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91.
BCC S2S模式对亚洲夏季风准双周振荡预报评估   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0       下载免费PDF全文
利用1994-2013年ERA-Interim及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对国家气候中心(BCC)次季节到季节尺度模式(S2S)1994-2013年的回报试验数据进行亚洲季风区准双周振荡(QBWO)预报能力评估,并诊断模式预报误差来源。结果表明:BCC S2S模式对QBWO的预报能力随着预报提前时间的增长而降低,9 d后预报技巧明显减弱,其周期、传播特征和强度出现误差;在提前9 d预报中,印度洋地区QBWO对流-环流系统结构松散,信号偏弱,对流向东传播,这与印度洋平均态的预报误差有关,夏季对流平均态低层水汽场在西太平洋和阿拉伯海较强,而东印度洋、孟加拉湾一带偏弱;西北太平洋地区QBWO具有向西北传播的特征,但强度偏弱,可能原因是预报低估了QBWO对流西北侧低层涡度的超前信号,经涡度方程诊断发现,地转涡度平流正贡献微弱,相对涡度平流在对流西北侧引发负涡度,从而减弱了对流西北侧由低层正涡度引发的有利条件。  相似文献   
92.
Zhe Deng  Dongya Li  Tao Pang 《Climate Policy》2018,18(8):992-1011
China is in the process of establishing a national emissions trading system (ETS). Evaluating the implementation effectiveness of the seven pilot ETSs in China is critical for designing this national system. This study administered a questionnaire survey to assess the behaviour of enterprises covered by the seven ETS pilots from the perspective of: the strictness of compliance measures; rules for monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV); the mitigation pressure felt by enterprises; and actual mitigation and trading activities. The results show that the pilot MRV and compliance rules have not yet been fully implemented. The main factors involved are the lack of compulsory force of the regulations and the lack of policy awareness within the affected enterprises. Most enterprises have a shortage of free allowances and thus believe that the ETSs have increased their production costs. Most enterprises have already established mitigation targets. Some of the covered enterprises are aware of their own internal emission reduction costs and most of these have used this as an important reference in trading. Many enterprises have accounted for carbon prices in their long-term investment. The proportion of enterprises that have participated in trading is fairly high; however, reluctance to sell is quite pervasive in the market, and enterprises are mostly motivated to trade simply in order to achieve compliance. Few enterprises are willing to manage their allowances in a market-oriented manner. Different free allowance allocation methods directly affect the pathways enterprises take to control emissions.

Key policy insights

  • In the national ETS, the compulsory force of ETS provisions should be strengthened.

  • A reasonable level of free allowance shortage should be ensured to promote emission reduction by enterprises.

  • Sufficient information should be provided to guide enterprises in their allowance management to activate the market.

  • To promote the implementation of mitigation technologies by enterprises, actual output-based allocation methods should be used.

  • The government should use market adjustment mechanisms, such as a price floor and ceiling, to ensure that carbon prices are reasonable and stable, so as to guide long-term low carbon investment.

