Using response surfaces to estimate impacts of climate change on flood peaks: assessment of uncertainty          下载免费PDF全文

A. L. Kay  S. M. Crooks  N. S. Reynard 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5273-5287

The potential impacts of climate change are an increasing focus of research, and ever‐larger climate projection ensembles are available, making standard impact assessments more onerous. An alternative way of estimating impacts involves response surfaces, which present the change in a given indicator for a large number of plausible climatic changes defined on a regular sensitivity domain. Sets of climate change projections can then be overlaid on the response surface and impacts estimated from the nearest corresponding points of the sensitivity domain, providing a powerful method for fast impact estimation for multiple projections and locations. However, the effect of assumptions necessary for initial response surface development must be assessed. This paper assesses the uncertainty introduced by use of a sensitivity framework for estimating changes in 20‐year return period flood peaks in Britain. This sensitivity domain involves mean annual and seasonal precipitation changes, and a number of simplifications were necessary for consistency and to reduce dimensionality. The effect of these is investigated for nine catchments across Britain, representing nine typical response surfaces (response types), using three sets of climate projections. The results show that catchments can have different causes of uncertainty and some catchments have an overall higher level of uncertainty than others. These differences are compatible with the underlying climatological and hydrological differences between the response types, giving confidence in generalization of the results. This enables the development of uncertainty allowances by response type, to be used alongside the response surfaces to provide more robust impact estimates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Weathering of the black limestone of historical monuments (Ljubljana,Slovenia): Oxygen and sulfur isotope composition of sulfate salts     

Sabina Kramar  Breda Mirtič  Kay Knöller  Nastja Rogan-Šmuc 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(9-10):1632-1638

The black limestone widely used in Slovenian monuments, particularly in the baroque architecture, is deteriorating extensively due to salt crystallization. Samples of soluble salts from two important historical monuments (in Ljubljana, Slovenia) were investigated in terms of their mineral and isotopic (S and O) compositions. Results revealed the presence of gypsum and soluble salts of the MgSO₄·nH₂O series, such as starkeyite (MgSO₄·4H₂O), pentahydrite (MgSO₄·5H₂O) and hexahydrite (MgSO₄·6H₂O). Whereas black crusts and subflorescences consisted of gypsum, efflorescences appeared to be an assemblage of gypsum and MgSO₄ hydrates. Sample δ¹⁸O_sulfate values varied from ?1.9‰ to +5.5‰ vs. V-SMOW and δ³⁴S_sulfate values from ?19.8‰ to +3.2‰ vs. V-CDT. The respective isotopic composition of analysed outdoor and indoor monument samples indicated different sources of contamination.  相似文献   

Cosmological simulations of the intracluster medium     

Scott T. Kay  Peter A. Thomas  Adrian Jenkins  Frazer R. Pearce 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,355(4):1091-1104

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The effect of cooling and preheating on the X-ray properties of clusters of galaxies     

Orrarujee Muanwong  Peter A. Thomas  Scott T. Kay  Frazer R. Pearce 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,336(2):527-540

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COUNCIL MEETING,SEATTLE April 26-27, 1974     

Samuel Kay  Bo Zhao  Daniel Sui 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):351-363

Since the U.S. Embassy in Beijing placed an air quality sensor on its roof and began publishing the results on Twitter in 2008, air quality has gained widespread attention on Chinese microblogs. When the Chinese government introduced new air quality standards in 2012, some hailed this as a victory for Chinese microbloggers, signifying the emergence of social media as a democratizing force leading to greater citizen power. Using a representative sample of microblog posts collected from October 2012 to June 2013 on the topic of air pollution, as well as contextual information from a variety of sources, we examine how the government, companies, nongovernmental organizations, and individuals approach the Chinese social media landscape. We find that although microblogs are capable of empowering citizens to advance an environmental cause, social media have also been increasingly employed by the government as a tool for social monitoring and control and by companies as a platform for profiting from air pollution.  相似文献   

Determination of groundwater discharge rates and water residence time of groundwater‐fed lakes by stable isotopes of water (18O, 2H) and radon (222Rn) mass balances          下载免费PDF全文

