WHY CAN'T GEOGRAPHERS WRITE THEIR OWN STORY?     

Jerome E. Dobson 《Geographical review》2006,96(3):480-483

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The Monitor project: rotation of low-mass stars in the open cluster M34     

Jonathan Irwin  Suzanne Aigrain  Simon Hodgkin  Mike Irwin  Jerome Bouvier  Cathie Clarke  Leslie Hebb  Estelle Moraux 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,370(2):954-974

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Gray swans: comparison of natural and financial hazard assessment and mitigation     

Jerome L. Stein  Seth Stein 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(3):1279-1297

Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated.  相似文献   

A STREAM-GRADIENT INDEX APPLIED TO SUBHUMID MONTANE STREAMS     

Jerome V. DeGraff 《自然地理学》2013,34(2):174-183

Hack (1973) introduced the stream-gradient index as a measure to analyze longitudinal stream profiles. It is derived from the channel slope at a point and channel length as measured along the longest stream above that point. In the eastern United States, empirical evidence shows the stream-gradient index to be a rough approximation of stream power or competence. Validity of this relationship in other geomorphic and climatic regions was unproven. Eight canyon drainages in the Bear River Range, north-central Utah, provide a basis for testing the validity of stream-gradient index analysis in a subhumid montane area. These drainages are found to have a drainage area to discharge function, rate of increase in channel width downstream, and coverging stream network with an average length proportional to a power of the drainage similar to Hack's original study area. These similarities indicate that use of stream-gradient indices as approximations of stream power are valid in subhumid montane areas. Stream-gradient index analysis of canyon streams in the Bear River Range illustrates drainage adjustment to tectonic activity, bedrock lithology, and structural attitude.  相似文献   

U-Pb geochronology of basement rocks in central Tibet and paleogeographic implications   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

Jerome Guynn  Paul KappGeorge E. Gehrels  Lin Ding 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2012,43(1):23-50

The ages and paleogeographic affinities of basement rocks of Tibetan terranes are poorly known. New U-Pb zircon geochronologic data from orthogneisses of the Amdo basement better resolve Neoproterozoic and Cambro-Ordovician magmatism in central Tibet. The Amdo basement is exposed within the Bangong suture zone between the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes and is composed of granitic orthogneisses with subordinate paragneisses and metasedimentary rocks. The intermediate-felsic orthogneisses show a bimodal distribution of Neoproterozoic (920-820 Ma) and Cambro-Ordovician (540-460 Ma) crystallization ages. These and other sparse basement ages from Tibetan terranes suggest the plateau is underlain by juvenile crust that is Neoproterozoic or younger; its young age and weaker rheology relative to cratonic blocks bounding the plateau margins likely facilitated the propagation of Indo-Asian deformation far into Asia. The Neoproterozoic ages post-date Rodinia assembly and magmatism of similar ages is documented in the Qaidaim-Kunlun terrane, South China block, the Aravalli-Delhi craton in NW India, the Eastern Ghats of India, and the Prince Charles mountains in Antarctica. The Amdo Neoproterozoic plutons cannot be unambiguously related to one of these regions, but we propose that the Yangtze block of the South China block is the most likely association, with the Amdo basement representing a terrane that possibly rifted from the active Yangtze margin in the middle Neoproterozoic. Cambro-Ordovician granitoids are ubiquitous throughout Gondwana as a product of active margin tectonics following Gondwana assembly and indicate that the Lhasa-Qiangtang terranes were involved in these tectono-magmatic events. U-Pb detrital zircon analysis of two quartzites from the Amdo basement suggest that the protoliths were Carboniferous-Permian continental margin strata widely deposited across the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes. The detrital zircon age spectra of the upper Paleozoic Tibetan sandstones and other rocks deposited in East Gondwana during the late Neoproterozoic and Paleozoic are all quite similar, making it difficult to use the age spectra for paleogeographic determinations. There is a suggestion in the data that the Qiangtang terrane may have been located further west along Gondwana’s northern boundary than the Lhasa terrane, but more refined spatial and temporal data are needed to verify this configuration.  相似文献   

Late Occupation of the High‐Elevation Northern Tibetan Plateau Based on Cosmogenic,Luminescence, and Radiocarbon Ages     

