Regional precipitation and temperature scenarios for climate change     

ANDRAS BARDOSSY  JAN M. C. VAN MIERLO 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):559-575

Abstract

To investigate the consequences of climate change on the water budget in small catchments, it is necessary to know the change of local precipitation and temperature. General Circulation Models (GCM) cannot provide regional climate parameters yet, because of their coarse resolution and imprecise modelling of precipitation. Therefore downscaling of precipitation and temperature has to be carried out from the GCM grids to a small scale of a few square kilometres. Daily rainfall and temperature are modelled as processes conditioned on atmospheric circulation. Rainfall is linked to the circulation patterns (CPs) using conditional probabilities and conditional rainfall amount distribution. Both temperature and precipitation are downscaled to several locations simultaneously taking into account the CP dependent spatial correlation. Temperature is modelled using a simple autoregressive approach, conditioned on atmospheric circulation and local areal precipitation. The model uses the classification scheme of the German Weather Service and a fuzzy rule-based classification. It was applied in the Aller catchment for validation using observed rainfall and temperature, and observed classified geopotential pressure heights. GCM scenarios of the ECHAM model were used to make climate change predictions (using classified GCM geopotential heights); simulated values agree fairly well with historical data. Results for different GCM scenarios are shown.  相似文献   

Contrasting morphodynamics in alluvial fans and fan deltas: effect of the downstream boundary     

MAURITS VAN DIJK  MAARTEN G. KLEINHANS  GEORGE POSTMA  ERIN KRAAL 《Sedimentology》2012,59(7):2125-2145

Alluvial fans and fan deltas can, in principle, have exactly the same upstream conditions, but fan deltas by definition have ponding water at their downstream boundary. This ponding creates effects on the autogenic behaviour of fan deltas, such as backwater adaptation, mouth bars and backward sedimentation, whereas alluvial fans may lack these effects. Hence the present authors hypothesize that morphodynamics on alluvial fans are determined primarily by upstream boundary conditions, whereas morphodynamics on fan deltas are determined by both the upstream and the downstream boundary condition and changes therein. To isolate the effects of the upstream and downstream boundaries, five new alluvial fan experiments are compared with the details of three fan deltas published earlier that were formed under very similar and simple conditions. Similar to the fan deltas, the alluvial fans build up by sheet flow, whilst quasi‐regular periods of incision cause temporary channelized flow. Incision is followed by channel backfilling, after which the fan returns to sheet flow. The channelization and backfilling in alluvial fans is markedly less pronounced and more prone to autogenic disturbance than in fan deltas. The difference is caused by morphodynamics at the downstream boundary. In a fan delta, the flow expansion of the channel causes deposition of all the sediment, which forms a mouth bar and causes strong backfilling. In an alluvial fan, on the other hand, the slope break at the fan perimeter causes some deposition, but transport is not reduced to zero. Consequently, the backfilling in alluvial fans is less pronounced than in fan deltas. Other published experiments support this trend: removal of the mouth bar by a river leads to permanent channelization, whilst pronounced mouth‐bar formation in highly channelized deltas promotes backward sedimentation. The experimental results for this study predict that, when alluvial fans prograde into lakes or deep rivers, they transition to fan deltas with increasingly deeper channels and thicker backfill deposits.  相似文献   

Spatial variability of watermass conditions within the European Epicontinental Seaway during the Early Jurassic (Pliensbachian–Toarcian)     

DARIO HARAZIM  BAS VAN DE SCHOOTBRUGGE  KATRIN SORICHTER  JENS FIEBIG  ANDRIES WEUG  GUILLAUME SUAN  WOLFGANG OSCHMANN 《Sedimentology》2013,60(2):359-390

In order to constrain spatial variability in watermass conditions within the European Epicontinental Seaway prior to, during and after the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event, carbon (δ¹³C_bel, δ¹³C_carb) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O_bel, δ¹⁸O_carb) isotope records were obtained from three sections in the Grands Causses Basin (southern France). These data were then compared with similar records along a north–south transect across the European Epicontinental Seaway. As the conclusions reached here strongly depend on the reliability of belemnite calcites as archives of palaeoceanographic changes, an attempt was made to improve the understanding of isotope signals recorded in belemnite calcite. Intra‐rostral carbon and oxygen‐isotope data from six belemnite specimens belonging to the genus Passaloteuthis were collected. Intra‐rostral carbon‐isotopes are influenced by vital effects, whereas oxygen‐isotopes reflect relative changes in temperature and salinity. Palaeotemperatures calculated from δ¹⁸O_bel‐isotope records from the Grands Causses Basin confirm relatively low temperatures throughout the Late Pliensbachian. Similar cool water conditions have previously been shown in Germany, England, Spain and Portugal. A temperature increase of up to 6 °C is observed across the Pliensbachian–Toarcian boundary. A pronounced negative shift of at least ?3‰ (Vienna‐Pee Dee Belemnite) is recorded in bulk carbonate carbon during the lower Harpoceras serpentinum zone, typical of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. Before and after the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event, a good correlation between δ¹³C_carb and δ¹³C_bel exists, indicating well‐ventilated bottom‐waters and normal marine conditions. Instead, data for the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event indicate the development of a strong north–south gradient in salinity stratification and surface‐water productivity for the Western Tethyan realm. This study thus lends further support to a pronounced regional overprint on carbon and oxygen‐isotope records in epicontinental seaways.  相似文献   

Greater India Basin Hypothesis and A Two-Stage Cenozoic Collision Between India and Asia     

