Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Ye  Jianzhong Zhou  Hoshin V. Gupta  Hairong Zhang  Xiaofan Zeng  Lu Chen 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2703-2716

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Discharge‐sediment processes of the Zhadang glacier on the Tibetan Plateau measured with a high frequency data acquisition system          下载免费PDF全文

Fei Chen  Qiangguo Cai  Liying Sun  Tingwu Lei 《水文研究》2016,30(23):4330-4338

In high elevation cold regions of the Tibetan Plateau, suspended sediment transfer from glacier meltwater erosion is one of the important hydrological components. The Zhadang glacier is a typical valley‐type glacier in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains on the Tibetan Plateau. To make frequent and long period records of meltwater runoff and sediment processes in the very high elevation and isolated regions, an automatic system was installed near the glacier snout (5400 m a.s.l) in August 2013, to measure the transient discharge and sediment processes at 5‐min interval, which is shorter than the time span for the water flow to traverse the catchment from the farthest end to the watershed outlet. Diurnal variations of discharge, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) were recorded at high frequency for the Zhadang glacier, before suspended sediment load (SSL) was computed. Hourly SSC varied from the range of 0.2 kg/m³ to 0.5 kg/m³ (at 8:00–9:00) to the range of 2.0 kg/m³ to 4.0 kg/m³ (at 17:00–18:00). The daily SSL was 32.24 t during the intense ablation period. Hourly SSC was linearly correlated with discharge (r = 0.885**, n = 18, p < 0.01). A digit‐eight hysteresis loop was observed for the sediment transport in the glacier area. Air temperature fluctuations influence discharge, and then result in the sediment variations. The results of this study provide insight into the responses of suspended sediment delivery processes with a high frequency data in the high elevation cold regions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new prediction model for mining subsidence deformation: the arc tangent function model     

Lei Nie  Hongfei Wang  Yan Xu  Zechuang Li 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(3):2185-2198

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The effect of expansion ratio on the critical Reynolds number in single fracture flow with sudden expansion          下载免费PDF全文

Jiazhong Qian  Lei Ma  Hongbin Zhan  Qiankun Luo  Xiao Wang  Mu Wang 《水文研究》2016,30(11):1718-1726

Flow in a single fracture (SF) is an important research subject in groundwater hydrology, hydraulic engineering, radioactive nuclear waste repository and geotechnical engineering. An abruptly changing aperture is a unique type of SF. This study discusses the relation between the values of the critical Reynolds number (Re_c) for the onset of symmetry breaking of flow and the expansion ratio (E) of SF, which is defined as the ratio between the outlet (D) and inlet (d) apertures. This study also investigates the effect of inlet aperture d on Re_c for flow in an SF with abruptly changing apertures (SF‐ACA) using the finite volume method. Earlier numerical and experimental results showed that flow is symmetric in respect to the central plane of the SF‐ACA at small Reynolds number (Re) but becomes asymmetric when Re is sufficiently large. Our simulations show that the value of Re_c decreases with the increasing E, and the relationship between the logarithm of Re_c and E can be described accurately using either a quadratic polynomial function or a logarithmic function. However, the relationship of Re_c and d for a given E value is vague, and Re_c becomes even less sensitive to d when E increases. This study also reveals that the hydraulic gradient (J) and flow velocity (v) follow a super‐linear relationship that can be fitted almost perfectly by the Forchheimer equation. The inertial component (J_i) of J increases monotonically with Re, whereas the viscous component (J_v) of J decreases monotonically with Re. The Re value corresponding to equal inertial and viscous components of J (named as the transitional point Re) decreases when E increases, and such a transitional point Re should be closely related to the critical Reynolds number Re_c, although a rigorous theoretical proof is not yet available. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing the effectiveness of imperviousness on stormwater runoff in micro urban catchments by model simulation          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Yao  Liding Chen  Wei Wei 《水文研究》2016,30(12):1836-1848

Imperviousness, considered as a critical indicator of the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, has gained increasing attention both in the research field and in practice. However, the effectiveness of imperviousness on rainfall–runoff dynamics has not been fully determined in a fine spatiotemporal scale. In this study, 69 drainage subareas <1 ha of a typical residential catchment in Beijing were selected to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of imperviousness, under a typical storm event with a 3‐year return period. Two metrics, total impervious area (TIA) and effective impervious area (EIA), were identified to represent the impervious characteristics of the selected subareas. Three runoff variables, total runoff depth (TR), peak runoff depth (PR), and lag time (LT), were simulated by using a validated hydrologic model. Regression analyses were developed to explore the quantitative associations between imperviousness and runoff variables. Then, three scenarios were established to test the applicability of the results in considering the different infiltration conditions. Our results showed that runoff variables are significantly related to imperviousness. However, the hydrologic performances of TIA and EIA were scale dependent. Specifically, with finer spatial scale and the condition heavy rainfall, TIA rather than EIA was found to contribute more to TR and PR. EIA tended to have a greater impact on LT and showed a negative relationship. Moreover, the relative significance of TIA and EIA was maintained under the different infiltration conditions. These findings may provide potential implications for landscape and drainage design in urban areas, which help to mitigate the runoff risk. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Yan  Lihua Xiong  Dedi Liu  Tiesong Hu  Chong‐Yu Xu 《水文研究》2017,31(1):69-89

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Relationship between SST anomalies and the intensity of intraseasonal variability   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Fei Liu  Lei Zhou  Jian Ling  Xiouhua Fu  Gang Huang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(3-4):847-854

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藏南马扎拉金锑矿床围岩蚀变及矿化特征     

代作文  李光明  丁俊  李应栩  董磊  黄勇  曹华文 《地质论评》2016,62(S1):27-28

马扎拉金锑矿位于西藏自治区山南地区措美县东南部古堆乡,东临隆子县,南近错那县,区域上位于藏南拆离断裂（陈智梁等,1996）以北的特提斯喜马拉雅（或称特提斯喜马拉雅）褶皱造山带（许志琴等,2006）南部,属于隆子逆冲推覆断裂的前缘。自2014年开始,成都地质调查中心作为扎西康整装勘查的主要实施单位接受了西藏雪域矿业开发有限公司的委托,在矿区开展地质找矿工作,现已基本查明了金锑矿体围岩蚀变和矿化特征。  相似文献   

Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xin Wen  Guohua Fang  Heshuai Qi  Lei Zhou  Yuqin Gao 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,123(1-2):369-386

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Merged dust climatology in Phoenix,Arizona based on satellite and station data     

Hang Lei  Julian X. L. Wang  Daniel Q. Tong  Pius Lee 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(9-10):2785-2799

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