镇江市酸雨特征及影响因素分析     

孙翠梅  孔启亮  郭煜  吴琼  钱鹏  周勍 《气象与环境学报》2016,(4):83-90

利用2008年1月至2012年12月镇江市酸雨观测资料,详细分析了镇江市酸雨强度和发生频率的年、季、月变化特征,并对影响酸雨发生的气象因素进行了分析。结果表明:镇江市酸雨年、季、月平均pH值均较低,酸雨强度均较大,春季和秋季是酸雨的高发季节。由降水量、风向、逆温及外来污染源垂直输送等气象要素对镇江市酸雨的影响可知,镇江市强酸雨的发生频率和占总降水量的比例均较高;NE、SE和E这3个风向对镇江地区酸雨的总贡献率超过50.0%;华北、华东、湖南和湖北地区是镇江市酸雨发生的可能外来污染源;低层(925hPa及以下高度)出现逆温时,更易出现酸雨,且逆温层厚度均较深厚;逆温温差的强度与酸雨强度有一定的关系,即温差越大,pH值越低,酸雨强度越大。  相似文献   

四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害风险评估     

张菡  刘晓璐  房鹏 《气象科技》2016,44(3):468-473

以四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害为研究对象,将烤烟气候适应性特征和自然灾害系统论相结合,利用冰雹频率、DEM高程数据、下垫面类型以及农业经济数据等资料,构建冰雹灾害风险评估指标体系,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和抗灾能力4个方面进行分析,最终建立四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害精细化风险评估模型并计算风险分布指数,借此将攀西烟区划分为由高至低的5个风险区域和1个不适宜种植区。结果表明,安宁河源头河谷地区、雅砻江下游流域以及攀西地区南部的河谷低山区和丘陵区冰雹灾害风险处于较高水平。评估结果为区域烤烟种植结构调整及冰雹灾害防御工作提供了科学指导。  相似文献   

Influence of coastal wind on surface ozone and nitrogen oxides in suburban Shanghai     

Wenpo Shan  Peng Yang  Haixia Lu  Kefeng Ma  Zhixin Huang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):451-458

Surface ozone, NO, NO₂, and NO _x were measured at a coastal site (Shihua) and a nearby inland site (Zhujing) in suburban Shanghai for the whole year of 2009. More days with ozone pollution in a longer time range were observed at the coastal site than the inland site. The diurnal variations of NO _x concentrations were obviously higher at Zhujing station, while those of ozone concentrations were higher at Shihua station, indicating their different air pollution conditions. Coastal wind has significant influence on the levels and characteristics of the air pollutants. The ozone concentrations during maritime winds (MW) were much higher than those during continental winds (CW) at each of the site, while the NO and NO₂ concentrations were both opposite. The ozone concentrations at Shihua station were much higher than those at Zhujing station, while the NO and NO₂ concentrations were both opposite. The ozone concentrations at both of the two sites showed a distinct “weekend effects” and “weekdays effects” patterns during CW and MW, respectively. Correlation analysis of the pollutants showed that, the compounds during MW were more age than those during CW, and the compounds at Shihua were more age than those at Zhujing. The air pollutions at both of the two sites are mainly associated with the pollutants emitted in this region instead of long range transport.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS     

Prasanta Kumar Bal  Andimuthu Ramachandran  Kandasamy Palanivelu  Perumal Thirumurugan  Rajadurai Geetha  Balakrishnan Bhaskaran 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):519-519

The author “Bhaski Bhaskaran” and his affiliation “Fujitsu Laboratory of Europe, Middlesex, UK” should be replaced by “Balakrishnan Bhaskaran”, “Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe Limited, Hayes Park, Middlesex, UK”, respectively.The corrected name and affiliation are shown in this erratum.  相似文献   

Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods     

Keunhee Han  JunTae Choi  Chansoo Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):495-507

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.  相似文献   

Development of statistical seasonal prediction models of Arctic Sea Ice concentration using CERES absorbed solar radiation     

Yoojin Kim  Ha-Rim Kim  Yong-Sang Choi  WonMoo Kim  Hye-Sil Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(5):467-477

