Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging     

Nils-Otto Kitterrød  Lars Gottschalk 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):459-482

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.  相似文献   

Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Karen O'Brien  Linda Sygna  Jan Erik Haugen 《Climatic change》2004,64(1-2):193-225

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.  相似文献   

Angular dependence of the switching field and implications for gyromagnetic remanent magnetization in three-axis alternating-field demagnetization     

Karen Nørgaard Madsen 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(3):1007-1016

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On the effect of a low viscosity asthenosphere on the temporal change of the geoid—A challenge for future gravity missions     

Gabriele Marquart  Bernhard Steinberger  Karen Niehuus 《Journal of Geodynamics》2005,39(5):493

New satellite technology to measure changes in the Earth’s gravity field gives new possibilities to detect layers of low viscosity inside the Earth. We used density models for the Earth mantle based on slab history as well as on tomography and fitted the viscosity by comparison of predicted gravity to the new CHAMP gravity model. We first confirm that the fit to the observed geoid is insensitive to the presence of a low viscosity anomaly in the upper mantle as long as the layer is thin ( 200 km) and the viscosity reduction is less than two orders of magnitude. Then we investigated the temporal change in geoid by comparing two stages of slablet sinking based on subduction history or by advection of tomography derived densities and compared the spectra of the geoid change for cases with and without a low viscosity layer, but about equal fit to the observed geoid. The presence of a low viscosity layer causes relaxation at smaller wavelength and thus leads to a spectrum with relatively stronger power in higher modes and a peak around degrees 5 and 6. Comparing the spectra to the expected degree resolution for GRACE data for a 5 years mission duration shows a weak possibility to detect changes in the Earth’s gravity field due to large scale mantle circulation, provided that other causes of geoid changes can be taken into account with sufficient accuracy. A discrimination between the two viscosity cases, however, demands a new generation of gravity field observing satellites.  相似文献   

1998 Eruption at Volcán Cerro Azul, Galápagos Islands: I. Syn-Eruptive Petrogenesis     

Rachel Teasdale  Dennis Geist  Mark Kurz  Karen Harpp 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2005,67(2):170-185

The 1998 eruption of Volcán Cerro Azul in the Galápagos Islands produced two intra-caldera vents and a flank vent that erupted more than 1.0×10⁸ m³ of lava. Lava compositions changed notably during the 5-week eruption, and contemporaneous eruptions in the caldera and on the flank produced different compositions. Lavas erupted from the flank vent range from 6.3 to 14.1% MgO, nearly the entire range of MgO contents previously reported from the volcano. On-site monitoring of eruptive activity is linked with petrogenetic processes such that geochemical variations are evaluated in a temporal context. Lavas from the 1998 eruption record two petrogenetic stages characterized by progressively more mafic lavas as the eruption proceeded. Crystal compositions, whole rock major and trace element compositions, and isotope ratios indicate that early lavas are the product of mixing between 1998 magma and remnant magma of the 1979 eruption. Intra-caldera lavas and later lavas have no 1979 signature, but were produced by the 1998 magma incorporating olivine and clinopyroxene xenocrysts. Thus, early magma petrogenesis is characterized by mixing with the 1979 magma, followed by the magma progressively entraining wehrlite cumulate mush.Editorial Responsibility: M.R. Carroll  相似文献   

Adsorption of rare earth elements onto Carrizo sand: Experimental investigations and modeling with surface complexation     

Jianwu Tang  Karen H. Johannesson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(22):5247-5261

