Attribution of long-term changes in peak river flows in Great Britain     

Aoibheann Brady  Julian Faraway  Ilaria Prosdocimi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1159-1170

ABSTRACT

We investigate the evidence for changes in the magnitude of peak river flows in Great Britain. We focus on a set of 117 near-natural “benchmark” catchments to detect trends not driven by land use and other human impacts, and aim to attribute trends in peak river flows to some climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) index. We propose modelling all stations together in a Bayesian multilevel framework to be better able to detect any signal that is present in the data by pooling information across several stations. This approach leads to the detection of a clear countrywide time trend. Additionally, in a univariate approach, both the EA and NAO indices appear to have a considerable association with peak river flows. When a multivariate approach is taken to unmask the collinearity between climate indices and time, the association between NAO and peak flows disappears, while the association with EA remains clear. This demonstrates the usefulness of a multivariate and multilevel approach when it comes to accurately attributing trends in peak river flows.  相似文献   

Characterization and assessment of the devastating natural hazards across the Canadian Prairie Provinces from 2009 to 2011     

Julian Brimelow  Ronald Stewart  John Hanesiak  Bohdan Kochtubajda  Kit Szeto  Barrie Bonsal 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):761-785

From 2009 to 2011, the Canadian Prairies were subjected to exceptionally variable precipitation regimes, ranging between record drought and unprecedented flooding. Adjacent regions concurrently experienced droughts and floods, and individual areas transitioned rapidly from pluvial to drought conditions and vice versa. Such events had major impacts; for example, damages from floods in the Assiniboine River Basin (ARB) have exceeded $1 billion, and forest fires ravaged the town of Slave Lake, Alberta. This study first characterizes, and then assesses, these devastating natural hazards in terms of their physical processes (across multiple spatial and temporal scales) related to both the spatially contrasting precipitation states and rapid temporal transitions between these states. Subtle differences in large-scale atmospheric flow had marked impacts on precipitation. Primary factors controlling the distribution and amount of precipitation included the location and persistence of key surface and upper-air features, as well as their interaction. Additionally, multiple events—rather than individual extremes—were responsible for the flooding over the Saskatchewan River Basin and the ARB. Very heavy rainfall events (≥25 mm d^?1) accounted for up to 55 % of warm season rain at some locations, and the frequency of heavy rainfall events was critical for determining whether a region experienced drought or pluvial conditions. This study has increased our knowledge of the characteristics, impacts and mechanisms of rapidly transitioning disparate precipitation states on the Canadian Prairies and will aid in better understanding both past and projected future hydro-climatic extremes in the region.  相似文献   

Trace and minor elements in sphalerite from metamorphosed sulphide deposits   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Julian A. Lockington  Nigel J. Cook  Cristiana L. Ciobanu 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,108(6):873-890

Sphalerite is a common sulphide and is the dominant ore mineral in Zn-Pb sulphide deposits. Precise determination of minor and trace element concentrations in sulphides, including sphalerite, by Laser-Ablation Inductively-Coupled-Plasma Mass-Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is a potentially valuable petrogenetic tool. In this study, LA-ICP-MS is used to analyse 19 sphalerite samples from metamorphosed, sphalerite-bearing volcanic-associated and sedimentary exhalative massive sulphide deposits in Norway and Australia. The distributions of Mn, Fe, Co, Cu, Ga, Se, Ag, Cd, In, Sn, Sb, Hg, Tl, Pb and Bi are addressed with emphasis on how concentrations of these elements vary with metamorphic grade of the deposit and the extent of sulphide recrystallization. Results show that the concentrations of a group of trace elements which are believed to be present in sphalerite as micro- to nano-scale inclusions (Pb, Bi, and to some degree Cu and Ag) diminish with increasing metamorphic grade. This is interpreted as due to release of these elements during sphalerite recrystallization and subsequent remobilization to form discrete minerals elsewhere. The concentrations of lattice-bound elements (Mn, Fe, Cd, In and Hg) show no correlation with metamorphic grade. Primary metal sources, physico-chemical conditions during initial deposition, and element partitioning between sphalerite and co-existing sulphides are dominant in defining the concentrations of these elements and they appear to be readily re-incorporated into recrystallized sphalerite, offering potential insights into ore genesis. Given that sphalerite accommodates a variety of trace elements that can be precisely determined by contemporary microanalytical techniques, the mineral has considerable potential as a geothermometer, providing that element partitioning between sphalerite and coexisting minerals (galena, chalcopyrite etc.) can be quantified in samples for which the crystallization temperature can be independently constrained.  相似文献   

