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21.
We present a semi-analytical hydrodynamical model for the structure of reconfinement shocks formed in astrophysical relativistic jets interacting with external medium. We take into account exact conservation laws, both across the shock front and in the zone of the shocked matter, and exact angular relations. Our results confirm a good accuracy of the approximate formulae derived by Komissarov & Falle. However, including the transverse pressure gradient in the shocked jet, we predict an absolute size of the shock to be about twice larger. We calculate the efficiency of the kinetic energy dissipation in the shock and show a strong dependence on both the bulk Lorentz factor and opening angle of the jet.  相似文献   
22.
We investigate the dynamics of putative Earth-mass planets in the habitable zone (HZ) of the extrasolar planetary system OGLE-2006-BLG-109L, a close analogue of the Solar system. Our work is inspired by the work of Malhotra & Minton. Using the linear Laplace–Lagrange theory, they identified a strong secular resonance that may excite large eccentricity of orbits in the HZ. However, due to uncertain or unconstrained orbital parameters, the subsystem of Jupiters may be found in a dynamically active region of the phase space spanned by low-order mean-motion resonances. To generalize this secular model, we construct a semi-analytical averaging method in terms of the restricted problem. The secular orbits of large planets are approximated by numerically averaged osculating elements. They are used to calculate the mean orbits of terrestrial planets by means of a high-order analytic secular theory developed in our previous works. We found regions in the parameter space of the problem in which stable, quasi-circular orbits in the HZ are permitted. The excitation of eccentricity in the HZ strongly depends on the apsidal angle of jovian orbits. For some combinations of that angle, eccentricities and semimajor axes consistent with the observations, a terrestrial planet may survive in low eccentric orbits. We also study the effect of post-Newtonian gravity correction on the innermost secular resonance.  相似文献   
23.
Western Poland is located in the central European climatic transition zone, which separates the mild and humid Atlantic climate of Western Europe and the East European continental climate. This region is sensitive to lateral shifts of the European climate zones and is particularly suitable for reconstructing Holocene climate variability. This paper presents detailed analyses of the sedimentary record from Lake Strzeszyńskie since the Late Pleistocene. These include smear-slide and thin-section observations, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, magnetic susceptibility measurements, pollen analyses, and radiocarbon dating. The sediment record reveals three distinct sedimentary units consisting of: (1) an alternation of sand layers and laminated silt and clay deposits accumulated prior to 14,600 cal yr BP; (2) faintly laminated calcareous sediments intercalated with organic matter-rich layers deposited between 14,600 and 10,200 cal yr BP; and (3) massive calcareous mud deposited after 10,200 cal yr BP. The Holocene period is marked by nine phases of organic-rich sedimentation and enhanced Fe deposition, which occurred at ca. 10.1, 9.3, 6.4–6.1, 5.5–5.1, 4.7–4.5, 2.7–2.4, 1.3–1.2, 0.8–0.6, 0.4–0.2 kyr cal BP. These phases are associated with high lake levels and correspond with wet periods recognized in several other records from Poland and central Europe. These phases partly coincide with North Atlantic cold periods, which may suggest that high lake levels are triggered by an ocean-continent linking mechanism.  相似文献   
24.
Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030 and 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3–6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2–12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3–8 % in 2030 and 5–14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts.  相似文献   
25.
Abstract

The Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) systems belong to the fundamental tools used in ensuring a high level of safety across sea basins with heavy traffic, where the presence of navigational hazards poses a great risk of collision or a ship running aground. In order to determine the mutual location of ships, VTS systems obtain information from different facilities, such as coastal radar stations, AIS, and vision systems. Fixing a ship’s position is always accompanied by a degree of error, but the degree of error depends on the specific position fixing system used. In order to increase the accuracy of position fixing in VTS systems, the authors propose the use of contemporary geodetic methods. The article presents the theoretical fundamentals of two unconventional geodesic methods of estimation: M estimation and Msplit(q)estimation and the authors’ own proposal of their application in VTS systems. The article concludes with a test verifying theoretical assumptions, performed with the use of a computer application allowing position fixing with the use of selected robust adjustment methods. Furthermore, an example is presented of Msplit(q)estimation as used for the acquisition of low-signal radar echoes, which in VTS systems are not automatically identified for tracking. The level of the echo signal makes it difficult for a VTS controller to separate these objects from typical radar noise and interference.  相似文献   
26.
