Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jessica Hartman  Kristie Ebi  K. John McConnell  Nathan Chan  John Weyant 《Global Change & Human Health》2002,3(1):42-54

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

The Influence of 3-D Structure on the Propagation of Seismic Waves Away from Earthquakes     

B. L. N. Kennett  T. Furumura 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(9):2113-2131

-- The seismic records from significant earthquakes are profoundly affected by 3-D variations in crustal structure both in the source zone itself and in propagation to some distance. Even in structurally complex zones such as Japan and Mexico relatively coherent arrivals are found associated with different classes of propagation paths. The presence of strong lateral variations can disrupt the arrivals, and impose significant variations in propagation characteristics for different directions from the source as illustrated by observations for the 1995 Kobe and 2000 Tottori-ken Seibu earthquakes in western Japan. Such effects can be modelled in 3 dimensions using a hybrid scheme with a pseudospectral representation for horizontal coordinates and finite differences in depth. This arrangement improves parallel implementation by minimising communication costs. For a realistic 3-D model for the structure in western Japan the 3-D simulations to frequencies close to 1 Hz provide a good representation of the observations from subduction zones events such as the 1946 Nankai earthquake and the 2000 Tottori-ken Seibu earthquake. The model can therefore be used to investigate the pattern of ground motion expected for future events e.g., in current seismic gaps.  相似文献   

Studying Thermal Eutrophication in Cooling Reservoirs of Nuclear Power Plants     

Beznosov  V. N.  Kuchkina  M. A.  Suzdaleva  A. L. 《Water Resources》2002,29(5):561-566

The processes of thermal eutrophication of the cooling reservoirs of the Smolensk and Kursk nuclear power plants (NPP) were studied. Data characterizing changes in the concentrations of inorganic forms of nitrogen and phosphates in water during its heating in the NPP cooling system were obtained. Different aspects of the effect of heated water on the production–destruction processes are discussed. The conditions under which the intensity of thermal eutrophication can substantially increase were determined.  相似文献   

The assessment of surface-wave magnitudes in Greece revisited     

N. Ambraseys 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(4):579-581

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Comet Ikeya-Zhang rises for the NAM     

David Asher  Mark Bailey  Apostolos Christou  John McFarland  Mark Muir  Paul Rafferty 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2002,43(2):2.19-2.21

A possible naked-eye comet that may have been important in early cometary theory is announced by D J Asher , M E Bailey , A Christou , J McFarland , M F Muir and P P Rafferty .
Early indications sugest that Comet C/2002 (Ikeya-Zhang), discovered on 1 February 2002, may brighten to naked-eye visibility in late March 2002. It has also been suggested that it may be identical to one of the brighter comets of the 16th or 17th centuries, namely C/1532 R1 or C/1661 C1. The first of these, observed for more than 100 days towards the end of 1532, played an important role in the development of cometary theory. The second, although identified by Halley as having an orbit similar to that of the comet C/1532 R1, was not seen on its predicted return in 1788/1789 and so was presumably unrelated. Here we present long-term orbital integrations of C/2002 C1 which suggest that it orginated from the Oort cloud, and will be ejected again, within ˜0.3 Myr. There is a chance of 10–20% that it will end its life by falling into the Sun during a Halley-type phase of cometary evolution. The discovery of Ikeya-Zhang so closeto perigee by two amateur astonomers highlights the need for surveys covering both hemispheres to discover long-period and intermediate-period comets on Earth-crossing orbits.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Subsurface Structure at Soultz Hot Dry Rock Site by the AE Reflection Method in Time-frequency Domain     

