A stochastic recovery model of influenza pandemic effects on interdependent workforce systems     

Amine El Haimar  Joost R. Santos 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(2):987-1011

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Pollen‐based biome reconstructions for Colombia at 3000, 6000, 9000, 12 000, 15 000 and 18 000 14C yr ago: Late Quaternary tropical vegetation dynamics     

Robert Marchant  Hermann Behling  Juan‐Carlos Berrio  Antoine Cleef  Joost Duivenvoorden  Henry Hooghiemstra  Peter Kuhry  Bert Melief  Elisabeth Schreve‐Brinkman  Bas Van Geel  Thomas Van der Hammen  Guido Van Reenen  Michael Wille 《第四纪科学杂志》2002,17(2):113-129

Colombian biomes are reconstructed at 45 sites from the modern period extending to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The basis for our reconstruction is pollen data assigned to plant functional types and biomes at six 3000‐yr intervals. A reconstruction of modern biomes is used to check the treatment of the modern pollen data set against a map of potential vegetation. This allows the biomes reconstructed at past periods to be assessed relative to the modern situation. This process also provides a check on the a priori assignment of pollen taxa to plant functional types and biomes. For the majority of the sites, the pollen data accurately reflect the potential vegetation, even though much of the original vegetation has been transformed by agricultural practices. At 18 000 ¹⁴C yr BP, a generally cool and dry environment is reflected in biome, assignments of cold mixed forests, cool evergreen forests and cool grassland–shrub; the latter extending to lower altitudes than presently recorded. This signal is strongly recorded at 15 000 and 12 000 ¹⁴C yr BP, the vegetation at these times also reflecting a relatively cool and dry environment. At 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP there is a shift to biomes thought to result from slightly cooler environmental conditions. This trend is reversed by 6000 ¹⁴C yr BP; most sites, within a range of different environmental settings, recording a shift to more xeric biome types. There is an expansion of steppe and cool mixed‐forest biomes, replacing tropical dry forest and cool grassland–shrub biomes, respectively. These changes in biome assignments from the modern situation can be interpreted as a biotic response to mid‐Holocene climatic aridity. At 3000 ¹⁴C yr BP the shift is mainly to biomes characteristic of slightly more mesic environmental conditions. There are a number of sites that do not change biome assignment relative to the modern reconstruction, although the affinities that these sites have to a specific biome do change. These ‘anomalies’ are interpreted on a site‐by‐site basis. Spatially constant, but differential response of the vegetation to climatic shifts are related to changes in moisture sources and the importance of edaphic controls on the vegetation. The Late Quaternary reconstruction of large‐scale vegetation dynamics in Colombia allows an understanding of the environmental controls on these to be developed. In particular, shifts in the character of the main climatic systems that influence Colombian vegetation are described. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Mid-Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte on oceanic island Mauritius provides a window into the ecosystem of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus)     

Kenneth F. Rijsdijk  Julian P. Hume  Frans Bunnik  F.B. Vincent Florens  Claudia Baider  Beth Shapiro  Johannes van der Plicht  Anwar Janoo  Owen Griffiths  Lars W. van den Hoek Ostende  Holger Cremer  Tamara Vernimmen  Perry G.B. De Louw  Assenjee Bholah  Salem Saumtally  Nicolas Porch  James Haile  Mike Buckley  Matthew Collins  Edmund Gittenberger 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(1-2):14-24