The paper presents the results of analyses of numerical experiments concerning GPS signal propagation delays in the atmosphere and the discrete mapping functions defined on their basis. The delays were determined using data from the mesoscale non-hydrostatic weather model operated in the Centre of Applied Geomatics, Military University of Technology. A special attention was paid to investigating angular characteristics of GPS slant delays for low angles of elevation. The investigation proved that the temporal and spatial variability of the slant delays depends to a large extent on current weather conditions.  相似文献   
27.
An association of organic-walled microfossils consisting of filamentous cyanobacteria, algal coenobia and acanthomorphic acritarch have been documented from non-calcareous claystones and mudstones of the Pepper Mountains Shale Formation(PMSF), located in its stratotype area in the Pepper Mountains, which are part of the Holy Cross Mountains in Poland. These sediments represent the oldest strata of the ?ysogóry Unit, deposited on the edge of the East European Craton(Baltica). Non-branched, ribbon-like and thread-like cyanobacteria trichomes exhibit morphological similarities to families Nostocaceae and Oscillatoriaceae. Cells assembled in rounded to irregular clusters of monospecific agglomerations represent multicellular algal coenobia, attributed to the family Scenedesmaceae. The co-occurrence of acritarchs belonging to species as Eliasum llaniscum, Cristallinium ovillense and Estiastra minima indicates that the studied material corresponds to the lower Middle Cambrian. Deposition of the PMSF took place in shallow marine environment, influenced by periodical freshwater inputs. The varying degree of coloration of organic-walled microfossils is interpreted in this study as factor indication of possible different source of their derivation. Dark brown walls of cells assembled in algal coenobia might have sustained previous humification in humid, terrestrial environments, which preceded their river transport into the sea together with nutrients, causing occasional blooms of cyanobacteria in the coastal environment and the final deposition of both groups of organisms in marine deposits.  相似文献   
28.
Changes in river flow regime resulted in a surge in the number of methods of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Common assumption is the time-invariant distribution function with time-dependent location and scale parameters while the shape parameters are time-invariant. Here, instead of location and scale parameters of the distribution, the mean and standard deviation are used. We analyse the accuracy of the two methods in respect to estimation of time-dependent first two moments, time-invariant skewness and time-dependent upper quantiles. The method of maximum likelihood (ML) with time covariate is confronted with the Two Stage (TS) one (combining Weighted Least Squares and L-moments techniques). Comparison is made by Monte Carlo simulations. Assuming parent distribution which ensures the asymptotic superiority of ML method, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution with various values of linearly changing in time first two moments, constant skewness, and various time-series lengths are considered. Analysis of results indicates the superiority of TS methods in all analyzed aspects. Moreover, the estimates from TS method are more resistant to probability distribution choice, as demonstrated by Polish rivers’ case studies.  相似文献   
29.
We study the effect of stratification and compressibility on the threshold of convection and the heat transfer by developed convection in the nonlinear regime in the presence of strong background rotation. We consider fluids both with constant thermal conductivity and constant thermal diffusivity. The fluid is confined between two horizontal planes with both boundaries being impermeable and stress-free. An asymptotic analysis is performed in the limits of weak compressibility of the medium and rapid rotation (τ?1/12???|θ|???1, where τ is the Taylor number and θ is the dimensionless temperature jump across the fluid layer). We find that the properties of compressible convection differ significantly in the two cases considered. Analytically, the correction to the characteristic Rayleigh number resulting from small compressibility of the medium is positive in the case of constant thermal conductivity of the fluid and negative for constant thermal diffusivity. These results are compared with numerical solutions for arbitrary stratification. Furthermore, by generalizing the nonlinear theory of Julien and Knobloch [Fully nonlinear three-dimensional convection in a rapidly rotating layer. Phys. Fluids 1999, 11, 1469–1483] to include the effects of compressibility, we study the Nusselt number in both cases. In the weakly nonlinear regime we report an increase of efficiency of the heat transfer with the compressibility for fluids with constant thermal diffusivity, whereas if the conductivity is constant, the heat transfer by a compressible medium is more efficient than in the Boussinesq case only if the specific heat ratio γ is larger than two.  相似文献   
30.
Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m3 s-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979  相似文献   
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