P. Jeffrey Brantingham  Gao Xing  David B. Madsen  David Rhode  Charles Perreault  Jerome van der Woerd  John W. Olsen 《Geoarchaeology》2013,28(5):413-431

¹⁰Be‐²⁶Al cosmogenic surface exposure, optically stimulated luminescence, and radiocarbon dates from the site of Xidatan 2 (∼4300 m above sea level [asl] in the Kunlun Pass, northern Tibetan Plateau) suggest the site was intermittently and briefly occupied approximately 9200–6400 yr B.P. This age is substantially younger than expected given the late Upper Paleolithic character of the lithic assemblage, which is dominated by microlithic and unique discoidal prepared core technologies. Comparisons between Xidatan 2 and known surface lithic assemblages in the Kekexili and Chang Tang regions of the central high Plateau show not only that the latter are technologically similar to Xidatan 2, but also that they are demonstrably connected to Xidatan 2 through utilization of the same stone raw materials, which includes a chemically distinctive obsidian. Contrary to most accounts of Tibetan Plateau colonization, our results suggest that the earliest substantial occupations on the interior Tibetan Plateau above 4000 m asl may date to the Pleistocene/Holocene transition.  相似文献   

Subspace system identification of support‐excited structures—part I: theory and black‐box system identification     

Junhee Kim  Jerome P. Lynch 《地震工程与结构动力学》2012,41(15):2235-2251

This paper reviews the theoretical principles of subspace system identification as applied to the problem of estimating black‐box state‐space models of support‐excited structures (e.g., structures exposed to earthquakes). The work distinguishes itself from past studies by providing readers with a powerful geometric interpretation of subspace operations that relates directly to theoretical structural dynamics. To validate the performance of subspace system identification, a series of experiments are conducted on a multistory steel frame structure exposed to moderate seismic ground motions; structural response data is used off‐line to estimate black‐box state‐space models. Ground motions and structural response measurements are used by the subspace system identification method to derive a complete input–output state‐space model of the steel frame system. The modal parameters of the structure are extracted from the estimated input–output state‐space model. With the use of only structural response data, output‐only state‐space models of the system are also estimated by subspace system identification. The paper concludes with a comparison study of the modal parameters extracted from the input–output and output‐only state‐space models in order to quantify the uncertainties present in modal parameters extracted from output‐only models. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Decentralized ℋ︁∞ controller design for large‐scale civil structures     

Yang Wang  Jerome P. Lynch  Kincho H. Law 《地震工程与结构动力学》2009,38(3):377-401

Complexities inherent to large‐scale modern civil structures pose many challenges in the design of feedback structural control systems for dynamic response mitigation. With the emergence of low‐cost sensors and control devices creating technologies from which large‐scale structural control systems can deploy, a future control system may contain hundreds, or even thousands, of such devices. Key issues in such large‐scale structural control systems include reduced system reliability, increasing communication requirements, and longer latencies in the feedback loop. To effectively address these issues, decentralized control strategies provide promising solutions that allow control systems to operate at high nodal counts. This paper examines the feasibility of designing a decentralized controller that minimizes the ??_∞ norm of the closed‐loop system. ??_∞ control is a natural choice for decentralization because imposition of decentralized architectures is easy to achieve when posing the controller design using linear matrix inequalities. Decentralized control solutions are investigated for both continuous‐time and discrete‐time ??_∞ formulations. Numerical simulation results using a 3‐story and a 20‐story structure illustrate the feasibility of the different decentralized control strategies. The results also demonstrate that when realistic semi‐active control devices are used in combination with the decentralized ??_∞ control solution, better performance can be gained over the passive control cases. It is shown that decentralized control strategies may provide equivalent or better control performance, given that their centralized counterparts could suffer from longer sampling periods due to communication and computation constraints. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Characterizing turbulent wind flow around dryland vegetation          下载免费PDF全文

Jerome R. Mayaud  Giles F.S. Wiggs  Richard M. Bailey 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(10):1421-1436