  相似文献   
93.
This paper aims to compare the geochemical characteristics of loess-paleosol sequences in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang and Weihe river valleyswhich are located in the semi-humid temperate zone and humid subtropical zonerespectively. The Mituosi(MTS) profile in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River valley and the Yaohecun(YHC) profile in the Weihe River valley were selected for this comparative research. The stratigraphic characteristicscompositionchemical weathering intensityleaching rates of Ca and Namobility of major elementsand transport features of Na and Fe were analyzed with respect to depth and compared between the two profiles. This study reached the following conclusions.(1) The composition of the loess-paleosol sequences in two regions are quite similar to the average composition of the upper continental crust(UCC)indicating that the loess in the two regions came from multiple sources and was mixed well. Thereforethe loess in the two regions is considered aeolian loess.(2) Compared with the loess-paleosol sequence in the Weihe River valleythe loess-paleosol sequence in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River valley features a darker color; a higher chemical index of alteration(CIA) value; higher leaching rates of Na and Ca; higher migration ratio(relative to K) of AlSiMgand Na; and lower migration ratio of Fe and Ca. This evidence indicates that the loess-paleosol sequence in the humid subtropical environment experienced stronger chemical weathering intensity than the loess-paleosol sequence in the semi-humid temperate zone.(3) Both the YHC profile and MTS profile record a period of climate deterioration at 6000–5000 a BP. The period punctuated the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum(8500–3100 a BP) in the study area.  相似文献   
94.
The three-dimensional wind velocity and dynamic pressure for stationary tornado-like vortices that developed over ground of different roughness categories were investigated to clarify the effects of ground roughness. Measurements were performed for various roughness categories and two swirl ratios. Variations of the vertical and horizontal distributions of velocity and pressure with roughness are presented, with the results showing that the tangential, radial, and axial velocity components increase inside the vortex core near the ground under rough surface conditions. Meanwhile, clearly decreased tangential components are found outside the core radius at low elevations. The high axial velocity inside the vortex core over rough ground surface indicates that roughness produces an effect similar to a reduced swirl ratio. In addition, the pressure drop accompanying a tornado is more significant at elevations closer to the ground under rough compared with smooth surface conditions. We show that the variations of the flow characteristics with roughness are dependent on the vortex-generating mechanism, indicating the need for appropriate modelling of tornado-like vortices.  相似文献   
95.
海冰与海水的交界地带是海-冰-气相互作用的重要区域,其变化会影响海洋生物栖息地的联通状态和海洋、大气的交换,确定海冰边界对于分析海冰动态变化具有重要意义[1-2]。被动微波传感器为长期监测海冰变化提供了大尺度的连续观测数据。从经典统计、随机集理论出发,应用三种由被动微波日均海冰密集度数据提取月均海冰边界的方法,分析三种月均边界的差异,以及不同月均边界提取方法对海冰长期变化分析的影响。  相似文献   
96.
作为勘查和开发直接对象的含金地质体是金矿床工业价值的决定性要素,是金矿床地质特征的本质规定,也是人们最易识别和掌握的直观标志,以此作为金矿床工业类型的分类基础,划分出10类金矿床:(1)石英脉型;(2)糜棱岩型;(3)蚀变碎裂岩型;(4)冰长石-绢云母石英脉型;(5)角砾岩型;(6)矽卡岩型;(7)微细浸染型;(8)红土型;(9)铁帽型;(10)砂砾层型  相似文献   
97.
庞春勇 《矿产与地质》1999,13(6):374-378
探讨市场经济和杆对矿产勘查开发的制约作用,认为提高矿产勘查业的经济策略认识,用市场经营的理念策划矿产勘查开发项目的立项及操作运转,对目前矿业投资,矿产勘查具有现实意义。  相似文献   
98.
1 INTRODUCTION Debrisflowsoccurwhenrainstormsortheelevationofundergroundwaterlevelcauseloosedepositsorpetrifiedobjectssuchasp?..  相似文献   
99.
雨水入渗对非饱和土坡稳定性影响的参数研究   总被引:57,自引:1,他引:56  
很多国家和地区的斜坡失稳与雨水入渗有密切关系。通过参数分析研究可以深化对这种关系的认识和理解,因而对滑坡灾害的预测和预防有重要意义。针对香港地区一种典型非饱和土斜坡,用有限元法模拟雨水入渗引起的暂态渗流场,然后将计算得到的暂态孔隙水压力分布用于斜坡的极限平衡分析。计算中采用延伸的摩尔-库伦破坏准则以便考虑基质吸力对抗剪强度的贡献,研究了降雨特征、水文地质条件及坡面防渗处理等因素对暂态渗流场和斜坡安全因数的影响。数值模拟结果表明:降雨强度、降雨历时和雨型对暂态渗流场及斜坡稳定性有明显的影响;土体的渗透系数,尤其是渗透系数各向异性的影响特别显著;斜坡中相对隔水层的存在以及斜坡防渗护面的效果等因素的影响均不容忽视。  相似文献   
100.
The seasonal circulation in the southeastern Huanghai Sea has been studied with hydrographic data,which were observed in February and June 1994 and bimonthly during 1970-1990,and numerical model results.Horiwntal distributions of temperature and salinity in 1994 are quite different due to strong tidal mixing so that we need a analysis to see the real distributions of water masses.The mixing ratio analysis with the data of 1970-1990 shows the connection of the waters in the west coasts of Kotea Peninsula with warm and saline waters from the south in summer,which means northward inflows along the west coasts of Korea Peninsula in summer.With this flow,the seasonal circulations,which are deduced from the seasonal change of water mass distributions in the lower layer,are warm inflows in winter and mld outflows in summer in the central Huanghai Sea,and cold outflows in winter and warm inflows in summer along the west coasts of Korea Peninsula.The seasonally changed inflows might be the Huanghai Sea Warm Current.The monsoon winds can drive such circulations.However,summer monsoon winds are weak and irregular.As one of other possible dynamics,the variation of Kuroshio transport is numerically studied with allowing sea level fluctuations.Although it should be studied more,it possibly drives the summer circulations.The real circulations seem to be driven by both of them.  相似文献   
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