Statistical seasonal prediction models for the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) were developed for the late summer (August-October) when the downward trend is dramatic. The absorbed solar radiation (ASR) at the top of the atmosphere in June has a significant seasonal leading role on the SIC. Based on the lagged ASR-SIC relationship, two simple statistical models were established: the Markovian stochastic and the linear regression models. Crossvalidated hindcasts of SIC from 1979 to 2014 by the two models were compared with each other and observation. The hindcasts showed general agreement between the models as they share a common predictor, ASR in June and the observed SIC was well reproduced, especially over the relatively thin-ice regions (of one- or multi-year sea ice). The robust predictability confirms the functional role of ASR in the prediction of SIC. In particular, the SIC prediction in October was quite promising probably due to the pronounced icealbedo feedback. The temporal correlation coefficients between the predicted SIC and the observed SIC were 0.79 and 0.82 by the Markovian and regression models, respectively. Small differences were observed between the two models; the regression model performed slightly better in August and September in terms of temporal correlation coefficients. Meanwhile, the prediction skills of the Markovian model in October were higher in the north of Chukchi, the East Siberian, and the Laptev Seas. A strong non-linear relationship between ASR in June and SIC in October in these areas would have increased the predictability of the Markovian model.  相似文献   

北淮阳构造带的属性及其对板块缝合线位置的启示   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

黄鹏  宋传中  任升莲  LIN Shouf  张妍  李加好  刘欢  王微  杨帆  刘啟能 《地质学报》2016,90(6):1112-1129

北淮阳构造带为一条沿大别造山带北麓展布的狭长构造带,是华北板块与扬子板块碰撞造山的产物,其物源组成、构造属性等研究内容是揭示南北板块在中国东部的大地构造单元格局以及时空演化的关键信息。结合构造变形、岩石学、岩石地球化学、锆石U-Pb年代学等方法对北淮阳前中生代岩石地层单元苏家河群/卢镇关群和信阳群/佛子岭群进行对比分析,就其构造属性形成这样的基本认识:北淮阳构造带是杨子板块向华北板块俯冲-碰撞的结合带,其物质组成具有双源性-主体部分来源于杨子板块,由代表了杨子板块北缘基底的晚元古代苏家河群(784±19Ma)/卢镇关群(756±12Ma)和杨子板块被动陆缘复理石沉积建造-中泥盆世至晚泥盆世早期的信阳群南湾组组成,后者相当于商丹缝合带以南的刘岭群;信阳群龟山组亲缘于华北板块并构成华北板块南缘的弧前楔形沉积体,是沿商丹缝合带分布的桃花铺弧前楔形沉积体的东延。佛子岭群总体可与信阳群相连,全岩成分显示,佛子岭群沉积构造环境既有活动大陆边缘,又有被动大陆边缘。由于中生代以来多期构造变形叠加(至少三期),佛子岭群岩石地层单元的叠置关系被改造或重置,使其缺少"构造解体"的证据,而无法在构造单元上细分。对于两大板块之间的缝合带位置,笔者认为:商丹缝合带进入北淮阳构造带后,应沿着北淮阳的北界,与龟山-梅山-六安-磨墩水库一线延伸的断裂带相连。  相似文献   

辽东湾坳陷东部地区走滑双重构造的发育特征 及其石油地质意义   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

吴智平  张婧  任健  徐长贵  李伟  张晓庆 《地质学报》2016,90(5):848-856

在将构造发育特征与走滑双重构造理论模型进行类比分析的基础上,对辽东湾坳陷东部地区的走滑双重构造的发育特征进行了研究,并结合油气勘探实践成果,就其石油地质意义进行了探讨,研究结果表明:在受控于走滑与拉伸并存的多动力源区域地质背景下,辽东湾坳陷新生代构造演化体现了断陷与拗陷、拉张与走滑的叠加效应,NNE走向的辽中1号断裂、辽中2号断裂及辽东断裂的发育不仅控制了辽东湾坳陷东部地区的凸凹格局,其走滑侧接关系也导致了研究区走滑双重构造的发育;辽东凸起是由于辽中2号断裂、辽东断裂走滑弯曲、右行左阶侧接而形成的挤压走滑双重构造,而辽中凹陷在早期拉张断陷基础上,经历了后期走滑作用的改造,其断裂体系的发育体现了辽中1号断裂与辽中2号断裂的右旋右行侧列所产生的拉张走滑双重构造效应;在走滑双重构造的增压带,断裂侧向封堵性强,有利于形成有效的断层圈闭,是油气藏发育的有利区带。  相似文献   

