Sustainability Through an Alternative Property‐Rights Regime for Bangladesh's Mangrove Forest     

Anjan Kumer Dev Roy  Khorshed Alam  Jeff Gow 《Geographical review》2013,103(3):372-389

This study examines the challenges of achieving sustainable management of the world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, in Bangladesh. The Sundarbans is currently managed by the Bangladesh Department of Forest, under a state property‐rights regime, while our study explores an alternative property‐rights regime. We employed a mixed‐method approach to examine the prospects of alternative management and livelihood strategies to achieve sustainability. Both focus groups and household surveying were used to assess the opportunities for, and barriers to, achieving sustainability. It was found that two conflicting groups—forest‐dependent communities and foresters—are responsible for policy failures due to the absence of power‐sharing arrangements, nor is it likely a common property‐rights regime will be enough to cap degradation and achieve sustainability, while supply‐and‐demand policy interventions may well could help achieve sustainable management of the Sundarbans.  相似文献   

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH     

Jeff Onsted  Keith C. Clarke 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(5):881-898

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.  相似文献   

A large landslide event in a post‐glacial landscape: rethinking glacial legacy     

Timothy R. H. Davies  Jeff Warburton  Stuart A. Dunning  Alodie A. P. Bubeck 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(11):1261-1268

Threlkeld Knotts (c. 500 m above sea level) in the English Lake District has hitherto been considered to be a glacially‐modified intrusion of microgranite. However, its surface features are incompatible with glacial modification; neither can these nor the subsurface structures revealed by ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) be explained by post‐glacial subaerial processes acting on a glacially‐modified microgranite intrusion. Here we re‐interpret Threlkeld Knotts as a very large post‐glacial landslide involving the microgranite, with an estimated volume of about 4 × 10⁷ m³. This interpretation is tested against published and recent information on the geology of the site, the glacial geomorphic history of the area and newly‐acquired GPR data. More than 60 large post‐Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) rock–slope failures have significantly modified the glaciated landscape of the Lake District; this is one of the largest. Recognition of this major landslide deposit in such a well‐studied environment highlights the need to continuously re‐examine landscapes in the light of increasing knowledge of geomorphic processes and with available technology in currently active or de‐glaciating environments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Annual to decadal morphodynamics of the foredune system at Greenwich Dunes,Prince Edward Island,Canada     

Jeff Ollerhead  Robin Davidson‐Arnott  Ian J. Walker  Sojan Mathew 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(3):284-298

The purpose of this study was to quantify relationships between season, sediment availability, sediment transport pathways, and beach/foredune morphology at Greenwich Dunes, PEI. This was done for periods ranging from a few days to multiple decades using erosion pins, bedframe measurements, annual surveys, and digital photogrammetry using historical aerial photographs. The relative significance of seasonal/annual processes versus response of the foredune system to broader geomorphic controls (e.g. relative sea level rise, storms, etc.) was also assessed. The data show that there are clear seasonal differences in the patterns of sand supply from the beach to the foredune at Greenwich and that there are differences in sediment supply to the foredune between the east and west reaches of the study area, resulting in ongoing differences in foredune morphology. They also demonstrate that models that incorporate wind climate alone, or even models that include other factors like beach moisture, would not be able to predict the amount of sediment movement from the beach to the foredune in this environment unless there were some way to parameterize system morphology, especially the presence or absence of a dune ramp. Finally, the data suggest that the foredune can migrate landward while maintaining its form via transfers of sediment from the stoss slope, over the crest, and onto the lee slope. Although the rate of foredune development or recovery after disturbance changes over time due to morphological feedback, the overall decadal evolution of the foredune system at Greenwich is consistent with, and supports, the Davidson‐Arnott (2005) conceptual model of dune transgression under rising sea level. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Christine C. Shepard  Vera N. Agostini  Ben Gilmer  Tashya Allen  Jeff Stone  William Brooks  Michael W. Beck 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):727-745

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.  相似文献   

Identification and isotopic studies of early Cambrian magmatism (El Carancho Igneous Complex) at the boundary between Pampia terrane and the Río de la Plata craton,La Pampa province,Argentina     

Carlos J. Chernicoff  Eduardo O. Zappettini  João O.S. Santos  Marta C. Godeas  E. Belousova  Neal J. McNaughton 《Gondwana Research》2012,21(2-3):378-393

