A comparative study of disc–planet interaction     

M. de Val-Borro  R. G. Edgar  P. Artymowicz  P. Ciecielag  P. Cresswell  G. D'Angelo  E. J. Delgado-Donate  G. Dirksen  S. Fromang  A. Gawryszczak  H. Klahr  W. Kley  W. Lyra  F. Masset  G. Mellema  R. P. Nelson  S.-J. Paardekooper  A. Peplinski  A. Pierens  T. Plewa  K. Rice  C. Schäfer  R. Speith 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,370(2):529-558

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Dynamical Evolution of Planets in Disks     

W. Kley 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2003,87(1-2):85-97

We study the evolution of a system consisting of two protoplanets still embedded in a protoplanetary disk. Results of two different numerical approaches are presented. In the first kind of model the motion of the disk material is followed by fully viscous hydrodynamical simulations, and the planetary motion is determined by N-body calculations including exactly the gravitational potential from the disk material. In the second kind we only solve the N-body part and add additional analytically given forces which model the effect of the torques of the disk. This type of modeling is of course orders of magnitudes faster than the full hydro-model. Another advantage of this two-fold approach is the possibility of adjusting the otherwise unknown parameters of the simplified model.The results give very good agreement between the methods. Using two different initial setups for the planets and disk, we obtain in the first case a resonant trapping into the 3:1 resonance, and in the second case a trapping into the 2:1 resonance. Resonant capture leads to a rise in the eccentricity and to an alignment of the spatial orientation of orbits. The characteristics of the numerical results agree very favorably with those of three observed planetary systems (GJ 876, HD 82943, and 55 Cnc) known to be in mean motion resonances.  相似文献   

The expectation of future precipitation change over the Mediterranean region is different from what we observe     

Armineh Barkhordarian  Hans von Storch  Jonas Bhend 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):225-244

In this study we assess the role of anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS) in recently observed precipitation trends over the Mediterranean region. We investigate whether the observed precipitation trends (1966–2005 and 1979–2008) are consistent with what 22 models project as response of precipitation to GS forcing. Significance is estimated using 9,000-year control runs derived from the CMIP3 archive. The results indicate that externally forced changes are detectable in observed precipitation trends in winter, late summer and in autumn. Natural internal climate variability cannot explain these changes. However, the observed trends (derived from 3 sources) are markedly inconsistent with expected changes due to GS forcing. While the influence of GS signal is detectable in winter and early spring, observed changes are several times larger than the projected response to GS forcing. The most striking inconsistency, however, is the contradiction between projected drying and the observed increase in precipitation in late summer and autumn, irrespective of the data set used. Natural (internal) variability as estimated from the models cannot account for these inconsistencies, which are already present in the large scale circulation patterns (Geopotential height at 500 hPa). The obtained results are robust to the removal of the fingerprint of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The detection of an outright sign mismatch of observed and projected trends in autumn and late summer, leads us to conclude that the recently observed trends can not be used as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the Mediterranean region. These significant shortcomings in our understanding of recent observed changes complicate communication of future expected changes in Mediterranean precipitation.  相似文献   

Allogenic and autogenic processes combined in the formation of shallow-water carbonate sequences (Middle Berriasian,Swiss and French Jura Mountains)     

Jonas Tresch  André Strasser 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2011,104(2):299-322

