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排序方式: 共有582条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
71.
D. Heath Jones Will Saunders Matthew Colless Mike A. Read Quentin A. Parker Fred G. Watson Lachlan A. Campbell Daniel Burkey Thomas Mauch Lesa Moore Malcolm Hartley Paul Cass Dionne James Ken Russell Kristin Fiegert John Dawe John Huchra Tom Jarrett Ofer Lahav John Lucey Gary A. Mamon Dominique Proust Elaine M. Sadler Ken-ichi Wakamatsu 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,355(3):747-763
73.
Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
David W. Pierce Tapash Das Daniel R. Cayan Edwin P. Maurer Norman L. Miller Yan Bao M. Kanamitsu Kei Yoshimura Mark A. Snyder Lisa C. Sloan Guido Franco Mary Tyree 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):839-856
Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling. 相似文献
74.
Ken Kobayashi Jonathan Cirtain Amy R. Winebarger Kelly Korreck Leon Golub Robert W. Walsh Bart De Pontieu Craig DeForest Alan Title Sergey Kuzin Sabrina Savage Dyana Beabout Brent Beabout William Podgorski David Caldwell Kenneth McCracken Mark Ordway Henry Bergner Richard Gates Sean McKillop Peter Cheimets Simon Platt Nick Mitchell David Windt 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4393-4412
The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) was flown on a NASA sounding rocket on 11 July 2012. The goal of the Hi-C mission was to obtain high-resolution (≈?0.3?–?0.4′′), high-cadence (≈?5 seconds) images of a solar active region to investigate the dynamics of solar coronal structures at small spatial scales. The instrument consists of a normal-incidence telescope with the optics coated with multilayers to reflect a narrow wavelength range around 19.3 nm (including the Fe xii 19.5-nm spectral line) and a 4096×4096 camera with a plate scale of 0.1′′?pixel?1. The target of the Hi-C rocket flight was Active Region 11520. Hi-C obtained 37 full-frame images and 86 partial-frame images during the rocket flight. Analysis of the Hi-C data indicates the corona is structured on scales smaller than currently resolved by existing satellite missions. 相似文献
75.
The construction of stationary expressions for quantities of physical interest such as radiated power and target strength is discussed broadly for acoustic problems involving radiation or scattering from finite objects of arbitrary shape. The Kirchhoff-Helmholtz integral corollaries of the wave equation, which express acoustic pressure at either interior or exterior points in terms of pressure and its normal derivative over any closed surface, yield for both interior and exterior problems two mathematically dissimilar but related functional relations between surface field quantities. One of these is the better known surface Helmholtz integral equation; the other is a differential-integral relation which involves the tangential derivatives of pressure on the surface. The four linear operators involved in these functional relations are studied and it is found that two are self-adjoint, while the other two are an adjoint pair. A general technique for constructing variational expressions recently developed by Gerjuoy et al. [28] is adapted to acoustic radiation and scattering problems with the functional relations taken as the primary governing relations. Included examples are stationary expressions for the radiated power when either the normal velocity or the pressure are specified on the surface (the other quantity being unknown) and the target strength for scattering from a rigid object. The adjoint relations allow simple physical interpretations for the Lagrange multipliers that arise in the theory, such that the guesses for good trial functions can take advantage of existing physical insight. It is demonstrated with a specific example (transversely vibrating disk) that the resulting estimate for radiated power is substantially more accurate than that of the trial function for surface pressure which was inserted into the stationary expression. 相似文献
76.
Cokriging is applied to the estimation of mineral resources in a polymetallic deposit. Several major steps, which should be taken in using cokriging, are highlighted as necessary practical considerations. The case study is related to an ultramafic copper-nickel deposit. Six elements, Cu, Ni, Au, Ag, Pt, and Pd, occurring in the deposit, are partitioned into three subgroups and the elements within each group are simultaneously estimated on the basis of over 4000 drill assays. A comparison was made between ordinary kriging and cokriging methods through cross-validation. The results show that cokriging has significantly improved the estimates of resources by reducing the overall estimation error by over 15% and the variance of error by over 20%. 相似文献
77.
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79.
Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to identify counties at risk of low final ground water storage volume or low levels of satisfied demand by 2050. 相似文献
80.