Robust intensification of hydroclimatic intensity over East Asia from multi-model ensemble regional projections     

Im  Eun-Soon  Choi  Yeon-Woo  Ahn  Joong-Bae 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(3-4):1241-1254

This study assesses the hydroclimatic response to global warming over East Asia from multi-model ensemble regional projections. Four different regional climate models (RCMs), namely, WRF, HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, and GRIMs, are used for dynamical downscaling of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Atmosphere and Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual mean precipitation, hydroclimatic intensity index (HY-INT), and wet and dry extreme indices are analyzed to identify the robust behavior of hydroclimatic change in response to enhanced emission scenarios using high-resolution (12.5 km) and long-term (1981–2100) daily precipitation. Ensemble projections exhibit increased hydroclimatic intensity across the entire domain and under both the RCP scenarios. However, a geographical pattern with predominantly intensified HY-INT does not fully emerge in the mean precipitation change because HY-INT is tied to the changes in the precipitation characteristics rather than to those in the precipitation amount. All projections show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation, which lead to a possible shift in hydroclimatic regime prone to an increase of both wet and dry extremes. In general, projections forced by the RCP8.5 scenario tend to produce a much stronger response than do those by the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the temperature increase under the RCP4.5 scenario is sufficiently large to induce significant changes in hydroclimatic intensity, despite the relatively uncertain change in mean precipitation. Likewise, the forced responses of HY-INT and the two extreme indices are more robust than that of mean precipitation, in terms of the statistical significance and model agreement.

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Future changes in summer precipitation in regional climate simulations over the Korean Peninsula forced by multi-RCP scenarios of HadGEM2-AO     

Dong-Hyun Cha  Dong-Kyou Lee  Chun-Sil Jin  Gayoung Kim  Yonghan Choi  Myoung-Seok Suh  Joong-Bae Ahn  Song-You Hong  Seung-Ki Min  Seong-Chan Park  Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):139-149

In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula (KP) was dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) forced by multi- representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios of HadGEM2-AO, and changes in summer precipitation were investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, the RCM reasonably reproduced long-term climatology of summer precipitation over the KP, and captured the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band. In future projections, all RCP experiments using different RCP radiative forcings (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 runs) simulated an increased summer precipitation over the KP. However, there were some differences in changing rates of summer precipitation among the RCP experiments. Future increases in summer precipitation were affected by future changes in moisture convergence and surface evaporation. Changing ranges in moisture convergences among RCP experiments were significantly larger than those in surface evaporation. This indicates that the uncertainty of changes in summer precipitation is related to the projection of the monsoon circulation, which determines the moisture convergence field through horizontal advection. Changes in the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band were inconsistent among RCP experiments. However, all experiments showed that Changma rain-band was enhanced during late June to early July, but it was weakened after mid-July due to the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. These results indicate that precipitation intensity related to Changma rain-band will be increased, but its duration will be reduced in the future.  相似文献   

Time of emergence of anthropogenic warming signals in the Northeast Asia assessed from multi-regional climate models     

Donghyun Lee  Seung-Ki Min  Changyong Park  Myoung-Seok Suh  Joong-Bae Ahn  Dong-Hyun Cha  Dong-Kyou Lee  Song-You Hong  Seong-Chan Park  Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):129-137

Time of Emergence (ToE) is the time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the background noise of natural climate variability, and can provide useful information for climate change impacts and adaptations. This study examines future ToEs for daily maximum and minimum temperatures over the Northeast Asia using five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations driven by single Global Climate Model (GCM) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. Noise is defined based on the interannual variability during the present-day period (1981-2010) and warming signals in the future years (2021-2100) are compared against the noise in order to identify ToEs. Results show that ToEs of annual mean temperatures occur between 2030s and 2040s in RCMs, which essentially follow those of the driving GCM. This represents the dominant influence of GCM boundary forcing on RCM results in this region. ToEs of seasonal temperatures exhibit larger ranges from 2030s to 2090s. The seasonality of ToE is found to be determined majorly by noise amplitudes. The earliest ToE appears in autumn when the noise is smallest while the latest ToE occurs in winter when the noise is largest. The RCP4.5 scenario exhibits later emergence years than the RCP8.5 scenario by 5-35 years. The significant delay in ToEs by taking the lower emission scenario provides an important implication for climate change mitigation. Daily minimum temperatures tend to have earlier emergence than daily maximum temperature but with low confidence. It is also found that noise thresholds can strongly affect ToE years, i.e. larger noise threshold induces later emergence, indicating the importance of noise estimation in the ToE assessment.  相似文献   

Evaluating the impacts of fine-scale capillary heterogeneity and wettability on the behavior of buoyancy-driven CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> migration and trapping mechanisms     

Sung Soo Park  Tae Hong Kim  Moon Sik Jeong  Kun Sang Lee 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(7):550

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Global parameter estimation of the Cochlodinium polykrikoides model using bioassay data     

CHO Hong-Yeon  PARK Kwang-Soon  KIM Sung 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(2):39-45

Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide(a.k.a algal bloom) model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.  相似文献   

Tsunami research in Korea     

Choi  Byung-Ho  Cho  Yong-Sik  Yoon  Sung Bum 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(2):437-454

The tsunamis that have occurred in many places around the world over the past decades have taken a heavy toll on human lives and property. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is not safe from tsunamis and has sustained tsunami damage in the past. The aim of this study is to review the past, present, and future of some aspects of tsunami research in Korea. A composite numerical model comprising propagation and inundation models is described. The paper also covers tsunami mitigation efforts in Korea, and a tsunami hazard map is developed and introduced.  相似文献   

Modeling the underwater light field fluctuations in coastal oceanic waters: Validation with experimental data     