Sediment production and accumulation on shallow carbonate platforms are controlled by allogenic, externally controlled processes (such as sea level, climate, and/or platform-wide subsidence patterns) as well as by autogenic factors that are inherent to the sedimentary system (such as lateral migration of sediment bodies). The challenge is to determine how and in which proportion these processes interacted to create the observed sedimentary record. Here, a case study of Middle Berriasian, shallow-marine carbonates of the Swiss and French Jura Mountains is presented. Based on vertical facies evolution and bedding surfaces, different orders of depositional sequences (elementary, small-scale, medium-scale) have been identified in the studied sections. The hierarchical stacking pattern of these sequences and the time span represented by the investigated interval imply that eustatic sea-level fluctuations in the Milankovitch frequency band were an important controlling factor. The small-scale and medium-scale sequences relate to the 100 and 400-kyr orbital eccentricity cycles, respectively. The elementary sequences are attributed to the 20-kyr precession cycle. Differential subsidence additionally produced accommodation changes. The present study focuses on one specific small-scale sequence situated at the base of the transgressive systems tract of large-scale sequence Be4, which is identified also in other European basins. This small-scale sequence has been logged in detail at eight different outcrops in the Jura Mountains. Detailed facies analysis reveals that different depositional environments (tidal flats, internal lagoons, open lagoons, carbonate sand shoals) were juxtaposed and evolved through time, often shifting position on the platform. The boundaries of the small-scale (100-kyr) sequence can be followed over the entire study area and thus must have formed through predominantly allogenic processes (eustatic sea-level fall, the effect of which was locally modified by differential subsidence). In two sections, five well-developed elementary sequences constitute the small-scale sequence. In the other sections, the identification of elementary sequences often is difficult because sedimentation was dominated by autogenic processes that overruled the influence of sea-level fluctuations. In low-energy, tidal-flat and internal-lagoonal settings, orbitally induced sea-level changes were recorded more faithfully, while high-energy shoals were mainly submitted to autogenic processes and the allogenic signal is masked. Consequently, the studied Jura platform experienced a combination of auto- and allogenic processes, which created a complex facies mosaic and a complex stacking of depositional sequences. Nevertheless, the 100-kyr orbital signal was strong enough to create correlatable sequence boundaries. Within a 100-kyr sequence, however, the unambiguous definition of sequences related to the 20-kyr orbital cycle is often difficult and the prediction of their lateral or vertical facies evolution impossible.  相似文献   

Uncertainty,cost-effectiveness and environmental safety of robust carbon trading: integrated approach     

T. Ermolieva  Y. Ermoliev  M. Jonas  M. Obersteiner  F. Wagner  W. Winiwarter 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):633-646

Carbon markets, like other commodity markets, are volatile. They react to stochastic “disequilibrium” spot prices, which may be affected by inadequate policies, speculations and bubbles. The market-based emission trading, therefore, does not necessarily minimize abatement costs and achieve emission reduction goals. We introduce a basic stochastic model integrating emissions reduction, monitoring and trading costs allowing us to analyze the robustness of emission and uncertainty reduction policies under environmental safety constraints asymmetric information and other multiple anthropogenic and natural uncertainties. Explicit treatment of uncertainties provides incentives for reducing them before trading. We illustrate functioning of the robust market with numerical results involving such countries as the US, Australia, Canada, Japan, EU27, Russia, Ukraine. In particular, we analyze if the knowledge about uncertainties may affect portfolios of technological and trade policies or structure of the market and how uncertainty characteristics may affect market prices and change the market structure.  相似文献   

Evaluation of pan-Arctic melt-freeze onset in CMIP5 climate models and reanalyses using surface observations     

Jonas Mortin  Rune G. Graversen  Gunilla Svensson 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(7-8):2239-2257

The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are fundamental features of the Arctic climate system. The representation of the pan-Arctic melt and freeze onset (north of 60°N) is assessed in two reanalyses and eleven CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs). The seasonal melt-freeze transitions are retrieved from surface air temperature (SAT) across the land and sea-ice domains and evaluated against surface observations. While monthly averages of SAT are reasonably well represented in models, large model-observation and model–model disparities of timing of melt and freeze onset are evident. The evaluation against surface observations reveals that the ERA-Interim reanalysis performs the best, closely followed by some of the climate models. GCMs and reanalyses capture the seasonal melt-freeze transitions better in the central Arctic than in the marginal seas and across the land areas. The GCMs project that during the 21st century, the summer length—the period between melt and freeze onset—will increase over land by about 1 month at all latitudes, and over sea ice by 1 and 3 months at low and high latitudes, respectively. This larger summer-length increase over sea ice at progressively higher latitudes is related to a retreat of summer sea ice during the 21st century, since open water freezes roughly 40 days later than ice-covered ocean. As a consequence, by the year 2100, the freeze onset is projected to be initiated within roughly 10 days across the whole Arctic Ocean, whereas this transition varies by about 80 days today.  相似文献   

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach for relating anthropogenic impact and environmental stress: a case study within the African Albertine Rift     

