Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search     

Lars Kristian Nielsen  Sam Subbey  Mike Christie  Trond Mannseth 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(3):321-342

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.  相似文献   

Late-Glacial and Early Holocene Environmental and Climatic Change at Lake Tambichozero, Southeastern Russian Karelia     

Barbara Wohlfarth  Ludmila Filimonova  Ole Bennike  Leif Bjrkman  Lars Brunnberg  Nadja Lavrova  Igor Demidov  Gran Possnert 《Quaternary Research》2002,58(3):261

High-resolution lithostratigraphy, mineral magnetic, carbon, pollen, and macrofossil analyses, and accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C measurements were performed in the study of a sediment sequence from Lake Tambichozero, southeastern Russian Karelia, to reconstruct late-glacial and early Holocene aquatic and terrestrial environmental changes. The lake formed ca. 14,000 cal yr B.P. and the area around the lake was subsequently colonized by arctic plants, forming patches of pioneer communities surrounded by areas of exposed soil. A minor rise in lake productivity and the immigration of Betula pubescens occurred ca. 11,500 cal yr B.P. The rise in summer temperatures probably led to increased melting of remnant ice and enhanced erosion. The distinct increase in lake productivity and the development of open Betula-Populus forests, which are reconstructed based on plant macrofossil remains, indicate stable soils from 10,600 cal yr B.P. onward. Pinus and Picea probably became established ca. 9900 cal yr B.P.  相似文献   

Oxygen fugacity and geochemical variations in the martian basalts: implications for martian basalt petrogenesis and the oxidation state of the upper mantle of Mars     

Christopher D.K Herd  Lars E BorgJohn H Jones  James J Papike 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(11):2025-2036

The oxygen fugacity of the Dar al Gani 476 martian basalt is determined to be quartz-fayalite-magnetite (QFM) −2.3 ± 0.4 through analysis of olivine, low-Ca pyroxene, and Cr-spinel and is in good agreement with revised results from Fe-Ti oxides that yield QFM −2.5 ± 0.7. This estimate falls within the range of oxygen fugacity for the other martian basalts, QFM −3 to QFM −1. Oxygen fugacity in martian basalts correlates with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, and La/Yb ratios, indicating that the mantle source of the basalts is reduced and that assimilation of crust-like material controls the oxygen fugacity. This allows constraints to be placed on the oxidation state of the martian mantle and on the nature of assimilated crustal material. The assimilated material may be the product of early and extensive hydrothermal alteration of the martian crust, or it may be amphibole- or phlogopite-bearing basaltic rock within the crust. In either case, water may play a significant role in the oxidation of basaltic magmas on Mars, although it may be secondary to assimilation of ferric iron-rich material.  相似文献   

Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

Hans Jrgen Henriksen  Lars Troldborg  Per Nyegaard  Torben Obel Sonnenborg  Jens Christian Refsgaard  Bjarne Madsen 《Journal of Hydrology》2003,280(1-4):52-71

An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km² grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km². The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km² island of Sjælland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area).  相似文献   

Stochastic Structural Modeling   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Lars Holden  Petter Mostad  Bjørn Fredrik Nielsen  Jon Gjerde  Chris Townsend  Signe Ottesen 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(8):899-914

A consistent stochastic model for faults and horizons is described. The faults are represented as a parametric invertible deformation operator. The faults may truncate each other. The horizons are modeled as correlated Gaussian fields and are represented in a grid. Petrophysical variables may be modeled in a reservoir before faulting in order to describe the juxtaposition effect of the faulting. It is possible to condition the realization on petrophysics, horizons, and fault plane observations in wells in addition to seismic data. The transmissibility in the fault plane may also be included in the model. Four different methods to integrate the fault and horizon models in a common model is described. The method is illustrated on an example from a real petroleum field with 18 interpreted faults that are handled stochastically.  相似文献   