下扬子PTB界线深水相区粘土岩的火山成因研究及其对LPME的指示意义     

廖志伟  胡文瑄  王小林  曹剑  姚素平  万野 《地质学报》2016,90(4):785-800

全球,尤其是特提斯域二叠—三叠纪之交(PTB)剖面中普遍发育火山成因的粘土岩,对理解晚二叠世末生物大灭绝(LPME)的触发机制及相关基础地质问题具有重要意义。本文报道了在华南下扬子区新发现两条深水PTB剖面(皖南牛山和蔡村)的粘土岩工作,包括岩石学、矿物学和全岩地球化学等,填补了区域研究空白。研究结果发现,粘土岩主要由伊利石等粘土矿物,以及石英、岩浆锆石、长石等斑晶矿物组成。在地球化学上具有高K_2O、低Na_2O、相对富集大离子亲石元素(LILE)、相对亏损高场强元素(HFSE)等特征。据此,认为这些粘土岩为火山成因的钾质斑脱岩,其原岩可能为中酸性流纹英安岩,具有弧岩浆作用的源区背景。对比华南其他地区已发现的PTB界线粘土岩,发现它们成因类似,可能来源于古特提斯洋周缘陆陆碰撞,抑或是泛大洋俯冲潘吉亚大陆东缘(包括华南板块)所导致的长英质火山岩浆喷发,且具有多期多源性特点。PTB时期全球活跃的火山岩浆活动(包括镁铁质火山作用和华南地区火山灰所指征的长英质火山作用)可能是导致LPME的主要原因。  相似文献   

内蒙古东升庙和炭窑口多金属硫化物矿床铁同位素地球化学特征及其成矿指示意义     

高兆富  朱祥坤  高文革  王炳林  孙剑  罗照华  包创  唐超 《地质学报》2016,90(2):352-360

本文报道了内蒙古狼山成矿带内两个最大的铅锌多金属硫化物矿床——东升庙矿床和炭窑口矿床中黄铁矿、黄铜矿单矿物的铁同位素研究结果。东升庙矿床绢云石墨片岩中不规则状黄铁矿的铁同位素组成δ~(56)Fe_(-IRMM)值在+0.04‰~+1.11‰之间,呈现铁的重同位素富集,指示了海水中的铁以氧化态沉淀并在成岩期转化成黄铁矿的矿化过程。东升庙和炭窑口矿床富硫化物矿石中黄铁矿和黄铜矿的铁同位素组成δ~(56)Fe_(-IRMM)值的变化范围为-1.33‰~+0.08‰,具有热液成矿特征,指示金属成矿物质来源于热液流体。另外,绢云石墨片岩中脉状黄铁矿的铁同位素组成δ~(56)Fe_(-IRMM)值的变化范围为-0.39‰~-0.04‰,处于矿石黄铁矿和围岩不规则状黄铁矿之间,指示脉状黄铁矿是热液矿化的产物,并在成矿过程中混入了围岩中早先形成的富集铁的重同位素的黄铁矿。绢云石墨片岩中广泛发育的不规则状黄铁矿与赋存在绢云石墨片岩中的富硫化物矿体具有完全不同的铁同位素组成,指示热液活动对不规则状黄铁矿没有明显成矿物质贡献,因此同沉积热液活动成矿的可能性不大。结合赋存在白云石大理岩中硫化物矿体的顶、底部常见硅化的白云石大理岩角砾,本文提出后生矿化是东升庙多金属硫化物矿体的主要成矿方式。另外,东升庙矿床和炭窑口矿床的矿石硫化物具有相似的铁同位素组成特征,指示两者的成矿物质来源具有相似性。  相似文献