Although the recent history of human colonisation and impact on Mauritius is well documented, virtually no records of the pre-human native ecosystem exist, making it difficult to assess the magnitude of the changes brought about by human settlement. Here, we describe a 4000-year-old fossil bed at Mare aux Songes (MAS) in south-eastern Mauritius that contains both macrofossils (vertebrate fauna, gastropods, insects and flora) and microfossils (diatoms, pollen, spores and phytoliths). With >250 bone fragments/m² and comprising 50% of all known extinct and extant vertebrate species (n_s = 44) of Mauritius, MAS may constitute the first Holocene vertebrate bone Concentration-Lagerstätte identified on an oceanic volcanic island. Fossil remains are dominated by extinct giant tortoises Cylindraspis spp. (63%), passerines (～10%), small bats (7.8%) and dodo Raphus cucullatus (7.1%). Twelve radiocarbon ages [four of them duplicates] from bones and other material suggest that accumulation of fossils took place within several centuries. An exceptional combination of abiotic conditions led to preservation of bones, bone collagen, plant tissue and microfossils. Although bone collagen is well preserved, DNA from dodo and other Mauritian vertebrates has proved difficult. Our analysis suggests that from ca 4000 years ago (4 ka), rising sea levels created a freshwater lake at MAS, generating an oasis in an otherwise dry environment which attracted a diverse vertebrate fauna. Subsequent aridification in the south-west Indian Ocean region may have increased carcass accumulation during droughts, contributing to the exceptionally high fossil concentration. The abundance of floral and faunal remains in this Lagerstätte offers a unique opportunity to reconstruct a pre-human ecosystem on an oceanic island, providing a key foundation for assessing the vulnerability of island ecosystems to human impact.  相似文献   

The Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition     

Wim Z. Hoek 《《幕》》2008,31(2):226-229

The Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition is one of the most intensively studied periods in Earth History. The rapid climate and environmental changes that occurred during the transition can be used to test ideas about the functioning of our climate system. The stratigraphy of this period has been thoroughly investigated and, in particular, the recently proposed event stratigraphy for the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition based on the Greenland ice core records serves as a tool for synchronisation of records from the ice, marine and terrestrial environment.  相似文献   

Risk-based input�Coutput analysis of hurricane impacts on interdependent regional workforce systems     

Rehman Akhtar  Joost R. Santos 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(1):391-405

Natural disasters, like hurricanes, can damage properties and critical infrastructure systems, degrade economic productivity, and in extreme situations can cause injuries and mortalities. This paper focuses particularly on workforce disruptions in the aftermath of hurricanes. We extend the dynamic inoperability input?Coutput model (DIIM) by formulating a workforce recovery model to identify critical industry sectors. A decision analysis tool is utilized by integrating the economic loss and inoperability metrics to study the interdependent effects of various hurricane intensities on Virginia??s workforce sectors. The extended DIIM and available workforce survey data are incorporated in the decision support tool to simulate various hurricane scenarios. For a low-intensity hurricane scenario, the simulated total economic loss to Virginia??s industry sectors due to workforce absenteeism is around $410 million. Examples of critical sectors that suffer the highest losses for this scenario include: (1) miscellaneous professional, scientific, and technical services; (2) federal general government; (3) state and local government enterprises; (4) construction; and (5) administrative and support services. This paper also explores the inoperability metric, which describes the proportion in which a sector capacity is disrupted. The inoperability metric reveals a different ranking of critical sectors, such as: (1) social assistance; (2) hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities; (3) educational services; (4) federal government enterprises; and (5) federal general government. Results of the study will help identify the critical workforce sectors and can ultimately provide insights into formulating preparedness decisions to expedite disaster recovery. The model was applied to the state of Virginia but can be generalized to other regions and other disaster scenarios.  相似文献   

Uncertainty modeling of hurricane-based disruptions to interdependent economic and infrastructure systems     

Resurreccion  Joanna Z.  Santos  Joost R. 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(3):1497-1518

Natural Hazards - Extreme risks associated with natural and man-made disasters involve disruptions to the production of goods or provision of services in interdependent systems. The reduced supply...  相似文献   

Formation,Evolution, and Dissipation of Coastal Sea Fog   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Darko?Kora?inEmail author  Joost?A.?Businger  Clive?E.?Dorman  John?M.?Lewis 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,117(3):447-478