Wind flow has been studied in situations where it encounters porous and solid windbreaks, but there has been a lack of research exploring turbulent wind dynamics around and in the lee of real vegetation elements. In dryland contexts, sparse vegetation plays an important role in modulating both the erosivity of the wind and the erodibility of surfaces. Therefore, understanding the interactions between wind and vegetation is key for improving wind erosion modelling in desert landscapes. In this study, turbulent wind flow around three typical dryland vegetation elements (a grass clump, a shrub, and a tree) was examined in Namibia using high‐frequency (10 Hz) sonic anemometry. Spatial variations in mean wind velocity, as well as Reynolds stresses and coherent turbulent structures in the flow, were compared and related to the porosities and configurations of the study elements. A shelter parameter, originally proposed by Gandemer ( 1979 , Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamic 4 : 371–389), was derived to describe the combined impact of the different elements on the energy and variability of horizontal wind flow. Wind velocity was reduced by 70% in the immediate lee of the grass and 40% in the lee of the shrub, but velocity recovered exponentially to equilibrium over the same relative distance in both cases (~9 element heights downwind). Quadrant analysis of the high‐frequency wind flow data revealed that the grass clump induced a small recirculation zone in its lee, whereas the shrub did not. Also, higher Reynolds shear stress and higher ‘flow positivity magnitude’ [ratio of Q1 (outward interaction) and Q4 (sweep) quadrants to Q2 (ejection) and Q3 (inward interaction) quadrants] was generally observed in the wake of the grass. These differences arose because the porosity of the grass clump (53%) was lower than the porosity of the shrub (69%), and thus bleed flow through the shrub was more significant. The bluff‐body behaviour of the grass resulted in a more intense and more extensive sheltering effect than the shrub, which implies that overall sediment transport potential is lower in the wake of the grass. The tree displayed a different wake structure to the grass and shrub, owing to the elevation of its crown. A ‘bottom gap’ effect was observed, whereby wind velocities increased possibly due to streamline compression in the gap between the ground and the underside of the tree crown. Differences in flow momentum between the bottom gap and the low‐pressure leeward region of the crown are a probable explanation for the formation of a large recirculation vortex. The bottom gap effect led to decreased sheltering up to three tree heights downwind, but the surface became increasingly protected by the frontal impact of the crown over a further eight tree heights downwind (~30 m). The extraction of momentum from the air by the tree therefore resulted in a far more extensive sheltering effect compared to the grass and shrub. This study represents an important investigation of the impact of different vegetation types on turbulent wind flow, and results can be integrated as parameterizations into spatial sediment transport models that explore landscape‐scale change on semi‐vegetated desert surfaces. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Crystal settling and convection in the Shiant Isles Main Sill     

Marian?B.?HolnessEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Robert?Farr  Jerome?A.?Neufeld 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(1):7

The 168 m-thick Shiant Isles Main Sill is a composite body, dominated by an early, 24 m-thick, picrite sill formed by the intrusion of a highly olivine-phyric magma, and a later 135 m-thick intrusion of olivine-phyric magma that split the earlier picrite into a 22 m-thick lower part and a 2 m-thick upper part, forming the picrodolerite/crinanite unit (PCU). The high crystal load in the early picrite prevented effective settling of the olivine crystals, which retain their initial stratigraphic distribution. In contrast, the position of the most evolved rocks of the PCU at a level ~80% of its total height point to significant accumulation of crystals on the floor, as evident by the high olivine mode at the base of the PCU. Crystal accumulation on the PCU floor occurred in two stages. During the first, most of the crystal load settled to the floor to form a modally and size-sorted accumulation dominated by olivine, leaving only the very smallest olivine grains still in suspension. The second stage is recorded by the coarsening-upwards of individual olivine grains in the picrodolerite, and their amalgamation into clusters which become both larger and better sintered with increasing stratigraphic height. Large clusters of olivine are present at the roof, forming a foreshortened mirror image of the coarsening-upwards component of the floor accumulation. The coarsening-upwards sequence records the growth of olivine crystals while in suspension in a convecting magma, and their aggregation into clusters, followed by settling over a prolonged period (with limited trapping at the roof). As olivine was progressively lost from the convecting magma, crystal accumulation on the (contemporaneous) floor of the PCU was increasingly dominated by plagioclase, most likely forming clusters and aggregates with augite and olivine, both of which form large poikilitic grains in the crinanite. While the PCU is unusual in being underlain by an earlier, still hot, intrusion that would have enhanced any driving force for convection, we conclude from comparison with microstructures in other sills that convection is likely in tabular bodies >100 m thickness.  相似文献