We have identified late Early Cambrian metaigneous rocks very poorly exposed at the Estancia El Carancho, in central La Pampa province, Argentina. They comprise calc–alkaline metadiorite and metagranite, and tholeiitic metapyroxenite and metagabbro. They are jointly referred to as the El Carancho Igneous Complex, and regarded to pertain to the Pampean magmatic arc and backarc, respectively. Titanite U–Pb SHRIMP dating of the metapyroxenite yielded 528 ± 5 Ma, and zircon U–Pb SHRIMP dating of the metadiorite yielded 520 ± 1.4 Ma. Hafnium isotope determinations on the dated zircons show ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios corresponding to positive εHf values from + 7.18 to + 9.37; Hf model ages of the Cambrian zircons yielded 884 Ma. It is interpreted that the metadiorites of the Complex crystallized from an Early Neoproterozoic (Tonian) juvenile source. We argue that the inferred occurrence of juvenile Tonian magmatic rocks in the (otherwise, mostly Paleo-Mesoproterozoic) substratum of the southern Pampia terrane could indicate a zone of thinned basement possibly associated with the early stage of Rodinia's breakup. In addition, the studied segment of the Pampean magmatic arc is contaminated by also juvenile, Late Mesoproterozoic crust, as evidenced by the presence of xenocrystic cores of 1140–1194 Ma – T_DM-Hf 1720 Ma and εHf values of + 3.24 to + 4.85 – in the Cambrian zircons, hence suggesting that the studied segment of the Pampean magmatic arc was intruded into juvenile Late Mesoproterozoic magmatic arc rocks. The El Carancho Igneous Complex would be located at the tectonic boundary between the Pampia terrane and the Río de la Plata craton. This boundary stands out in the aeromagnetic data as a change in the structural orientation about a roughly N-S line located approximately at 65° W and representing the suture zone between the Pampia terrane and the Río de la Plata craton. Our geotectonic model envisages westward dipping subduction of oceanic crust beneath the Pampia terrane; the El Carancho Igneous Complex would, therefore, have been originated on the Pampia side (upper plate) of the suture. Slivers of the arc- and backarc-type rocks would have been tectonically imbricated in the suture zone during the Pampean orogeny.  相似文献   

Retrowedge-related Carboniferous units and coeval magmatism in the northwestern Neuquén province, Argentina     

Eduardo O. Zappettini  Carlos J. Chernicoff  Joao O. S. Santos  Marcelo Dalponte  Elena Belousova  Neal McNaughton 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2012,101(8):2083-2104

The studied Carboniferous units comprise metasedimentary (Guaraco Norte Formation), pyroclastic (Arroyo del Torreón Formation), and sedimentary (Huaraco Formation) rocks that crop out in the northwestern Neuquén province, Argentina. They form part of the basement of the Neuquén Basin and are mostly coeval with the Late Paleozoic accretionary prism complex of the Coastal Cordillera, south-central Chile. U–Pb SHRIMP dating of detrital zircon yielded a maximum depositional age of 374?Ma (Upper Devonian) for the Guaraco Norte Formation and 389?Ma for the Arroyo del Torreón Formation. Detrital magmatic zircon from the Guaraco Norte Formation are grouped into two main populations of Devonian and Ordovician (Famatinian) ages. In the Arroyo del Torreón Formation, zircon populations are also of Devonian and Ordovician (Famatinian), as well as of Late Neoproterozoic and Mesoproterozoic ages. In both units, there is a conspicuous population of Devonian magmatic zircon grains (from 406?±?4?Ma to 369?±?5?Ma), indicative of active magmatism at that time range. The ε_Hf values of this population range between ?2.84 and ?0.7, and the TDM-(Hf) are mostly Mesoproterozoic, suggesting that the primary sources of the Devonian magmatism contained small amounts of Mesoproterozoic recycled crustal components. The chemical composition of the Guaraco Norte Formation corresponds to recycled, mature polycyclic sediment of mature continental provenance, pointing to a passive margin with minor inputs from continental margin magmatic rocks. The chemical signature of the Huaraco Formation indicates that a magmatic arc was the main provenance for sediments of this unit, which is consistent with the occurrence of tuff—mostly in the Arroyo del Torreón Formation and very scarcely in the Huaraco Formation—with a volcanic-arc signature, jointly indicating the occurrence of a Carboniferous active arc magmatism during the deposition of the two units. The Guaraco Norte Formation is interpreted to represent passive margin deposits of mostly Lower Carboniferous age (younger than 374?Ma and older than 326?Ma) that precede the onset of the accretionary prism in Chile and extend into the earliest stage of the accretion, in a retrowedge position. The Arroyo del Torreón and Huaraco formations are considered to be retrowedge basin deposits to the early frontal accretionary prism (Eastern Series) of Chile. The presence of volcanism with arc signature in the units provides evidence of a Mississippian magmatic arc that can be correlated with limited exposures of the same age in the Frontal Cordillera (Argentina). The arc would have migrated to the West (Coastal Batholith) during Pennsylvanian–Permian times (coevally with the later basal accretionary prism/Western Series). The source of a conspicuous population of Devonian detrital zircon interpreted to be of magmatic origin in the studied units is discussed in various possible geotectonic scenarios, the preferred model being a magmatic arc developed in the Chilenia block, related to a west-dipping subduction beneath Chilenia before and shortly after its collision against Cuyania/Gondwana, at around 390?Ma and not linked to the independent, Devonian–Mississippian arc, developed to the south, in Patagonia.  相似文献   

Observations of Thin Layers in Coastal Hawaiian Waters     

Margaret A. McManus  Jeff C. Sevadjian  Kelly J. Benoit-Bird  Olivia M. Cheriton  Amanda H. V. Timmerman  Chad M. Waluk 《Estuaries and Coasts》2012,35(4):1119-1127

