Some remarks on the analysis of short tidal records     

H. Lasta King  Mark A. Scott  Tim J. Smith 《Ocean Dynamics》1983,36(2):45-59

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Disruption of Routine Behaviors Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill     

Vanessa Parks  Leah Drakeford  Michael R. Cope  Tim Slack 《社会与自然资源》2018,31(3):277-290

This paper frames the unfolding impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill as a process of lifeway disruption, analyzing the degree to which residents of spill affected communities were prevented from undertaking routine behaviors during the disaster. Special attention is paid to the influence of time, natural resource employment, and community sentiment. Drawing on data from the Louisiana Community Oil Spill Survey, the results show that people in the spill impacted region were prevented from engaging in routine behaviors, though this disruption has steadily decreased over time, suggesting a general trend toward recovery. Consistent with the renewable resource community concept, the results also show that those with ties to the fishing industry were more likely to be prevented from undertaking routine behaviors than were nonfishers. Finally, community sentiment is shown to ameliorate routine behavior disruption, thus, promoting resilience. Overall, these results challenge notions of monolithic paths to disaster recovery.  相似文献   

The intraseasonal oscillations of precipitation and circulations from January to March in 2010 in East Asia     

Suxiang Yao  Qian Huang  Tim Li  Chunying Zhang 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2014,123(1-2):67-79

The rainfall from January to March in 2010 in East Asia is positive anomaly and the temporal evolution characteristics present the cycle of 20–40 days. In the present paper, the low-frequency circulations and its formation mechanism are analyzed. The results show that during the peak rainfall phase, the upstream of the rainfall regions is controlled by low-frequency cyclone, and the downstream is controlled by low-frequency anticyclone in the middle and low troposphere. In the upper troposphere, the westerly jet presents the oscillation characteristics between the north and the south. Both the integrated (from the surface to 100 hPa) diabatic heating and the horizontal vorticity advection contribute to the vertical velocity. In addition, the vorticity vertical advection has effects on the vertical speed, which is a self-feedback process. The latent heating in the precipitation has influences on the westerly jet in the upper troposphere. The interactions between the precipitation and the westerly jet are mainly manifested as the intraseasonal oscillations.  相似文献   

Effect of Baroclinicity on Vortex Axisymmetrization. Part Ⅰ:Barotropic Basic Vortex     

Melinda S.PENG  Jiayi PENG  Tim LI  Eric HENDRICKS 《大气科学进展》2014,31(6)

The barotropic and baroclinic disturbances axisymmetrized by the barotropic basic vortex are examined in an idealized modeling framework consisting of two layers. Using a Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach, the radial propagation of a baroclinic disturbance is shown to be slower than a barotropic disturbance, resulting in a slower linear axisymmetrization for baroclinic disturbances. The slower-propagating baroclinic waves also cause more baroclinic asymmetric kinetic energy to be transferred directly to the barotropic symmetric vortex than from barotropic disturbances, resulting in a faster axisymmetrization process in the nonlinear baroclinic wave case than in the nonlinear barotropic wave case.  相似文献   

Winners and Losers in Marine Conservation: Fishers' Displacement and Livelihood Benefits from Marine Reserves     

Joshua E. Cinner  Tim Daw  Cindy Huchery  Pascal Thoya  Andrew Wamukota  Maria Cedras 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(9):994-1005

Marine reserves can create both benefits and costs to fishers. This article explores the perceptions of fishers in Kenya and Seychelles about displacement, spillover, and overall impacts of local marine reserves on their livelihoods. We test whether these perceptions are different among fishers from different geographic and socioeconomic conditions. Sixty-six percent of fishers had been displaced from marine reserves or coastal development and 90% believed they had caught fishes that spilled over from marine reserves. Poorer fishers in Kenya were both displaced from, and also felt like they benefited from, marine reserves. This highlights how people's experiences with marine reserves, both positive and negative, are affected by a range of social considerations that may not be incorporated in typical evaluations of ecological and economic marine reserve success.  相似文献   

Anomalous passive subsidence of deep‐water sedimentary basins: a prearc basin example,southern New Caledonia Trough and Taranaki Basin,New Zealand     

Jan Baur  Rupert Sutherland  Tim Stern 《Basin Research》2014,26(2):242-268

Stratigraphic data from petroleum wells and seismic reflection analysis reveal two distinct episodes of subsidence in the southern New Caledonia Trough and deep‐water Taranaki Basin. Tectonic subsidence of ~2.5 km was related to Cretaceous rift faulting and post‐rift thermal subsidence, and ~1.5 km of anomalous passive tectonic subsidence occurred during Cenozoic time. Pure‐shear stretching by factors of up to 2 is estimated for the first phase of subsidence from the exponential decay of post‐rift subsidence. The second subsidence event occured ~40 Ma after rifting ceased, and was not associated with faulting in the upper crust. Eocene subsidence patterns indicate northward tilting of the basin, followed by rapid regional subsidence during the Oligocene and Early Miocene. The resulting basin is 300–500 km wide and over 2000 km long, includes part of Taranaki Basin, and is not easily explained by any classic model of lithosphere deformation or cooling. The spatial scale of the basin, paucity of Cenozoic crustal faulting, and magnitudes of subsidence suggest a regional process that acted from below, probably originating within the upper mantle. This process was likely associated with inception of nearby Australia‐Pacific plate convergence, which ultimately formed the Tonga‐Kermadec subduction zone. Our study demonstrates that shallow‐water environments persisted for longer and their associated sedimentary sequences are hence thicker than would be predicted by any rift basin model that produces such large values of subsidence and an equivalent water depth. We suggest that convective processes within the upper mantle can influence the sedimentary facies distribution and thermal architecture of deep‐water basins, and that not all deep‐water basins are simply the evolved products of the same processes that produce shallow‐water sedimentary basins. This may be particularly true during the inception of subduction zones, and we suggest the term ‘prearc’ basin to describe this tectonic setting.  相似文献   