Rare earth element (REE) adsorption onto sand from a well characterized aquifer, the Carrizo Sand aquifer of Texas, has been investigated in the laboratory using a batch method. The aim was to improve our understanding of REE adsorption behavior across the REE series and to develop a surface complexation model for the REEs, which can be applied to real aquifer-groundwater systems. Our batch experiments show that REE adsorption onto Carrizo sand increases with increasing atomic number across the REE series. For each REE, adsorption increases with increasing pH, such that when pH >6.0, >98% of each REE is adsorbed onto Carrizo sand for all experimental solutions, including when actual groundwaters from the Carrizo Sand aquifer are used in the experiments. Rare earth element adsorption was not sensitive to ionic strength and total initial REE concentrations in our batch experiments. It is possible that the differences in experimental ionic strength conditions (i.e., 0.002-0.01 M NaCl) chosen were insufficient to affect REE adsorption behavior. However, cation competition (e.g., Ca, Mg, and Zn) did affect REE adsorption onto Carrizo sand, especially for light rare earth elements (LREEs) at low pH. Rare earth element adsorption onto Carrizo sand can be successfully modeled using a generalized two-layer surface complexation model. Our model calculations suggest that REE complexation with strong surface sites of Carrizo sand exceeds the stability of the aqueous complexes LnOH²⁺, LnSO₄⁺, and LnCO₃⁺, but not that of Ln(CO₃)₂^- or LnPO₄^o in Carrizo groundwaters. Thus, at low pH (<7.3), where major inorganic ligands did not effectively compete with surface sites for dissolved REEs, free metal ion (Ln³⁺) adsorption was sufficient to describe REE adsorption behavior. However, at higher pH (>7.3) where solution complexation of the dissolved REEs was strong, REEs were adsorbed not only as free metal ion (Ln³⁺) but also as aqueous complexes (e.g., as Ln(CO₃)₂^- in Carrizo groundwaters). Because heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) were preferentially adsorbed onto Carrizo sand compared to LREEs, original HREE-enriched fractionation patterns in Carrizo groundwaters from the recharge area flattened along the groundwater flow path in the Carrizo Sand aquifer due to adsorption of free- and solution-complexed REEs.  相似文献   

Unique achondrite Northwest Africa 11042: Exploring the melting and breakup of the L chondrite parent body     

Zoltn Vci  Carl B. Agee  Munir Humayun  Karen Ziegler  Yemane Asmerom  Victor Polyak  Henner Busemann  Daniela Krietsch  Matthew Heizler  Matthew E. Sanborn  Qing‐Zhu Yin 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2020,55(3):622-648

Northwest Africa (NWA) 11042 is a heavily shocked achondrite with medium‐grained cumulate textures. Its olivine and pyroxene compositions, oxygen isotopic composition, and chromium isotopic composition are consistent with L chondrites. Sm‐Nd dating of its primary phases shows a crystallization age of 4100 ± 160 Ma. Ar‐Ar dating of its shocked mineral maskelynite reveals an age of 484.0 ± 1.5 Ma. This age coincides roughly with the breakup event of the L chondrite parent body evident in the shock ages of many L chondrites and the terrestrial record of fossil L chondritic chromite. NWA 11042 shows large depletions in siderophile elements (<0.01×CI) suggestive of a complex igneous history involving extraction of a Fe‐Ni‐S liquid on the L chondrite parent body. Due to its relatively young crystallization age, the heat source for such an igneous process is most likely impact. Because its mineralogy, petrology, and O isotopes are similar to the ungrouped achondrite NWA 4284 (this work), the two meteorites are likely paired and derived from the same parent body.  相似文献   

Lake sedimentary processes and vegetation changes over the last 45k cal a bp in the uplands of south-eastern Amazonia     

José Tasso Felix Guimarães  Prafulla Kumar Sahoo  Mariana Maha Jana Costa De Figueiredo  Karen da Silva Lopes  Markus Gastauer  Silvio Junio Ramos  Cecilio Frois Caldeira  Pedro Walfir M. Souza-Filho  Luiza Santos Reis  Marcio Sousa Da Silva  Paulo Rogenes Pontes  Renato Oliveira Da Silva Junior  Tarcísio Magevski Rodrigues 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(2):255-272

This study addresses paleoclimate influences in a southern Amazonia ecotone based on multiproxy records from lakes of the Carajás region during the last 45k cal a bp. Wet and cool environmental conditions marked the initial deposition in shallow depressions with detrital sediments and high weathering rates until 40k cal a bp. Concomitantly, forest and C3 canga plants, along with cool-adapted taxa, developed; however, short drier episodes enabled expansion of C4 plants and diagenetic formation of siderite. A massive event of siderite formation occurred approximately 30k cal a bp under strong drier conditions. Afterwards, wet and cool environmental conditions returned and persisted until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM was marked by lake-level lowstands and subaerial exposure. The transition from the LGM to the Holocene is marked by the onset of oscillations in temperature and humidity, with an expansion of forest and canga plants. Cool taxa were present for the last time in the Carajás region ~ 9.5–9k cal a bp. After 10k cal a bp , shallow lakes became upland swamps due to natural infilling processes, but the current vegetation types and structures of the plateaus were acquired only after 3k cal a bp under wetter climatic conditions.  相似文献   

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling     

Anita Shepherd  Karen M. Gill  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3864-3877

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impacts and adaptation to climate change in European economies     

Asbjørn Aaheim  Helene Amundsen  Therese Dokken  Taoyuan Wei 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):959-968

This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries.  相似文献