Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world     

Marjolijn Haasnoot  Jan H. Kwakkel  Warren E. Walker  Judith ter Maat 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):485-498

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach.  相似文献   

Seismic stratigraphy, buried beach ridges and contourite drifts: the Late Quaternary history of the closed Lago Cardiel basin, Argentina (49°S)     

Adrian Gilli  Flavio S. Anselmetti  Daniel Ariztegui†  Milan Beres†  Judith A. McKenzie  Vera Markgraf‡ 《Sedimentology》2005,52(1):1-23

The results of a seismic stratigraphic analysis of a closed lake basin, Lago Cardiel, in southernmost South America are reported. Very few high-resolution, continental records spanning the Late Quaternary have been obtained from this region. Seismic sequence stratigraphic analysis allows a reconstruction of lake level variations. Two major hiatuses of unknown age occurred during the early evolution of the basin with the deposition of an alluvial fan in a restricted area in the intervening time period. Following the development of a relatively shallow lake during the late Pleistocene and a short desiccation pulse around 11 220 ¹⁴C yr BP, a transgression of over 135 m occurred at the beginning of the Holocene. The transgression was associated with the formation of beach ridges preserved in the lake stratigraphy on the floor of the modern Lago Cardiel at four different elevations. The preservation of largely unreworked beach ridges indicates a stepwise rise in the lake level. There is no seismic evidence of a major lowering of the lake below modern level during the entire Holocene. Deposition since the mid-Holocene is marked by strong lateral differences in sediment accumulation with a depocentre slightly to the north of the basin midpoint and a pronounced mounded distribution. Seismic reflection geometries, as well as sedimentological characteristics indicate a lacustrine contourite drift covering an area of 80–100 km². As Lago Cardiel is under the influence of westerly winds, these most likely drove lake circulation. The identification of drowned beach ridges and of contourite drifts illustrates that high-resolution seismic stratigraphy is not only a powerful tool in reconstructing past lake level elevations for closed lake basins, but it can also provide information about the rate of lake level changes and the presence and strength of lake currents.  相似文献   

Blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula in coastal Queensland, Australia: disparate sites, common factors     

Albert S  O'Neil JM  Udy JW  Ahern KS  O'Sullivan CM  Dennison WC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(1-4):428-437

During the last decade there has been a significant rise in observations of blooms of the toxic cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the east coast of Queensland, Australia. Whether the increase in cyanobacterial abundance is a biological indicator of widespread water quality degradation or also a function of other environmental change is unknown. A bioassay approach was used to assesses the potential for runoff from various land uses to stimulate productivity of L. majuscula. In Moreton Bay, L. majuscula productivity was significantly (p<0.05) stimulated by soil extracts, which were high in phosphorus, iron and organic carbon. Productivity of L. majuscula from the Great Barrier Reef was also significantly (p<0.05) elevated by iron and phosphorus rich extracts, in this case seabird guano adjacent to the bloom site. Hence, it is possible that other L. majuscula blooms are a result of similar stimulating factors (iron, phosphorus and organic carbon), delivered through different mechanisms.  相似文献   

Drift plastic—An expanding niche for a marine invertebrate?     

Judith E. Winston 《Marine pollution bulletin》1982,13(10):348-351

Beach collection of plastic litter washed ashore at Fort Pierce on the Atlantic coast of Florida showed that, while some of this material may have had a local source, much of the rest originated in the Caribbean. During its pelagic existence the plastic commonly became encrusted by marine organisms. In contrast to the diverse assemblage of organisms associated with pelagic Sargassum, however, the number of species encrusting drift plastic was limited, being dominated primarily by the colonies of the bryozoan, Electra tenella, an organism which may be increasing its abundance and distribution, due to increasing amounts of drift plastic substrata.  相似文献   

Studies of a contaminated brackish marsh in the Hackensack Meadowlands of Northeastern New Jersey: benthic communities and metal contamination     

Weis JS  Skurnick J  Weis P 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,49(11-12):1025-1035

