Modelling the Northern Hemisphere temperature for solar cycles 24 and 25     

Blanca Mendoza  Víctor Manuel Mendoza  René Garduño  Julián Adem 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(14-15):1122-1128

It is uncertain whether the solar cycle 24 will have a high or a low sunspot maximum number. In its last revision the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel indicates that the low prediction is the most likely. Also, solar cycle 25 is considered to present an equal or lower activity than cycle 24. In order to assess the possible effect of the solar activity on temperature, in the present work we attempt to model the tendency of the Northern Hemisphere temperature for the years 2009–2029, corresponding to solar cycles 24 and 25, using a thermodynamic climate model. We include as forcings the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and the solar activity by means of the total solar irradiance, considering that the latter has not only a direct effect on climate, but also an indirect one through the modulation of the low cloud cover. We use two IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios, one with a high fossil consumption and other with a low use of fossil sources. Also we consider higher and lower solar activity conditions. We found that in all the performed experiments the inclusion of the solar activity produces a noticeable reduction in warming respect to the IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios. Such reduction goes between ～14% and ～44%. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the TCM, we use the root mean square (RMS) between the observed and model temperatures for the period 1980–2003. We find that the RMS for the experiment using the CO₂ as the only forcing is 0.06 °C,while for the experiment that includes also the solar activity it is higher, 0.13 °C.  相似文献   

南天山榆树沟遭受麻粒岩相变质改造的蛇绿岩套研究   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

王润三  王居里  周鼎武  王焰  刘养杰 《地质科学》1999,(2):166

 新疆南天山榆树沟高压麻粒岩地体的原岩是一层序基本完整的蛇绿岩套。该岩套主要由变质橄榄岩、超镁铁质-镁铁质堆晶岩、下部洋脊拉斑玄武岩、以及上部洋脊拉斑玄武岩等四个岩石单元构成。其岩石学和REE与相对惰性微量元素的地球化学特征表明,该蛇绿岩中的玄武岩属洋脊型;结合区域地质背景分析,初步认为榆树沟蛇绿岩可能形成于具相当规模的洋盆构造环境。锆石U-Pb年龄表明其形成时代为早古生代中晚期,证实西南天山早古生代蛇绿岩确已延伸至库米什一带。榆树沟麻粒岩相蛇绿岩套的确定以及对其独特的形成和俯冲-折返过程进行深入研究,不仅对进一步探讨天山构造带的形成和演化有重要意义,而且对发展大陆动力学理论也具重要参考价值。  相似文献   

南天山榆树沟遭受麻粒岩相变质改造的蛇绿岩套研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

王润三  王居里 《地质科学》1999,34(2):166-176

新疆南天山榆树沟高压麻粒岩地体的原岩是一层序基本完整的蛇绿岩套。该岩套主要由变质橄榄岩、超镁铁质-镁铁质堆晶岩、下部洋脊拉斑玄武岩、以及上部洋脊拉斑玄武岩等四个岩石单元构成。其岩石学和REE与相对惰性微量元素的地球化学特征表明,该蛇绿岩中的玄武岩属洋脊型;结合区域地质背景分析,初步认为榆树沟蛇绿岩可能形成于具相当规模的洋盆构造环境。锆石U-Pb年龄表明其形成时代为早古生代中晚期,证实西南天山早古生代蛇绿岩确已延伸至库米什一带。榆树沟麻粒岩相蛇绿岩套的确定以及对其独特的形成和俯冲-折返过程进行深入研究,不仅对进一步探讨天山构造带的形成和演化有重要意义,而且对发展大陆动力学理论也具重要参考价值。  相似文献   

Is delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase activity in bivalves from south-west Iberian Peninsula a good biomarker of lead exposure?     

Kalman J  Riba I  Blasco J  DelValls TA 《Marine environmental research》2008,66(1):38-40

The coast of Huelva is considered as a heavily contaminated area where the Tinto and Odiel rivers discharge after running through a metalliferous mining area in the Iberian Pyrite Belt and end in common estuary called Ría of Huelva. Lead is a highly toxic and widely distributed element in the aquatic environment; therefore there is a great interest in assessing the impact of this contaminant on aquatic organisms. To study the bioavailability and sources of lead, the bivalve species Chamelea gallina was collected from six sampling sites along the coast of Huelva. Besides the effect of this metal on the enzyme activity, delta-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALA-D) was determined in the whole tissue. Results show the inverse relationship between the lead concentration and the activity of ALA-D measured in whole tissues (r2=0.7). Individuals collected from the Ría of Huelva estuary had the highest levels of total lead concentrations and the lowest activity of ALA-D. Lead isotope analyses demonstrated the different sources of lead contamination and also confirmed the influence of Ría of Huelva on the metal input to the marine environment.  相似文献   

红海湾表层沉积物铅、锌污染的判断与分析     

甘居利  贾晓平  林钦 《广东海洋大学学报》2000,20(2):20-23

以镍作自然参比元素 ,用元素相关图法分析了南海东北部红海湾表层沉积物中铅、锌含量的分布和污染状况。结果表明 :红海湾已经受到人为来源的铅、锌影响 ,但其影响的范围和强度目前尚小 ,仅在湾顶河口浅水区有轻微污染 ,湾中部养殖区、南部自然水域和湾口礁滩护养增殖区尚未受到人为来源的铅、锌影响。元素相关图提供了有关污染区域、污染点、污染物和污染强度等的总信息  相似文献   