N. Soma  H. Niitsuma  R. Baria 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(1-3):543-562

—?Because the Soultz Hot Dry Rock (HDR) site, France, is to be expanded to a scientific pilot plant of greater depth, measurement of the deep area below the predeveloped artificial reservoir is gaining importance. In this paper, we present estimates of deep subsurface structure at the Soultz HDR site, obtained by a reflection method using acoustic emission (AE) signals, that is, induced seismicity, as the wave source. First, we briefly describe the AE reflection method in the time-frequency domain with wavelet transform. Then we show estimates of the subsurface structure by using 101 high-energy AE events observed in 1993. We compare and discuss the results obtained, using the AE reflection method in two wells with other independent borehole observations. Furthermore, we present the results of an investigation of the frequency dependence of reflectors identified by hodogram linearity as a possible means of further characterizing detected structures.  相似文献   

Microseismicity Induced by Heavy Rainfall Around Flooded Vertical Ore Veins     

H. Ogasawara  K. Fujimori  N. Koizumi  N. Hirano  S. Fujiwara  S. Otsuka  S. Nakao  K. Nishigami  K. Taniguchi  Y. Iio  R. Nishida  K. Oike  Y. Tanaka 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(1-3):91-109

—?Microseismicity (M?M?M?M??6 were also monitored at a crustal movement monitoring station located several hundred meters from the veins. It was found that the opening of the vertical ore veins primary led to significant strain and tilt, but not to seismicity, because the delay and the longer duration of the seismicity were significant. Most seismic events involve thrusting mechanisms that are consistent with the present stress state of E-W-oriented tectonic compression, but are not consistent with the opening of the deepest ore vein. Interstingly, all the events within a few months of the heavy rainfall occurred near the faults that offset the deepest ore veins, wheareas all those events located away from the deepest ore veins occurred many months after the heavy rainfall. Consequently, the delayed diffusion of water appears to have played a dominant role in reducing rock strength, which led to seismicity in the Ikuno mine.  相似文献   

Causes of Geochemical Diversity of Carbon Dioxide Water in Crystalline Rock Masses     

Krainov  S. R.  Ryzhenko  B. N. 《Water Resources》2002,29(1):21-32

The problem of the diversity of the geochemical types of carbon dioxide waters (CDW) in petrografically and mineralogically uniform crystalline rock masses is solved with allowance made for the effect of different boundary conditions (physicochemical parameters) on the geochemical effect of interaction in the rock–water system. The formation of the entire geochemical spectrum of CDW in crystalline rock masses is shown to be explicable on the basis of a model of interaction in granite–water systems at different mass ratios of reacting rock (S) and water (L), different temperatures T, and equilibrium concentrations of dissolved CO₂ (P _CO2).  相似文献   

Use of Structural Characteristics of Bacterio- and Zoobenthos for Assessing the Quality of Bottom Deposits: Case Study of Water Bodies in the Upper Volga Basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vinogradov  G. A.  Berezina  N. A.  Lapteva  N. A.  Zharikov  G. P. 《Water Resources》2002,29(3):299-305

Analysis is given of the modern approaches and methods used to assess the quality of bottom deposits based on the conditions of bacterio- and zoobenthos communities. The structural characteristics of bacterio- and zoobenthos communities of small rivers in the Upper Volga basin are studied. The type of substrate is shown to have appreciable effect on the quantitative characteristics of both the communities. The analysis of these data is used to create a generalized classification of the quality of bottom deposits and assess the extent of their pollution in the examined water bodies.  相似文献   

Reduction of the Trophic Status of a Water Body with the Use of Large-Size Zooplankton     

Gerasimova  T. N.  Pogozhev  P. I. 《Water Resources》2002,29(4):412-421

It is shown that large-size zooplankton can be used as a natural filter in flow-through plants for reducing the trophic status of water bodies and improve water transparency. Experiments in Chistye Prudy pond in the period of blue-green algae blooming show large-size zooplankton to reduce phytoplankton biomass in the pond throughout the period of phytoplankton growth. Daphnia magna specimens (with a biomass of 92 to 3450 mg/l) in lothic ecosystems are found to reduce the biomass of dominating Anabaena spirodes blue-green algae when this biomass attains its maximum.  相似文献