Cores taken from 16 stations within Eight Day Swamp, a highly contaminated marsh in the Hackensack Meadowlands, were analyzed for metal concentrations and for benthic community structure. Metal levels were compared with the benchmark ERM values, and expressed in terms of toxic units. Mercury was the most important metal in all the samples in terms of its contribution to the total toxic units. The overall abundance and taxa richness in the benthic community were associated with the height of the location relative to the tidal cycle, but were generally not significantly correlated with metal concentrations at the sites. Ordination of the communities showed that the communities that were low-lying (on the mudflat) were most similar to one another, and those that were higher up on the marsh were most similar to one another. However, diversity indices (Shannon-Wiener H' and Simpson's) were significantly associated with concentrations of the metals (except As) and with the sum of the toxic units at a station.  相似文献   

Solar radiative output and its variability: evidence and mechanisms   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Claus?Fr?hlichEmail author  Judith?Lean 《Astronomy and Astrophysics Review》2004,12(4):273-320

Electromagnetic radiation from the Sun is Earths primary energy source. Space-based radiometric measurements in the past two decades have begun to establish the nature, magnitude and origins of its variability. An 11-year cycle with peak-to-peak amplitude of order 0.1 % is now well established in recent total solar irradiance observations, as are larger variations of order 0.2 % associated with the Suns 27-day rotation period. The ultraviolet, visible and infrared spectral regions all participate in these variations, with larger changes at shorter wavelengths. Linkages of solar radiative output variations with solar magnetism are clearly identified. Active regions alter the local radiance, and their wavelength-dependent contrasts relative to the quiet Sun control the relative spectrum of irradiance variability. Solar radiative output also responds to sub-surface convection and to eruptive events on the Sun. On the shortest time scales, total irradiance exhibits five minute fluctuations of amplitude %, and can increase to as much as 0.015 % during the very largest solar flares. Unknown is whether multi-decadal changes in solar activity produce longer-term irradiance variations larger than observed thus far in the contemporary epoch. Empirical associations with solar activity proxies suggest reduced total solar irradiance during the anomalously low activity in the seventeenth century Maunder Minimum relative to the present. Uncertainties in understanding the physical relationships between direct magnetic modulation of solar radiative output and heliospheric modulation of cosmogenic proxies preclude definitive historical irradiance estimates, as yet.Received: 26 August 2004, Published online: 16 November 2004 Correspondence to: Claus Fröhlich  相似文献   

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Hye-Mi Kim  Peter J. Webster  Judith A. Curry 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(12):2957-2973

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.  相似文献   

The super-gentrification of Park Slope,Brooklyn     

Judith R. Halasz 《Urban geography》2018,39(9):1366-1390

Studies of classical gentrification typically focus on the embourgeoisement of neighborhoods and displacement of marginalized people. Recently, a new form of gentrification – super-gentrification – has emerged with the expansion of global finance capital, according to urban geographer Loretta Lees. Super-gentrification entails the further upscaling of already gentrified neighborhoods with the in-migration of upper-income residents and displacement of middle class residents, many of whom were among the initial gentrifiers. Despite the attention policy makers, urban planners, and the media are paying to the “middle class squeeze,” few quantitative studies of super-gentrification exist. Using data from the United States Decennial Census, American Community Survey, public residential sales transaction records, and real estate listings, this article sheds light on the landscape of super-gentrification and how to identify it with a quantitative analysis of changes in income, demographics, and housing affordability in the Park Slope neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York since 1970.  相似文献   

Map: Exploring the World. London: New York: Phaidon Press, 2015. $59.95. isbn 978‐0‐7148‐6944‐5.          下载免费PDF全文

Judith A. Tyner 《Geographical review》2018,108(4):625-626

  相似文献   

GIS in the K-12 Curriculum: A Cautionary Note   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Judith W. Meyer  Jon Butterick  Michael Olkin  George Zack 《The Professional geographer》1999,51(4):571-578

Two qualitative case studies, one focusing on K-12 teachers and the other on middle school students, explore key factors associated with using Geographic Information Systems in the classroom. In both studies, access to appropriate hardware is a critical barrier. Time is another critical barrier—time to learn the GIS software and time in the curriculum to incorporate GIS as a learning experience. In both case studies, learning the technology at the expense of learning spatial analysis was a danger, suggesting the need for conscious focus on the goal of using GIS to learn how to “do geography.”  相似文献