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591.
Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
G. J. Kenny R. A. Warrick B. D. Campbell G. C. Sims M. Camilleri P. D. Jamieson N. D. Mitchell H. G. McPherson M. J. Salinger 《Climatic change》2000,46(1-2):91-113
The determination of `critical thresholds'is an essential task for informed policydecisions on establishing greenhouse gas emissiontargets. This paper presents a framework fordetermining critical thresholds for New Zealandagriculture, focusing on three agriculturalcrops – kiwifruit, grain maize, andPaspalum dilatatum – as exemplars for the fruitproduction, arable cropping and dairy productionindustries in New Zealand. The approach is based onthe application of a country-scale, integratedassessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTSsystem contains a climate change scenario generator,climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependentassessments of climate change and its effects, whichfacilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated. 相似文献
592.
有限元法在滑坡稳定性分析中的应用 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
对比了滑坡稳定性分析的极限平衡法、数值分析法、概率法。而后,介绍了有限元法滑坡稳定性分析基本原理,并应用有限元法对中里滑坡进行了稳定性分析,得出了中里滑坡的主应力图和稳定系数,并将稳定系数与其他方法的结果进行了比较,得出有限元法是一种可靠的分析方法,其结果可应用于后期治理设计。 相似文献
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John L. Spiesberger Harley E. Hurlburt Mark Johnson Mark Keller Steven Meyers Jim O'Brien 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1998,26(4):209-240
An interpretation is made of interannual changes in acoustic travel time between Oahu and seven receivers at distances of 3000–4000 km. Measurements were made in late 1983, and over two 5-month intervals between 1987 and 1989. Previous publications demonstrated that these changes stem from variations in temperature. Two hydrodynamic ocean models are used to identify plausible oceanic features that could cause these variations. They are from the Naval Research Laboratory and the Florida State University at (1/8)° and (1/6)° resolution, respectively, and are forced with different interannual wind sets for more than a decade. Modelled El Niño's and La Niña's generate poleward travelling Kelvin waves on the eastern boundary of the Pacific. These excite Rossby waves that propagate westward at mid-latitudes. Rossby waves are the dominant model features which affect the modelled acoustic travel times, and hence section-averaged temperatures in the eastern North Pacific. These waves yield travel times whose standard deviations and rates of changes are similar to the measurements. In the observations, some sections separated by less than 500 km exhibit trends in heat content with opposite signs. Similar variability can be explained with modelled Rossby waves. Model wavelengths less than 500 km, eddies, and seasonal cycles induced by seasonal winds yield travel times that are two orders of magnitude too small to account for the data. 相似文献
595.
Ticona Rollano Fadia Brown Adam Ellenson Ashley Özkan-Haller H. Tuba Thomson Jim Haller Merrick C. 《Ocean Dynamics》2019,69(10):1165-1179
Ocean Dynamics - In the presence of strong winds, ocean surface waves dissipate significant amounts of energy by breaking. Here, breaking rates and wave-following turbulent dissipation rate... 相似文献
596.
Christopher J. Skinner Nadav Peleg Niall Quinn Tom J. Coulthard Peter Molnar Jim Freer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(11):2512-2523
Rainfall products can contain significantly different spatiotemporal estimates, depending on their underlying data and final constructed resolution. Commonly used products, such as rain gauges, rain gauge networks, and weather radar, differ in their information content regarding intensities, spatial variability, and natural climatic variability, therefore producing different estimates. Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the geomorphic changes in landscapes, and current models can simulate timeframes from event level to millions of years and some use rainfall inputs to drive them. However, the impact of different rainfall products on LEM outputs has never been considered. This study uses the STREAP rainfall generator, calibrated using commonly used rainfall observation products, to produce longer rainfall records than the observations to drive the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to examine how differences in rainfall products affect simulated landscapes. The results show that the simulation of changes to basin geomorphology is sensitive to the differences between rainfall products, with these differences expressed linearly in discharges but non-linearly in sediment yields. Furthermore, when applied over a 1500-year period, large differences in the simulated long profiles were observed, with the simulations producing greater sediment yields showing erosion extending further downstream. This suggests that the choice of rainfall product to drive LEMs has a large impact on the final simulated landscapes. The combination of rainfall generator model and LEMs represents a potentially powerful method for assessing the impacts of rainfall product differences on landscapes and their short- and long-term evolution. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd 相似文献
597.
Laura Rodríguez-Rodríguez Loreto Antón Raimon Pallàs Daniel García-Castellanos Ivone Jiménez-Munt Candela Pastor-Martín 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(4):1013-1027
Fluvial terraces are used as geomorphic indicators for deciphering long-term landscape evolution. Knowing the distribution of fluvial terraces is essential for establishing former river profiles and their tectonic significance, for studying climate-modulated processes of terrace development, or for defining fluvial network adjustments in response to sudden base-level changes like those produced by fluvial captures. Multiple methods for automatic map production have been proposed based on the comparison of morphometric indices with those of the modern river course. Here we propose an alternative method to identify flat surfaces and scarps separating them from digital elevation models without setting comparisons with a modern river course and thus fully applicable to study flat landforms whatever their origin. Its application to the low-relief landscape of the Cenozoic Duero basin has allowed the improvement of previous geomorphological maps and the analysis of fluvial network adjustments in response to a sudden base-level fall after the opening of the Neogene endorheic basin towards the Atlantic Ocean. Reconstructed terrace long-profiles suggest an initial episode of fast vertical incision followed by a period of repeated planation–aggradation–incision with the formation of 14 to 13 unpaired terrace levels. Changes observed in the pattern of terrace profiles are discussed with regard to changes in regional tectonics and base-level variations. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
598.
New evidence of sea‐level lowstands and paleoenvironment during MIS 6 and 4 in the Cantabrian coastal karst: the Cobiheru cave (North Iberia) 下载免费PDF全文
Daniel Ballesteros Laura Rodríguez‐Rodríguez Saúl González‐Lemos Santiago Giralt Diego Jaime Álvarez‐Lao Luna Adrados Montserrat Jiménez‐Sánchez 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(11):1704-1716
The geomorphological evolution of the Cobiheru Cave shows the influence of the non‐carbonate coastal mountain ranges on coastal karst evolution, as well as the temporal distribution of the cold‐adapted fauna sites in the Cantabrian Coast. Geomorphological observation and uranium/thorium (U/Th) dating lead to the construction of an evolution model. The model comprises two episodes of cave deposition occurring at c. 60–70 and 130–150 ka, linked to cold climate conditions, global sea‐level lowstands and the erosion of alluvial fans that covered the karst. Moreover, the comparison between the Cobiheru record and some raised beaches identified in previous studies sets the beginning of the sea‐level lowering in the Cantabrian Sea during the marine isotope stages (MIS) 5–4 transition. Two palaeoenvironments are inferred based on finding Equus ferus and Elona quimperiana. A wet deciduous forest would have developed on the emerged marine terrace of the Cobiheru Cave since at least the Middle Pleistocene, and an open landscape with scarce vegetation would have been present at c. 65 ka. The erosional event identified in the Cobiheru Cave helps to understand the temporal distribution of cold‐adapted mammals located in the Asturias region. The probable sites of cold‐adapted fauna developed in caves and alluvial fans would have disappeared after 65 ka. Therefore, palaeontological and palaeoclimate research based on cold‐adapted mammals suggests the occurrence of an hiatus in the palaeontological record prior to 50 ka. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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