Evolution of sea fog has been investigated using three-dimensional Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) simulations. The study focused on widespread fog-cloud layers advected along the California coastal waters during 14–16 April 1999. According to analysis of the simulated trajectories, the intensity of air mass modification during this advection significantly depended on whether there were clouds along the trajectories and whether the modification took place over the land or ocean. The air mass, with its trajectory endpoint in the area where the fog was observed and simulated, gradually cooled despite the gradual increase in sea-surface temperature along the trajectory. Modelling results identified cloud-top cooling as a major determinant of marine-layer cooling and turbulence generation along the trajectories. Scale analysis showed that the radiative cooling term in the thermodynamic equation overpowered surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, and entrainment terms in cases of the transformation of marine clouds along the trajectories. Transformation of air masses along the trajectories without clouds and associated cloud-top cooling led to fog-free conditions at the endpoints of the trajectories over the ocean. The final impact on cloud-fog transition was determined by the interaction of synoptic and boundary-layer processes. Dissipation of sea fog was a consequence of a complex interplay between advection, synoptic evolution, and development of local circulations. Movement of the high-pressure system over land induced weakening of the along-shore advection and synoptic-pressure gradients, and allowed development of offshore flows that facilitated fog dissipation.  相似文献   

The dynamics and characteristics of aeolian dust in dryland Central Asia: possible impacts on human exposure and respiratory health in the Aral Sea basin   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Giles F S Wiggs  Sarah L O'hara†  Johannah Wegerdt‡  Joost Van Der Meer§  Ian Small‡  Richard Hubbard¶ 《The Geographical journal》2003,169(2):142-157

The drying up of the Aral Sea has been described as one of the most staggering environmental disasters of the twentieth century. Over the last 40 years over 36 000 km² of the former seabed have been exposed, creating a potentially significant aeolian dust source. It is widely believed, but little researched, that increased dust storm activity in the region has had a major impact on human health. In this paper we report the findings of a study into the link between dust exposure and respiratory health amongst children in the Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan located on the southern shore of the Aral Sea. The findings indicate that dust deposition rates across the region are high, with sites located near the former shore of the sea being the worst affected. For these northerly regions the former bed of the Aral Sea is the most likely source of dust. The situation for the rest of the country appears to be far more complex. In these regions it appears that local sources and more distant sources to the south and south-west represent significant sediment providers, particularly in the early summer. Provisional analysis of the respiratory health data suggests that children living in the north of the country, where aeolian dust deposition rates are greater, show a lower frequency of respiratory problems. This inverse relationship requires further investigation, but highlights the complexities of environmental and human health inter-relationships.  相似文献   

The Global Stratotype Section and Point （GSSP） for the base of the Holocene Series/Epoch （Quaternary System/Period） in the NGRIP ice core   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Mike Walker  ;Sigfus Johnsen  ;Sune Olander Rasmussen  ;Jorgen-Peder Steffensen  ;Trevor Popp  ;Philip Gibbard  ;Wim Hoek  ;John Lowe  ;John Andrews  ;Svante Bjorck  ;Les Cwynar  ;Konrad Hughen  ;Peter Kershaw  ;Bernd Kromer  ;Thomas Litt  ;David J. Lowe  ;Takeshi Nakagawa  ;Rewi Newnham  ;Jakob Schwander 《《幕》》2008,31(2):264-267

The Greenland ice core from NorthGRIP （NGRIP） contains a proxy climate record across the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary of unprecedented clarity and resolution. Analysis of an array of physical and chemical parameters within the ice enables the base of the Holocene, as reflected in the first signs of climatic warming at the end of the Younger Dryas/Greenland Stadial 1 cold phase, to be located with a high degree of precision.  相似文献   

Environmental destruction as a counterinsurgency strategy in the Kurdistan region of Turkey     

Jacob van Etten  Joost Jongerden  Hugo J. de Vos  Annemarie Klaasse  Esther C.E. van Hoeve 《Geoforum》2008,39(5):1786-1797

We examine environmental aspects of the conflict between the Turkish state and the insurgent Kurdistan Workers Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan or PKK). Since the early 1990s, several civil society groups have claimed that the Turkish army burned forests and destroyed other livelihood resources in the Kurdistan region of Turkey as it evacuated settlements. We report the results of a case study of destruction in Tunceli, eastern Turkey, undertaken in order to evaluate support for such claims. We demonstrate the use of geospatial techniques in case-specific approaches to the study of armed conflict. Through the analysis of satellite images, we verified eyewitness reports and confirmed that substantial burnings did indeed take place in the study area between 1991 and 1994. We argue that this destruction was not irrational or wanton, but that it was part of a strategy used by the Turkish army in the early 1990s that aimed at actively transforming the war environment.  相似文献