Subglacially precipitated carbonates record geochemical interactions and pollen preservation at the base of the Laurentide Ice Sheet on central Baffin Island,eastern Canadian Arctic     

Kurt A. Refsnider  Gifford H. Miller  Marilyn L. Fogel  Bianca Fréchette  Roxane Bowden  John T. Andrews  G. Lang Farmer 《Quaternary Research》2014

The mineralogy and isotopic compositions of subglacially precipitated carbonate crusts (SPCCs) provide information on conditions and processes beneath former glaciers and ice sheets. Here we describe SPCCs formed on gneissic bedrock at the bed of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the last glacial maximum on central Baffin Island. Geochemical data indicate that the Ca in the crusts was likely derived from the subglacial chemical weathering Ca-bearing minerals in the local bedrock. C and Sr isotopic analyses reveal that the C in the calcite was derived predominantly from older plant debris. The δ¹⁸O values of the SPCCs suggest that these crusts formed in isotopic equilibrium with basal ice LIS preserved in the Barnes Ice Cap (BIC). Columnar crystal fabric and the predominance of sparite over micrite in the SPCCs are indicative of carbonate precipitation under open-system conditions. However, the mean δ¹⁸O value of the calcite crusts is ~ 10‰ higher than those of primary LIS ice preserved in the BIC, demonstrating that SPCCs record the isotopic composition of only basal ice. Palynomorph assemblages preserved within the calcite and basal BIC ice include species last endemic to the Arctic in the early Tertiary. The source of these palynomorphs remains enigmatic.  相似文献   

The effects of spatial targeting of fishing effort on the distribution of the Norway lobster,Nephrops norvegicus,on the Farn Deeps grounds,northeast England     

Michael C. Bell  Jon M. Elson  Julian T Addison 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(5):1023-1037

Nephrops norvegicus is an essentially sedentary species of lobster that forms the basis of valuable fisheries in the northwest Atlantic and western Mediterranean. Fishers exploiting a sedentary stock are likely to visit the most profitable (highest catch rate) areas first. Such spatial targeting of fishing effort is likely to have important consequences for stock monitoring and assessment. We used underwater television surveys of Nephrops burrow densities on the Farn Deeps grounds, northeast England, to describe changes in abundance and distribution between the beginning and end of a winter fishing season. Above a threshold of c. 0.6 burrows m^–2, overwinter depletion increased with burrow density, consistent with fishing effort being targeted at the highest densities. A simple simulation model showed that this pattern of mortality is an expected consequence of spatially targeted fishing behaviour. The model also predicted that there is decreased spatial variability in density after fishing. An overall decrease in variability was not evident from the survey data, but geostatistical analysis indicated that there was “flattening” of the density profile along a north‐south axis, consistent with the dominant direction of commercial trawling. We concluded that Nephrops fishers are able to find and exploit the highest densities of their target species. A potential consequence is that catch per unit effort (CPUE) data used to monitor trends in this stock potentially could mask declines in stock abundance. CPUE might be more effective if analysed at finer spatial scales, but this is not currently possible. In the absence of these fine scale commercial data, fishery‐independent surveys (e.g., underwater television) are an important source of information on trends in stock abundance.  相似文献   

A first principles study of the distribution of iron in sphalerite   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kate Wright  Julian D. Gale 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(12):3514-3520

Quantum mechanical techniques, based on density functional theory, have been used to study the distribution of iron impurities in sphalerite (ZnS) at compositions ranging from 3.125 to 12.5 mol% FeS. Our results show that iron is most easily incorporated by direct substitution onto the zinc site and that energies for solution reactions involving FeS are exothermic when the system is zinc deficient. Furthermore, there appears to be a small driving force for the formation of bound Fe-Fe pairs at low iron concentrations, though there is no particular preference found for larger clusters of iron. The influence of iron on the sphalerite cell parameter is shown to be sensitive to the presence of Fe-Fe pairs and to the degree of sample non-stoichiometry.  相似文献