Thin layers of plankton have been documented in a wide variety of environments. The growing body of observations indicates that these features are a critical component of marine ecosystem dynamics and functioning. In the past two decades, much of the research on thin layers was undertaken in temperate coastal waters. Here, we report the first known observations of thin layers of phytoplankton in tropical Hawaiian waters. We conducted an overnight shipboard study during which time we made high-resolution observations of physical and optical structure in the water column. During the overnight cruise, we observed the greatest number of thin layers in the early evening hours when thermal stratification was strongest and most persistent due to a combination of warm air and surface water, as well as light winds. A comparison of these observations with those from temperate regions leads us to hypothesize that the nature and persistence of the physical structure is very important in determining the persistence of thin layered structures. Because plankton biomass is generally lower in tropical regions, the heterogeneous aggregation of food in thin subsurface layers may be more critical to the marine ecosystem than it is in temperate regions where plankton are generally more abundant.  相似文献   

Winter daily precipitation variability over Cumbria, Northwest England     

Robert A. Neal  Ian D. Phillips 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(1-2):245-262

Daily precipitation totals at 55 sites were used to investigate geographic variability in winter (DJF) rainfall over Cumbria, NW England, over an 11-year period. Winter is the wettest season (>800?mm in the mountainous Lake District), with rainfall mechanisms closely linked to North Atlantic forcing. The Lamb weather type catalogue was used to identify rainfall distributions under different wind directions. Precipitation magnitude over Cumbria is much more sensitive to a change in wind direction than the geographic pattern in rainfall, with southwesterly (easterly) winds producing the highest (lowest) spatially averaged daily rainfall totals of 8.2?mm (0.6?mm). S-mode principal components analysis was used to identify the main patterns of precipitation variability. Three principal components (PCs) were retained as being statistically significant (cumulative explained variance for unrotated PCs?=?84.3%), with a correlated PC structure (direct oblimin rotation) best describing the spatial variance in rainfall. PC 1 has a very high index of strength (variance measure?=?40.9), indicating that there is one dominant rainfall pattern. PC 1 shows a gradient between wetter conditions in southwest Cumbria and over the central Lake District and drier conditions in NE Cumbria, and is usually caused by active zonal west to southwest flows. Almost of equal importance to PC 1 is PC 3 (variance measure?=?39.3), which has a more uniform rainfall distribution than PC 1 and is usually caused by fronts stalling over the region. PC 2, which shows an east to west decline in rainfall totals, is much less important than PCs 1 and 3 (variance measure?=?18.6). PC 2??s rainfall pattern can be caused by easterly flows with high pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure over the Continent, or by strong southwesterly flows, with depressions often centred over Scotland. Finally, cluster analysis was carried out to identify precipitation regions for all days and for each wind direction. Clusters were found to be largely stable to changes in wind direction, with stations in the central Lake District often clustered together, thus highlighting the importance of orographic enhancement of rainfall in this region.  相似文献   

A strain-induced freshwater pump in the Liverpool Bay ROFI     

Matthew?Robert?PalmerEmail author  Jeff?A.?Polton 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(11):1905-1915

Liverpool Bay is a region of freshwater influence which receives significant freshwater loading from a number of major English and Welsh rivers. Strong tidal current flow interacts with a persistent freshwater-induced horizontal density gradient to produce strain-induced periodic stratification (SIPS). Recent work (Palmer in Ocean Dyn 60:219–226, 2010; Verspecht et al. in Geophys Res Lett 37:L18602, 2010) has identified significant modification to tidal ellipses in Liverpool Bay during stratification due to an associated reduction in pycnocline eddy viscosity. Palmer (Ocean Dyn 60:219–226, 2010) identified that this modification results in asymmetry in flow in the upper and lower layers capable of permanently transporting freshwater away from the Welsh coastline via a SIPS pumping mechanism. Observational data from a new set of observations from the Irish Sea Observatory site B confirm these results; the measured residual flow is 4.0 cm s⁻¹ to the north in the surface mixed layer and 2.4 cm s⁻¹ to the south in the bottom mixed layer. A realistically forced 3D hydrodynamic ocean model POLCOMS succeeds in reproducing many of the characteristics of flow and vertical density structure at site B and is used to estimate the transport of water through a transect WT that runs parallel with the Welsh coast. Model results show that SIPS is the dominant steady state, occurring for 78.2% of the time whilst enduring stratification exists only 21.0% of the year and enduring mixed periods, <1%. SIPS produces a persistent offshore flow of freshened surface water throughout the year. The estimated net flux of water in the surface mixed layer is 327 km³ year ⁻¹, of which 281 km³ year⁻¹ is attributable to SIPS periods. Whilst the freshwater component of this flux is small, the net flux of freshwater through WT during SIPS is significant, the model estimates 1.69 km³ year⁻¹ of freshwater to be transported away from the coast attributable to SIPS periods equivalent to 23% of annual average river flow from the four catchment areas feeding Liverpool Bay. The results show SIPS pumping to be an important process in determining the fate of freshwater and associated loads entering Liverpool Bay.  相似文献