Initiation of the last glaciation in northern europe     

Lars Forsström  Mikko Punkari 《Quaternary Science Reviews》1997,16(10):1197-1215

The bio- and chronostratigraphy of the Eemian interglacial (marine isotope substage 5e) and an Early Weichselian glaciation (5d-a) established from representative and detailed sequences can be correlated with the deep-sea oxygen isotope stratigraphy, ice-core data, sea-level fluctuations and coupled ice sheet-climate models. Biostratigraphic sequences from Fennoscandian key sections are correlated with reference sequences from Estonia and from sections located near or beyond the margins of the last glaciation. Organic sediments previously attributed to Early and Middle Weichselian interstadial periods in Finland are argued to be redeposited and mixed older (last interglacial) material. Pollen and diatom spectra of the undisturbed materials suggest that the Eemian climatic optimum was followed by a continuously cooling climate and a regressive marine level. If only undisturbed sequences are considered, the major climatic fluctuations of the Early Weichselian, apparent in Central and Western Europe, are not apparent in the sequences from the central part of the glaciated terrain. Instead, some sequences are truncated by sediments indicating approaching ice sheets soon after the interglacial. This may imply that the ice sheet grew over Finland during the first Early Weichselian stadial. The preservation of the interglacial beds and the lack of younger non-glacial sediments support the interpretation that the area remained ice-covered until the final deglaciation. During the Early Weichselian, the Norwegian coast was probably occasionally ice free, similar to the coastal zone of Greenland today. The authors' interpretation of the Fennoscandian organic deposits of the last glaciation may also explain similar observations from the central parts of the Laurentide ice sheet.  相似文献   

Using rainfall-runoff modeling to interpret lake level data   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Lars Bengtsson  Joakim Malm 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1997,18(3):235-248

Using water balance computations, the behavior of different kinds of lakes is discussed. Simple analytical expressions relating water level to hydrological conditions and lake bathymetry are given. The importance of knowing the river basin area when analyzing lake levels is stressed. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model including lake routing is used to simulate runoff and lake levels and to compute quasi-steady state conditions and long-term transient situations. It is suggested that models can be used to construct curves relating lake levels to precipitation and lake evaporation. By comparing with paleo-lake levels, the annual precipitation related to these levels can be found, provided information is available about the seasonal distribution of the precipitation.  相似文献   

Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging     

Nils-Otto Kitterrød  Lars Gottschalk 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):459-482

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.  相似文献   

Simulation of normal distributed smooth fields by Karhunen-Loéve expansion in combination with kriging     

Nils-Otto Kitterr?d  Lars Gottschalk 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1997,11(6):459-482

Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.  相似文献   

Hydrological connectivity of soil pipes determined by ground‐penetrating radar tracer detection     

Joseph Holden 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(4):437-442

Soil pipes are common and important features of many catchments, particularly in semi‐arid and humid areas, and can contribute a large proportion of runoff to river systems. They may also signi?cantly in?uence catchment sediment and solute yield. However, there are often problems in ?nding and de?ning soil pipe networks which are located deep below the surface. Ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) has been used for non‐destructive identi?cation and mapping of soil pipes in blanket peat catchments. While GPR can identify subsurface cavities, it cannot alone determine hydrological connectivity between one cavity and another. This paper presents results from an experiment to test the ability of GPR to establish hydrological connectivity between pipes through use of a tracer solution. Sodium chloride was injected into pipe cavities previously detected by the radar. The GPR was placed downslope of the injection points and positioned on the ground directly above detected soil pipes. The resultant radargrams showed signi?cant changes in re?ectance from some cavities and no change from others. Pipe waters were sampled in order to check the radar results. Changes in electrical conductivity of the pipe water could be detected by the GPR, without data post‐processing, when background levels were increased by more than approximately twofold. It was thus possible to rapidly determine hydrological connectivity of soil pipes within dense pipe networks across hillslopes without ground disturbance. It was also possible to remotely measure travel times through pipe systems; the passing of the salt wave below the GPR produced an easily detectable signal on the radargram which required no post‐processing. The technique should allow remote sensing of water sources and sinks for soil pipes below the surface. The improved understanding of ?owpath connectivity will be important for understanding water delivery, solutional and particulate denudation, and hydrological and geomorphological model development. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献