A Framework for Quantitative Assessment of Impacts Related to Energy and Mineral Resource Development     

Seth S. Haines  Jay E. Diffendorfer  Laurie Balistrieri  Byron Berger  Troy Cook  Don DeAngelis  Holly Doremus  Donald L. Gautier  Tanya Gallegos  Margot Gerritsen  Elisabeth Graffy  Sarah Hawkins  Kathleen M. Johnson  Jordan Macknick  Peter McMahon  Tim Modde  Brenda Pierce  John H. Schuenemeyer  Darius Semmens  Benjamin Simon  Jason Taylor  Katie Walton-Day 《Natural Resources Research》2014,23(1):3-17

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.  相似文献   

Sudden stratospheric warmings and tropospheric blockings in a multi-century simulation of the IPSL-CM5A coupled climate model     

Jessica Vial  Tim J. Osborn  François Lott 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(9-10):2401-2414

The relation between sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and blocking events is analyzed in a multi-centennial pre-industrial simulation of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace coupled model (IPSL-CM5A), prepared for the fifth phase of the coupled model intercomparison project. The IPSL model captures a fairly realistic distribution of both SSWs and tropospheric blocking events, albeit with a tendency to overestimate the frequency of blocking in the western Pacific and underestimate it in the Euro-Atlantic sector. The 1000-year long simulation reveals statistically significant differences in blocking frequency and duration over the 40-day periods preceding and following the onset of SSWs. More specifically, there is an enhanced blocking frequency over Eurasia before SSWs, followed by an westward displacement of blocking anomalies over the Atlantic region as SSWs evolve and then decline. The frequency of blocking is reduced over the western Pacific sector during the life-cycle of SSWs, while the model simulates no significant relationship with eastern Pacific blocks. Finally, these changes in blocking frequency tend to be associated with a shift in the distribution of blocking lifetime toward longer-lasting blocking events before the onset of SSWs and shorter-lived blocks after the warmings. This study systematically verifies that the results are consistent with the two pictures that (1) blockings produce planetary scale anomalies that can force vertically propagating Rossby waves and then SSWs when the waves break and (2) SSWs affect blockings in return, for instance via the effect they have on the North Atlantic Oscillation.  相似文献   

A new paradigm for the predominance of standing Central Pacific Warming after the late 1990s   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

Baoqiang Xiang  Bin Wang  Tim Li 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(2):327-340

Canonical El Niño has a warming center in the eastern Pacific (EP), but in recent decades, El Niño warming center tends to occur more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). The definitions and names of this new type of El Niño, however, have been notoriously diverse, which makes it difficult to understand why the warming center shifts. Here, we show that the new type of El Niño events is characterized by: 1) the maximum warming standing and persisting in the CP and 2) the warming extending to the EP only briefly during its peak phase. For this reason, we refer to it as standing CP warming (CPW). Global warming has been blamed for the westward shift of maximum warming as well as more frequent occurrence of CPW. However, we find that since the late 1990s the standing CPW becomes a dominant mode in the Pacific; meanwhile, the epochal mean trade winds have strengthened and the equatorial thermocline slope has increased, contrary to the global warming-induced weakening trades and flattening thermocline. We propose that the recent predominance of standing CPW arises from a dramatic decadal change characterized by a grand La Niña-like background pattern and strong divergence in the CP atmospheric boundary layer. After the late 1990s, the anomalous mean CP wind divergence tends to weaken the anomalous convection and shift it westward from the underlying SST warming due to the suppressed low-level convergence feedback. This leads to a westward shift of anomalous westerly response and thus a zonally in-phase SST tendency, preventing eastward propagation of the SST anomaly. We anticipate more CPW events will occur in the coming decade provided the grand La Niña-like background state persists.  相似文献   

Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Linus Magnusson  Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda  Susanna Corti  Franco Molteni  Tim Stockdale 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2393-2409

This study discusses and compares three different strategies used to deal with model error in seasonal and decadal forecasts. The strategies discussed are the so-called full initialisation, anomaly initialisation and flux correction. In the full initialisation the coupled model is initialised to a state close to the real-world attractor and after initialisation the model drifts towards its own attractor, giving rise to model bias. The anomaly initialisation aims to initialise the model close to its own attractor, by initialising only the anomalies. The flux correction strategy aims to keep the model trajectory close to the real-world attractor by adding empirical corrections. These three strategies have been implemented in the ECMWF coupled model, and are evaluated at seasonal and decadal time-scales. The practical implications of the different strategies are also discussed. Results show that full initialisation results in a clear model drift towards a colder climate. The anomaly initialisation is able to reduce the drift, by initialising around the model mean state. However, the erroneous model mean state results in degraded seasonal forecast skill. The best results on the seasonal time-scale are obtained using momentum-flux correction, mainly because it avoids the positive feedback responsible for a strong cold bias in the tropical Pacific. It is likely that these results are model dependent: the coupled model used here shows a strong cold bias in the Central Pacific, resulting from a positive coupled feedback between winds and SST. At decadal time-scales it is difficult to determine whether any of the strategies is superior to the others.  相似文献