Eric Petermann  John J. Gibson  Kay Knöller  Thomas Pannier  Holger Weiß  Michael Schubert 《水文研究》2018,32(6):805-816

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) and the related water residence time are crucial parameters for quantifying lake matter budgets and assessing its vulnerability to contaminant input. Our approach utilizes the stable isotopes of water (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) and the radioisotope radon (²²²Rn) for determining long‐term average and short‐term snapshots in LGD. We conducted isotope balances for the 0.5‐km² Lake Ammelshainer See (Germany) based on measurements of lake isotope inventories and groundwater composition accompanied by good quality and comprehensive long‐term meteorological and isotopic data (precipitation) from nearby monitoring stations. The results from the steady‐state annual isotope balances that rely on only two sampling campaigns are consistent for both δ¹⁸O and δ²H and suggested an overall long‐term average LGD rate that was used to infer the water residence time of the lake. These findings were supported by the good agreement of the simulated LGD‐driven annual cycles of δ¹⁸O and δ²H lake inventories with the observed lake isotope inventories. However, radon mass balances revealed lower values that might be the result of seasonal LGD variability. For obtaining further insights into possible seasonal variability of groundwater–lake interaction, stable water isotope and radon mass balances could be conducted more frequently (e.g., monthly) in order to use the derived groundwater discharge rates as input for time‐variant isotope balances.  相似文献   

Nature versus nurture: the curved spine of the galaxy cluster X-ray luminosity–temperature relation     

W. G. Hartley  L. Gazzola  F. R. Pearce  S. T. Kay  P. A. Thomas 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,386(4):2015-2021

The physical processes that define the spine of the galaxy cluster X-ray luminosity–temperature ( L – T ) relation are investigated using a large hydrodynamical simulation of the universe. This simulation models the same volume and phases as the millennium simulation and has a linear extent of  500  h ⁻¹ Mpc  . We demonstrate that mergers typically boost a cluster along but also slightly below the L – T relation. Due to this boost, we expect that all of the very brightest clusters will be near the peak of a merger. Objects from near the top of the L – T relation tend to have assembled much of their mass earlier than an average halo of similar final mass. Conversely, objects from the bottom of the relation are often experiencing an ongoing or recent merger.  相似文献   

Improving the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić Parameterization for wind conditions in the marine planetary boundary layer     

Kay Sušelj  Abha Sood 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,136(2):301-324

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Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S?o Francisco and the Paraná River basins     

Jose A. Marengo  Sin Chan Chou  Gillian Kay  Lincoln M. Alves  José F. Pesquero  Wagner R. Soares  Daniel C. Santos  André A. Lyra  Gustavo Sueiro  Richard Betts  Diego J. Chagas  Jorge L. Gomes  Josiane F. Bustamante  Priscila Tavares 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(9-10):1829-1848

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S?o Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.  相似文献   

Quantitative Recovery of Elemental Sulfur and Improved Selectivity in a Chromium-Reducible Sulfur Distillation     

Jens Gröger  Jennifer Franke  Kay Hamer  Horst D. Schulz 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2009,33(1):17-27

Chromium-reducible sulfur (CRS) distillations are intended to recover only reduced inorganic sulfur compounds (RIS) including elemental sulfur. However, the quantitative recovery of elemental sulfur is not ensured in common CRS-distillations. The new method presented here was designed to remedy this deficiency. An increase in ethanol concentration assured the quantitative recovery of elemental sulfur in various forms and, in addition, all other RIS-compounds were quantitatively recovered. Furthermore, the selectivity of the procedure was improved by an additional filtration step to eliminate zinc particles from the Cr(II)-solution. Thus, the recovery of sulfates and organic sulfur compounds was significantly decreased by a factor of up to 35, depending on the compound analysed. Exhaustive testing with a variety of pure phases, rock and soil samples demonstrated the precision and accuracy of the new method. The new protocol eliminated the constraints of previous procedures. The improved distillation efficiency for elemental sulfur ensured the quantitative recovery of all RIS-compounds in a single-step distillation.  相似文献