The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model     

Helen Crowley  Julian J. Bommer  Rui Pinho  Juliet Bird 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(14):1653-1685

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seasonal records of climatic change in annually laminated tufas: short review and future prospects   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

J. E. Andrews  A. T. Brasier 《第四纪科学杂志》2005,20(5):411-421

Many Recent and fossil freshwater tufa stromatolites contain millimetre‐scale, alternating laminae of dense micrite and more porous or sparry crystalline calcites. These alternating laminae have been interpreted to represent seasonally controlled differences in the biotic activity of microbes, and/or seasonally controlled changes in the rate of calcification. Either way, couplets of these microbially mediated alternating calcified laminae are generally agreed to represent annual seasonality. Combined stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) and trace element (Mg, Sr, Ba) geochemistry from Recent tufa stromatolites show that seasonal climatic information is available from these calcites. Variability in δ¹⁸O (and in one case Mg concentration) has been shown to be controlled primarily by stream temperature change, usually driven by solar insolation. In arid climates, seasonal evaporation can also cause δ¹⁸O enrichment by at least 1‰. Variability in δ¹³C results potentially from: (1) seasonal change in plant uptake of ¹²C‐enriched CO₂; (2) seasonal change in degassing of ¹²C‐enriched CO₂ in the aquifer system; and (3) precipitation of calcite along the aquifer or river flow path, a process that increases δ¹³C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the remaining water. Mechanisms 2 and 3 are linked because calcite precipitates in aquifers where degassing occurs, e.g. air pockets. The latter mechanism for δ¹³C enrichment has also been shown to cause sympathetic variation between trace element/Ca ratios and δ¹³C because trace elements with partition coefficients much greater than 1 (e.g. Sr, Ba) remain preferentially in solution. Since degassing in air pockets will be enhanced during decreased recharge when water saturation of the aquifer is lowest, sympathetic variation in trace element/Ca ratios and δ¹³C is a possible index of recharge and therefore precipitation intensity. High‐resolution geochemical data from well‐dated tufa stromatolites have great potential for Quaternary palaeoclimate reconstructions, possibly allowing recovery of annual seasonal climatic information including water temperature variation and change in rainfall intensity. However, careful consideration of diagenetic effects, particularly aggrading neomorphism, needs to be the next step. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sustainability schizophrenia or “actually existing sustainabilities?” toward a broader understanding of the politics and promise of local sustainability in the US     

Rob Krueger  Julian Agyeman 《Geoforum》2005,36(4):410-417

As an approach to development, many see capitalism as reaching across an enormous range of scholarly domains and political interests. For some time geographers and others have begun to conceptualize capitalism as less of a system of intrinsic economic logic and more a collection of social and discursive relationships. By bringing capitalism into the “discursive world” these commentators and others have provided the theoretical ground for an exploration of alternative economic forms, especially those that are more socially and ecologically just. This paper makes an argument for putting sustainable development through the same theoretical scrutiny. Drawing on examples from the US we recruit the concept of “actually existing sustainabilities” from Altvater’s concept “actually existing socialisms” as an entry point to this conversation. Our purpose is to show that the potential for sustainability in the US exists in current local policies and practices if we rethink how we frame it.  相似文献   

Merged dust climatology in Phoenix,Arizona based on satellite and station data     

Hang Lei  Julian X. L. Wang  Daniel Q. Tong  Pius Lee 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(9-10):2785-2799

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Direct and Indirect Effects of Estuarine Reclamation on Nutrient and Metal Fluxes in the Global Coastal Zone   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

T. D. Jickells  J. E. Andrews  D. J. Parkes 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2016,22(4):337-348

We demonstrate that land reclamation in estuaries is resulting in very large-scale loss of intertidal area and disconnection of stored sediment with the water column. This process is not just causing loss of estuarine ecosystem services, it is also having a major deleterious impact on the ability of estuaries to retain nutrients and trace metals. The global scale of loss of estuarine wetlands and subtidal sediments has reached the point where the impact of this loss of estuarine retention is likely to be affecting coastal seas worldwide and possibly global element cycles.  相似文献   

Variable Nitrification Rates Across Environmental Gradients in Turbid,Nutrient-Rich Estuary Waters of San Francisco Bay     

Julian Damashek  Karen L. Casciotti  Christopher A. Francis 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(4):1050-1071

Understanding rates of nitrogen cycling in estuaries is crucial for understanding their productivity and resilience to eutrophication. Nitrification, the microbial oxidation of ammonia to nitrite and nitrate, links reduced and oxidized forms of inorganic nitrogen and is therefore an important step of the nitrogen cycle. However, rates of nitrification in estuary waters are poorly characterized. In fall and winter of 2011–2012, we measured nitrification rates throughout the water column of all major regions of San Francisco Bay, a large, turbid, nutrient-rich estuary on the west coast of North America. Nitrification rates were highest in regions furthest from the ocean, including many samples with rates higher than those typically measured in the sea. In bottom waters, nitrification rates were commonly at least twice the magnitude of surface rates. Strong positive correlations were found between nitrification and both suspended particulate matter and ammonium concentration. Our results are consistent with previous studies documenting high nitrification rates in brackish, turbid regions of other estuaries, many of which also showed correlations with suspended sediment and ammonium concentrations. Overall, nitrification in estuary waters appears to play a significant role in the estuarine nitrogen cycle, though the maximum rate of nitrification can differ dramatically between estuaries.  相似文献   