Balasubramanian Sundarabalan  Palanisamy Shanmugam  Yu-Hwan Ahn 《Ocean Science Journal》2016,51(1):67-86

Modeling of the wave-induced underwater light fluctuations at near-surface depths in coastal oceanic waters is challenging because of the surface roughness and strong anisotropic effects of the light field. In the present work, a simple and computationally efficient radiative transfer model is used for the wind-driven sea surface for simulating underwater light fields such as downwelling irradiance (E_d), upwelling irradiance (E_u), and upwelling radiance (L_u) in a spatial domain. It is an extension of our previous work that essentially combines the air–sea interface of the wind-driven sea surface with transmittance and reflectance along with the diffuse and direct components of the homogenous and inhomogeneous water column. The present model simulates underwater light fields for any possible values of absorption and backscattering coefficients. To assess the performance of the model, the E_d, E_u, and L_u profiles predicted by the model are compared with experimental data from relatively clear and turbid coastal waters. Statistical results show significantly low mean relative differences regardless of the wavelength. Comparison of the simulated and in-situ time series data measured over rough sea surfaces demonstrates that model-observation agreement is good for the present model. The Hydrolight model when implemented with the modified bottom reflectance and phase function provides significantly better results than the original Hydrolight model without consideration of the bottom slope and vertically varying phase function. However, these results are non-spatial and have errors fluctuating at different wavelengths. To further demonstrate the efficiency of the present model, spatial distribution patterns of the underwater light fields are simulated based on the measured data from a coastal station for different solar zenith angles (under sunny condition). Simulated wave-induced fluctuations of the underwater lights fields show a good consistency with in-situ data for a few near-surface depths. The present model also provides a reasonable approximation for simulating wave-induced effects on the downward irradiance field and its anisotropic conditions caused by the surface roughness, wavelength and angle of incidence.  相似文献   

The variation of solar proton energy spectra and size distribution with heliolongitude   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. A. I. Van Hollebeke  L. S. Ma Sung  F. B. McDonald 《Solar physics》1975,41(1):189-223

A statistical study of the initial phases of 185 solar particle events has been carried out using the data from the Goddard cosmic ray experiments on IMPs IV and V. Special emphasis is placed on the identification of the associated solar flare. The parent flare can be determined for 68 % of the events. It appears probable that most of the unidentified increases occur on the non-visible disc of the Sun. The existence of a preferred-connection longitude between 20°W and 80° W is established by examining the heliolongitude of all the flare associated events. While power law in differential kinetic energy appears to give the best representation it cannot be distinguished from exponential in rigidity over the limited range of 20–80 MeV. It is argued that for heliolongitudes = 20–80°W, _p ,the spectral index determined at the time of maximum particle intensity is representative of the source spectra. For these heliolongitudes _p displays a surprisingly small range with magnitudes varying mainly between 2.0 and 3.1. At lower energies _p is smaller. Previous electron measurements provide almost identical average values of the source spectra over similar energy ranges. These results are discussed briefly in terms of Fermi acceleration models.For flare events located further away from the nominal field line connecting the Earth and the Sun, _p becomes progressively steeper. The lower energies (4–20 MeV) do not exhibit this behavior. It is argued that this spectral steepening at the higher energies is the result of energy-dependent escape during the coronal diffusion process. The size distribution can be represented by a power law of the form dN/dI=I ^- where N is the number of events per unit intensity and I is the maximum particle intensity at a given energy (usually taken at 40 MeV) with 1.15 ±0.1. The same value of a applies to both eastern and western hemisphere events. The event size, on the average, appears to decrease approximately two orders of magnitude for each 60° away from the preferred connection region.Also: Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, Md., U.S.A.  相似文献   

Genomic cloning and expression of vitellogenin gene from the self-fertilizing fish Rivulus marmoratus (Cyprinodontiformes, Rivulidae)     

Kim IC  Chang SY  Williams TD  Ja Kim Y  Yoon YD  Lee YS  Park EH  Lee JS 《Marine environmental research》2004,58(2-5):687-691

We cloned the vitellogenin gene from the self-fertilizing fish Rivulus marmoratus, and sequenced 12,326 bp. The number of exons of R. marmoratus and rainbow trout vitellogenin genes were different, and also the splicing junctions are different throughout most of the exons and introns but the amino acid similarity of R. marmoratus vitellogenin gene to other species was rather high. In promoter region of R. marmoratus vitellogenin gene, there were several E2 binding sites and the estrogen response element (ERE). We discuss here the gene structure and expression of R. marmoratus vitellogenin gene.  相似文献   

Internal generation of waves on an arc in a rectangular grid system     

Changhoon Lee  Sung Bum Yoon 《Coastal Engineering》2007

This paper presents a technique to generate waves at oblique angles in finite difference numerical models in a rectangular grid system by using internal generation technique [Lee, C., Suh, K.D., 1998. Internal generation of waves for time-dependent mild-slope equations. Coast. Eng. 34, 35–57.] along an arc-shaped line source. Tests were made for four different types of wave generation layouts. Quantitative experiments were conducted under the following conditions: the propagation of waves on a flat bottom, the refraction and shoaling of waves on a planar slope, and the diffraction of waves to a semi-infinite breakwater. Numerical experiments were conducted using the extended mild-slope equations of Suh et al. [Suh, K.D., Lee, C., Park, W.S., 1997. Time-dependent equations for wave propagation on rapidly varying topography. Coast. Eng. 32, 91–117.]. The fourth layout type consisting of two parallel lines connected to a semicircle showed the best solutions, especially for a small grid size. This technique is useful for the numerical simulation of irregular waves with broad-banded directional spectrum using conventional spectral wave models for the reasonable estimation of bottom friction and wave-breaking.  相似文献