M.A. Jonas  J.C. Kostelnick 《国际地球制图》2013,28(8):707-732

This study introduces a potentially cost-effective methodology to assess habitat quality remotely using anthropogenic variables derived from both Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. We related anthropogenic impact to organism-level response across the Albertine Rift of East-Africa, which was measured using body condition (BC) in Lophuromys aquilus, the dark-coloured brush-furred rat. We chose seven variables to measure anthropogenic impact, ranging from land cover/land use to nighttime light radiance. Using a principal component analysis, we extracted four components that describe human impact and correlated each with BC. We documented that BC tended to be higher in more disturbed areas. We recommend this GIS-based methodology to relate anthropogenic impact to organismal-level response in the Albertine Rift region, and we provide broad guidelines for its application to assess habitat quality for species of conservation concern.  相似文献   

Effect of fluid pressure distribution on the structural evolution of accretionary wedges          下载免费PDF全文

Jonas B. Ruh 《地学学报》2017,29(3):202-210

Numerical experiments on evolving accretionary wedges usually implement predefined weak basal décollements and constant strength parameters for overlying compressed sequences, although fluid pressure ratio, and therefore brittle strength, can vary strongly in sedimentary basins. A two‐dimensional finite difference model with a visco‐elasto‐plastic rheology is used to investigate the influence of different simplified fluid pressure ratio distributions on the structural evolution of accretionary wedge systems. Results show that a linear increase in fluid pressure ratio towards the base leads to toeward‐verging thrust sheets and underplating of strata, while simulations with a predefined décollement form conjugate shear zones supporting box‐fold‐type frontal accretion. Surface tapers are in agreement with the critical wedge theory, which here is modified for cases of varying fluid pressure ratio. Furthermore, the numerical results resemble findings from natural examples of accretionary wedges.  相似文献   

A model of diffuse Galactic radio emission from 10 MHz to 100 GHz     

Angélica de Oliveira-Costa  Max Tegmark  B. M. Gaensler  Justin Jonas  T. L. Landecker  Patricia Reich 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,388(1):247-260

Understanding diffuse Galactic radio emission is interesting both in its own right and for minimizing foreground contamination of cosmological measurements. cosmic microwave background experiments have focused on frequencies ≳10 GHz, whereas 21-cm tomography of the high-redshift universe will mainly focus on ≲0.2 GHz, for which less is currently known about Galactic emission. Motivated by this, we present a global sky model derived from all publicly available total power large-area radio surveys, digitized with optical character recognition when necessary and compiled into a uniform format, as well as the new Villa Elisa data extending the 1.42-GHz map to the entire sky. We quantify statistical and systematic uncertainties in these surveys by comparing them with various global multifrequency model fits. We find that a principal component based model with only three components can fit the 11 most accurate data sets (at 10, 22, 45 and 408 MHz and 1.42, 2.326, 23, 33, 41, 61, 94 GHz) to an accuracy around 1–10 per cent depending on frequency and sky region. Both our data compilation and our software returning a predicted all-sky map at any frequency from 10 MHz to 100 GHz are publicly available at http://space.mit.edu/home/angelica/gsm .  相似文献   

A Variable Mesh Spacing for Large-Eddy Simulation Models in the Convective Boundary Layer     

Gervásio Annes Degrazia  Umberto Rizza  Franciano Scremin Puhales  Antônio Gledson Goulart  Jonas Carvalho  Guilherme Sausen Welter  Edson Pereira Marques Filho 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,131(2):277-292

A variable vertical mesh spacing for large-eddy simulation (LES) models in a convective boundary layer (CBL) is proposed. The argument is based on the fact that in the vertical direction the turbulence near the surface in a CBL is inhomogeneous and therefore the subfilter-scale effects depend on the relative location between the spectral peak of the vertical velocity and the filter cut-off wavelength. From the physical point of view, this lack of homogeneity makes the vertical mesh spacing the principal length scale and, as a consequence, the LES filter cut-off wavenumber is expressed in terms of this characteristic length scale. Assuming that the inertial subrange initial frequency is equal to the LES filter cut-off frequency and employing fitting expressions that describe the observed convective turbulent energy one-dimensional spectra, it is feasible to derive a relation to calculate the variable vertical mesh spacing. The incorporation of this variable vertical grid within a LES model shows that both the mean quantities (and their gradients) and the turbulent statistics quantities are well described near to the ground level, where the LES predictions are known to be a challenging task.  相似文献