittle-ductile transition on Triton. This estimation may in turn give an idea of the thermal state of Triton's icy lithosphere when these features formed. Given the young age of its surface, the conclusions obtained could be roughly applicable to the present state of this satellite of Neptune. Considering water or ammonia dihydrate as possible components of the lithosphere and a feasible range of strain rates, it was estimated that surface heat flow is greater than that inferred from radiogenic heating, especially for a lithosphere dominated by water. Also, an internal ocean could lie at a depth of only ∼20 km beneath the surface. The presence over the surface of an insulating layer of ice of low thermal conductivity (e.g., nitrogen) or of regolith would only substantially alter these estimates if the effective surface temperature were considerably higher than the observed value of 38 K.  相似文献