考洲洋海水营养盐分布及其与浮游植物的关系     

甘居利  林钦  李纯厚  黄洪辉  贾晓平 《广东海洋大学学报》2002,22(6):32-37

根据 1998年的现场调查资料 ,分析考洲洋海水无机营养盐与浮游植物生物量的平面分布及其相互关系。结果表明二者的关系很密切 :浮游植物量在枯水期 (2月 )与无机氮、无机磷、硅酸盐显著正相关 ,相关系数分别为 0 779、0 94 6和 0 876 (n =12 ) ;在丰水期 (8月 )与无机氮和硅酸盐负相关、与磷酸盐正相关 ,相关系数分别为 - 0 6 5 5、- 0 84 5和 0 5 84 (n =11)。从浮游植物对营养盐的一般需要量和N、P、Si的原子比分析 ,2月N、P显得紧缺 ,8月N、P、Si均过量  相似文献   

European regional efficiency and geographical externalities: a spatial nonparametric frontier analysis     

Julián Ramajo  José Manuel Cordero  Miguel Ángel Márquez 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2017,19(4):319-348

This paper analyses region-level technical efficiency in nine European countries over the 1995–2007 period. We propose the application of a nonparametric conditional frontier approach to account for the presence of heterogeneous conditions in the form of geographical externalities. Such environmental factors are beyond the control of regional authorities, but may affect the production function. Therefore, they need to be considered in the frontier estimation. Specifically, a spatial autoregressive term is included as an external conditioning factor in a robust order-m model. Thus we can test the hypothesis of non-separability (the external factor impacts both the input–output space and the distribution of efficiencies), demonstrating the existence of significant global interregional spillovers into the production process. Our findings show that geographical externalities affect both the frontier level and the probability of being more or less efficient. Specifically, the results support the fact that the spatial lag variable has an inverted U-shaped non-linear impact on the performance of regions. This finding can be interpreted as a differential effect of interregional spillovers depending on the size of the neighboring economies: positive externalities for small values, possibly related to agglomeration economies, and negative externalities for high values, indicating the possibility of production congestion. Additionally, evidence of the existence of a strong geographic pattern of European regional efficiency is reported and the levels of technical efficiency are acknowledged to have converged during the period under analysis.  相似文献   

On the seasonal effect of orbital variations on the climates of the next 4000 years     

Julián Adem 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,14(11):1198-1206

A northern hemisphere thermodynamic climate model is used to compute the effect of the insolation anomalies due to orbital variations in the climates for the next 4000 years. Bergers mean monthly anomalies of insolation are used in the computations, which are carried out for 1000, 2000, 3000 and 4000 years after present (kyears AP). The numerical simulations show that in the climates of the next 4000 years, due to the effect of the orbital variations, springs and summers will be increasingly dryer and falls and winters wetter than the present climate.  相似文献   

Asymmetric distribution of convection in tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific Ocean     

Lu Yang  Jianfang Fei  Xiaogang Huang  Xiaoping Cheng  Xiangrong Yang  Juli Ding  Wenli Shi 《大气科学进展》2016,33(11):1306-1321

Forecasts of the intensity and quantitative precipitation of tropical cyclones(TCs) are generally inaccurate, because the strength and structure of a TC show a complicated spatiotemporal pattern and are affected by various factors. Among these, asymmetric convection plays an important role. This study investigates the asymmetric distribution of convection in TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2005–2012, based on data obtained from the Feng Yun 2(FY2)geostationary satellite. The asymmetric distributions of the incidence, intensity and morphology of convections are analyzed.Results show that the PDFs of the convection occurrence curve to the azimuth are sinusoidal. The rear-left quadrant relative to TC motion shows the highest occurrence rate of convection, while the front-right quadrant has the lowest. In terms of intensity, weak convections are favored in the front-left of a TC at large distances, whereas strong convections are more likely to appear to the rear-right of a TC within a 300 km range. More than 70% of all MCSs examined here are elongated systems, and meso-β enlongated convective systems(MβECSs) are the most dominant type observed in the outer region of a TC. Smaller MCSs tend to be more concentrated near the center of a TC. While semi-circular MCSs [MβCCSs, MCCs(mesoscale convective complexes)] show a high incidence rate to the rear of a TC, elongated MCSs [MβECSs, PECSs(persistent elongated convective systems)] are more likely to appear in the rear-right quadrant of a TC within a range of 400 km.  相似文献   

Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jorge M. Gaspar-Escribano  Belén Benito  Julián García-Mayordomo 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(2):179-196

Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil conditions. Hazard deaggregation shows that the largest hazard contributions are due to small, local events for short-period target motions and to moderate, more distant events for long-period target motions. For each target motion and site considered, the associated specific response spectra (SRS) are obtained. It is shown that the combination of two SRS, for short- and long-period ground motions respectively, provides a good approximation to the UHS at each site. The UHS are compared to design response spectra contained in current Spanish and European seismic codes for the 475-year return period. For the three sites analysed, only the Eurocode 8 (EC8) type 2 spectrum captures the basic shape of the UHS (and not the EC8 type 1, as could be expected a priori). An alternative response spectrum, anchored at short- and long-period accelerations, is tested, providing a close match to the UHS spectra at the three sites. Results underline the important contribution of the frequent, low-to-moderate earthquakes that characterize the seismicity of this area to seismic hazard (at the 475-year return period).  相似文献