Douwe VAN HINSBERGEN  Lippert Peter  Dupont-Nivet Guillaume  McQuarrie Nadine  Doubrovine Pavel  Spakman Wim  Torsvik Trond 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(Z1):15-15

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超固结粘土的二元介质模型   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

沈珠江  邓刚 《岩土力学》2003,24(4):495-499

为了分析超固结粘土边坡的变形和稳定的需要,在岩土破损力学的框架内建议了一个适用于这类土的二元介质模型。该模型考虑了土体内在的不均一性,把它看作由结构块和结构带组成的复合体,两者共同分担外荷载,模型包含10参数,并拟定了这些参数的测定方法。通过模拟三轴试验的计算表明,该模型可以反映London粘土的应力-应变特征。  相似文献   

成矿系统分析与新类型矿床预测   总被引：27，自引：3，他引：24  

翟裕生  彭润民  邓军  王建平 《地学前缘》2000,7(1):123-132

新类型矿床的发现常能带来矿产储量的巨量增长 ,是新世纪中保障矿产资源供应的一个重要途径。成矿系统分析对发现新类型矿床有重要意义。 (1)掌握一个区域成矿系统中各矿床类型间相互关系 ,由已知矿床类型找寻未知矿床类型 ,这已在长江中下游成矿带的找矿历史中得到证实。 (2 )认识成矿系统的空间结构 ,主要是垂向分带 ,有助于找寻深部的隐伏矿床类型。 (3)查明成矿系统的时间结构 ,包括成矿过程中矿床类型的迭变关系 ,可由已知矿化链条查找缺失的矿化链条 (矿床类型 ) ,这在岩浆热液成矿系统中常能奏效。 (4 )查明成矿系统中矿床类型多样性的制约因素 ,可据此分析相关区域中发现新类型矿床的潜力。 (5)研究新的成矿环境和新的成矿作用 ,从而发现新的矿床类型。在生物成矿系统、深海成矿系统、低温成矿系统、构造成矿系统及叠加成矿系统中有更大的发现新类型矿床的几率。文中提出近期内可能发现的新的铂族元素矿床类型。笔者还指出今后的找矿目标 ,应是整个成矿系统 ,而不是局限于单个矿床及单个矿床类型 ,这样才可能不失去发现新类型矿床的机会。  相似文献   

MEASURING AND MODELLING OF SOIL WATER DYNAMICS AND RUNOFF GENERATION IN AN AGRICULTURAL LOESSIAL HILLSLOPE     

COEN J. RITSEMA  JANNES STOLTE  KLAAS OOSTINDIE  ERIK VAN DEN ELSEN  PAUL M. VAN DIJK 《水文研究》1996,10(8):1081-1089

Surface runoff may be generated when the rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration capacity, or when the soil profile is saturated with water. Indications exist that both types of overland flow may occur in hilly agricultural loess regions. Here, for a loessial hillslope under maize in the southern part of The Netherlands, it was shown, with pressure head and runoff measurements, that Hortonian overland flow occurs during typical summer rain events. Surface runoff was initiated after saturation of the top 5–10 cm of the soil. Deeper in the soil, unsaturated conditions prevailed while runoff took place. Peak runoff discharges at the outlet of the subcatchment occurred a few minutes after peak rainfall intensities were measured. It appeared that SWMS_2D, a two-dimensional water flow model, was capable in simulating observed pressure head changes and runoff. Simulated potential runoff for the transect studied was higher by a magnitude of three than the measured areal average. This indicates effects of surface ponding, and the probable location of this particular transect in a region with high runoff production.  相似文献   

EMISSION OF N2O FROM AGRICULTURAL SOIL UNDER SNOW COVER : A SIGNIFICANT PART OF N BUDGET     

E. VAN BOCHOVE  H. G. JONES  F. PELLETIER  D. PRVOST 《水文研究》1996,10(11):1545-1549

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阿尔金断裂带对青藏高原北部生长、隆升的制约   总被引：62，自引：3，他引：59  

李海兵  杨经绥  许志琴  孙知明  Paul TAPPONNIER 《地学前缘》2006,13(4):59-79

大量的同位素年代学证据表明(古)阿尔金断裂带可能形成于三叠纪,后又经历了侏罗纪、白垩纪的强烈左旋走滑活动,自印度板块与欧亚大陆碰撞后阿尔金断裂再次活动。主要的走滑活动发生在:(1)245~220Ma;(2)180~140Ma;(3)120~100Ma;(4)90~80Ma;(5)60~45Ma;(6)渐新世至中新世;(7)上新世至更新世以及(8)全新世。沿阿尔金断裂带,伴随左旋走滑活动形成一系列的逆冲断裂和正断裂,反映走滑过程中伴随隆升作用的存在,并且形成自北向南包括祁连山、大雪山、党河南山、柴北缘山、祁漫塔格山和昆仑山,表明阿尔金断裂带制约着青藏高原北部的生长和隆升。阿尔金断裂带东、西两端的白垩纪和新生代火山活动是断裂走滑活动的响应。  相似文献   

Multiproxy diet analysis of the last meal of an early Holocene Yakutian bison          下载免费PDF全文

BAS VAN GEEL  ALBERT PROTOPOPOV  IAN BULL  ELZA DUIJM  FIONA GILL  YOURI LAMMERS  ALINE NIEMAN  NATALIA RUDAYA  SVETLANA TROFIMOVA  ALEXEI N. TIKHONOV  RUTGER VOS  SNEZHANA ZHILICH  BARBARA GRAVENDEEL 《第四纪科学杂志》2014,29(3):261-268

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