Optimizing Ore–Waste Dig-Limits as Part of Operational Mine Planning Through Genetic Algorithms     

Julian Ramirez Ruiseco  Jacob Williams  Mustafa Kumral 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(4):473-485

Dig-limit optimization is an operational decision making problem that significantly affects the value of open-pit mining operations. Traditionally, dig-limits have been drawn by hand and can be defined as classifying practical ore and waste boundaries suiting equipment sizes in a bench. In this paper, an optimization approach based on a genetic algorithm (GA) was developed to approximate optimal dig-limits on a bench, given grade control data, equipment constraints, processing, and mining costs. A case study was conducted on a sample disseminated nickel bench, in a two destination and single ore-type deposit. The results from using the GA are compared to hand-drawn results. The study shows that GA-based approach can be effectively used for dig-limit optimization.  相似文献   

Rupture of the Indian slab in the 2011 Mw 6.9 Sikkim Himalaya earthquake and its tectonic implications     

T. C. Sunilkumar  Anil Earnest  K. Silp  Ronia Andrews 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(Z1):58-58

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Crystal nucleation and growth produced by continuous decompression of Pinatubo magma     

Kenneth?S.?BefusEmail author  Benjamin?J.?Andrews 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2018,173(11):92

High-temperature decompression experiments demonstrate that crystal textures preserve a record of the style and rate of magmatic ascent. To reinforce this link, we performed a suite of isothermal decompression experiments using starting material from the climactic 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We decompressed experiments from 220 MPa to final, quench pressures of 75 or 30 MPa using continuous decompression rates of 100, 30, 10, 3, 1, and 0.3 MPa h^?1. Amphibole, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase crystallized during the experiments, with plagioclase microlites dominating the assemblage. Total microlite number densities range from 10^7.6±0.4 up to 10^8.2±0.2 cm^?3, with plagioclase accounting for up to 65% of the total number. Plagioclase microlite area increased systematically from 19?±?8 to 937?±?487 µm² with increasing experiment duration. Our textures provide time-integrated records of crystal kinetics. Average nucleation and areal growth rates of plagioclase are highest in the fastest decompressions (~?10^7.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 10.1?±?4.1 µm² h^?1, respectively) and more than an order of magnitude lower in the slowest experiments (~?10^5.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 0.8?±?0.2 µm² h^?1, respectively). Both nucleation and growth rates are highest at high degrees of disequilibrium. We find that peak supersaturation-dependent instantaneous rates are generally more than an order of magnitude faster than average rates. We use those instantaneous nucleation and growth rates to introduce an iterative model to evaluate the effects of different decompression rates, decompression paths (continuous, single-step or multistep), and the presence of phenocrysts on final crystallinity and microlite size distribution.  相似文献   

Deep-water sediment transport patterns and basin floor topography in early rift basins: Plio-Pleistocene syn-rift of the Corinth Rift,Greece     

Martin Muravchik  Gijs A. Henstra  Gauti T. Eliassen  Rob L. Gawthorpe  Mike Leeder  Haralambos Kranis  Emmanuel Skourtsos  Julian Andrews 《Basin Research》2020,32(5):1184-1212

Our current understanding on sedimentary deep-water environments is mainly built of information obtained from tectonic settings such as passive margins and foreland basins. More observations from extensional settings are particularly needed in order to better constrain the role of active tectonics in controlling sediment pathways, depositional style and stratigraphic stacking patterns. This study focuses on the evolution of a Plio-Pleistocene deep-water sedimentary system (Rethi-Dendro Formation) and its relation to structural activity in the Amphithea fault block in the Corinth Rift, Greece. The Corinth Rift is an active extensional basin in the early stages of rift evolution, providing perfect opportunities for the study of early deep-water syn-rift deposits that are usually eroded from the rift shoulders due to erosion in mature basins like the Red Sea, North Sea and the Atlantic rifted margin. The depocentre is located at the exit of a structurally controlled sediment fairway, approximately 15 km from its main sediment source and 12 km basinwards from the basin margin coastline. Fieldwork, augmented by digital outcrop techniques (LiDAR and photogrammetry) and clast-count compositional analysis allowed identification of 16 stratigraphic units that are grouped into six types of depositional elements: A—mudstone-dominated sheets, B—conglomerate-dominated lobes, C—conglomerate channel belts and sandstone sheets, D—sandstone channel belts, E—sandstone-dominated broad shallow lobes, F—sandstone-dominated sheets with broad shallow channels. The formation represents an axial system sourced by a hinterland-fed Mavro delta, with minor contributions from a transverse system of conglomerate-dominated lobes sourced from intrabasinal highs. The results of clast compositional analysis enable precise attribution for the different sediment sources to the deep-water system and their link to other stratigraphic units in the area. Structures in the Amphithea fault block played a major role in controlling the location and orientation of sedimentary systems by modifying basin-floor gradients due to a combination of hangingwall tilt, displacement of faults internal to the depocentre and folding on top of blind growing faults. Fault activity also promoted large-scale subaqueous landslides and eventual uplift of the whole fault block.  相似文献