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Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol has an ambitious reporting and review system to assess Parties' compliance with their emission commitments. It is based on a ‘bottom-up’ approach; that is, each Party is required to submit detailed inventories of emissions and removals. This requires considerable resources and may still not detect all important cases of non-compliance. We consider the case for introducing ‘top-down’ methods; that is, independent inverse modelling methods that calculate probable emissions using measured concentrations of gases in the atmosphere and meteorological models. We argue that the top-down methods are at present too inaccurate, too cumbersome, and politically too problematic to serve as independent alternatives to the reported emission inventories for assessing compliance, although they could be useful in monitoring the global success of the protocol. We conclude that these top-down approaches may supplement the traditional emission inventories, in particular those dealing with fluorinated gases, thereby providing input for improving the emission inventory methods.  相似文献   
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Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Selection of a best suited satellite-based gridded rainfall product (SGRP) is challenging due to their significant variations at spatial and temporal scale....  相似文献   
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In western Canada gas hydrates have been thought to exist primarily in the Cascadia accretionary prism off southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia (BC). We present evidence for the existence of gas hydrate in folds and ridges of the Winona Basin up to 40 km seaward from the foot of the continental slope off northern Vancouver Island. The occurrence of a bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) observed in a number of vintage seismic reflection profiles is strongly correlated to faulted, and folded sedimentary ridges and buried folds. The observed tectonic structures of the Winona Basin are within the rapidly evolving Juan de Fuca - Cascadia - Queen Charlotte triple junction off BC. Re-processing of multi-channel data imaged mildly to strongly deformed sediments; the BSR is confined to sediments with stronger deformation. Changes in the amplitude character of sediment-reflections above and below the depth of the base of gas hydrate stability zone were also used as an indicator for the presence of gas hydrate. Additionally, regional amplitude and frequency reduction below some strong BSR occurrences may indicate free gas accumulations. Gas hydrate formation in the Winona Basin appears strongly constrained to folds and ridges and thus correlated to deeper-routed fluid-advection regimes. Methane production from in situ microbial activities as a source of gas to form gas hydrates, as proposed to be a major contributor for gas hydrates within the accretionary prism to the south, appears to be insufficient to produce the widespread gas hydrate occurrences in the Winona Basin. Potential reasons for the lack of sufficient in situ gas production may be that sedimentation rates are 5-100 times higher than those in the accretionary prism so that available organic carbon moves too quickly through the gas hydrate stability field. The confinement of BSRs to ridges and folds within the Winona Basin results in an areal extent of gas hydrate occurrences that is a factor of five less than what is expected from regional gas hydrate stability field mapping using water-depth (pressure) as the only controlling factor only.  相似文献   
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Surveys of wood along 30 forested headwater stream reaches in La Selva Biological Station in north‐eastern Costa Rica represent the first systematic data reported on wood loads in neotropical streams. For streams with drainage areas of 0·1–8·5 km2 and gradients of 0·2–8%, wood load ranged from 3 to 34·7 m3 wood/100 m channel and 41–612 m3 wood/ha channel. These values are within the range reported for temperate streams. The variables wood diameter/flow depth, stream power, the presence of backflooding, and channel width/depth are consistently selected as significant predictors by statistical models for wood load. These variables explain half to two‐thirds of the variability in wood load. These results, along with the spatial distribution of wood with respect to the thalweg, suggest that transport processes exert a greater influence on wood loads than recruitment processes. Wood appears to be more geomorphically effective in altering bed elevations in gravel‐bed reaches than in reaches with coarser or finer substrate. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Alluvial channel bed incision and bank widening have been reported in both the south‐western and south‐eastern US throughout the past century. Distinct regional differences in climate and landscape properties likely influence the rate of erosion. This study discusses regional differences in hydraulic driving forces and substrate resistance and tests the hypothesis that regional differences exist in average rates of channel incision, bank erosion, and knickpoint retreat. Specifically, we hypothesize that erosion rates are higher in south‐western US streams and reason that this is because of greater flood magnitudes and limited substrate resistance. A review of the literature documenting incision, bank erosion, and knickpoint retreat, however, indicates that intra‐regional differences are larger than inter‐regional differences and that average rates in the south‐western US are either statistically similar or less than the rates in parts of the south‐eastern US. This could either be a result of strong intra‐regional hydroclimatic and substrate variability or because average erosion rate may not be an appropriate metric for inter‐regional comparisons because of the variability between case studies associated with the field methods to measure erosion, duration of study period, and time since disturbance to the channel. Nevertheless, these findings provide a basis for future evaluations of the relative importance of different controls on driving and resisting forces in these and other landscapes characterized by rapid channel incision and arroyo formation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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We present ab initio calculations of the zero-temperature iron high- to low-spin crossover in (Mg1 ? xFex)SiO3 perovskite at pressures relevant to Earth's lower mantle. Equations of state are fit for a range of compositions and used to predict the Fe spin transition pressure and associated changes in volume and bulk modulus. We predict a dramatic decrease in transition pressure as Fe concentration increases. This trend is contrary to that seen in ferropericlase, and suggests the energetics for spin crossover is highly dependent on the structural environment of Fe. Both Local Density Approximation (LDA) and Generalized Gradient Approximation (GGA) exchange-correlation methods are used, and both methods reproduce the same compositional trends. However, GGA gives a significantly higher transition pressure than LDA. The spin transition is made easier by the decreasing spin-flip energy with pressure but is also driven by the change in volume from high to low spin. Volume trends show that high-spin Fe2+ is larger than Mg2+ even under pressure, but low-spin Fe2+ is smaller at ambient conditions and approximately the same size as Mg2+ under high pressure, indicating that low-spin Fe2+ is less compressible than high-spin Fe2+. We find large changes between high- and low-spin in the slope of volume with Fe concentration. Although these changes are small in absolute magnitude for small Fe content, they are still important when measured per Fe and could be relevant for calculating partitioning coefficients in the lower mantle.  相似文献   
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