SWAN系统中QPE产品的应用评估     

王珏  冷亮  吴涛 《气象科技》2015,43(3):380-386

“灾害天气短时临近预报系统”(SWAN)在我国气象预报业务中已得到广泛应用。文章介绍其中雷达定量降水估算QPE算法 (RASIM方法)的技术与特点,选取湖北省6部S波段多普勒天气雷达在2012年探测的暴雨天气过程资料,系统性评估了SWAN系统中QPE产品实用性,初步分析了产生估算误差的原因。评估表明：整体而言该方法在湖北省使用效果较好,平均绝对误差率小于30%;探测距离的增加对S波段雷达QPE精度影响不大;各雷达对30 mm以上降水的估算平均绝对误差率较小,但估算结果较实况偏弱,随着雨量（雨强）增大,低估的比例也增大。就单部雷达而言,宜昌雷达估算降水误差最大,武汉雷达受附近建筑遮挡影响次之,恩施雷达估算降水误差最小。  相似文献   

长江中游沿岸地下水中铵氮与磷的共存规律及其控制因素     

冷智超  杜尧  陶艳秋  黄艳雯  邓娅敏 《地质科技情报》2022,41(1):300-308

长江中游平原区面临着一系列严重的地质环境问题,其中地下水铵氮和磷的问题十分突出,但目前对于二者共存规律的认识还十分薄弱.以长江中游沿岸故道区为典型研究区,对采集的地下水样品进行了水文地球化学分析,并综合运用因子分析和随机森林模型探讨了铵氮和磷的赋存规律.结果 表明:地下水整体处于还原环境中,NH4N的质量浓度为0.03...  相似文献   

随机波作用下伞式吸力锚基础局部冲刷演变分析     

赵真  胡瑞庚  刘红军  冷浩 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2022,52(3):139-147

为了验证新型伞式吸力锚基础的防冲刷效果,本文利用Flow-3D软件建立三维海床-吸力锚-波浪相互作用模型,基于JONSWAP随机波浪谱,结合某海域风区资料模拟随机波,对随机波浪作用下伞式吸力锚基础(USAF)局部冲刷演变进行分析,试验土体为非黏性土.首先探讨了随机波浪作用下基础周围流场变化规律和冲刷演变模式,其次分析了...  相似文献   

Provenance of late Ashgill (Hirnantian) fine-grained sediments and pebbles in the Welsh Basin: A ND and SR isotope study     

M. J. Leng  J. A. Evans 《Geological Journal》1994,29(1):1-9

The isotope characteristics of interbedded fine-grained sedimentary rocks and pebbles from an Ashgill sequence in the Welsh Basin show that they have different provenance. Gondwana-derived continental crustal material dominates the Nd-Sr isotope signatures of the fine-grained rocks whereas the pebbles sample the Avalonian basement. Detritus from Gondwana and Avalonia accounts for the isotopic composition of most of the lower Palaeozoic sedimentary rocks of Southern Britain and this suggests that any contribution from the reworking of Lower Palaeozoic volcanic rock is minimal.  相似文献   

2023年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析     

支蓉  高辉  孙冷 《气象》2024,50(3):377-386

2023年夏季,我国整体表现为高温少雨的特征,旱涝分布不均。夏季台风虽然生成和登陆个数均较常年偏少,但破坏力极强。华北、西北等地阶段性高温事件异常突出,但长江流域的高温干旱强度明显弱于2022年同期。从预测效果来看,2023年汛期预测较好把握了我国北方主雨带特征,对松花江流域、嫩江流域、海河流域可能出现的较重汛情做出了准确的预测预警。对夏季热带气旋的生成个数、主要路径、影响区域等的预测与实况较为相符。对夏季全国大部地区气温偏高的特征预测与实况一致,并明确指出,长江流域发生类似2022年夏季大范围持续性高温干旱事件的可能性低。汛期预测的不足之处主要在于对华南等地的降水预测与实况出现较大偏差,对华北、黄淮等地的高温过程极端性估计不足。针对2023年汛期降水的先兆信号及其预报性能进行了回顾和评估,无论是年代际尺度还是年际尺度外强迫信号,均对我国北方主雨带有较好的指示意义。同时,几乎所有先兆信号都对华南降水给出了一致的错误信息,是导致华南降水预报失败的主要原因。  相似文献   

The influence of groundwater representation on hydrological simulation and its assessment using satellite‐based water storage variation     

Zhongwei Huang  Qiuhong Tang  Min‐Hui Lo  Xingcai Liu  Hui Lu  Xuejun Zhang  Guoyong Leng 《水文研究》2019,33(8):1218-1230

The interaction between surface water and groundwater is an important aspect of hydrological processes. Despite its importance, groundwater is not well represented in many land surface models. In this study, a groundwater module with consideration of surface water and groundwater dynamic interactions is incorporated into the distributed biosphere hydrological (DBH) model in the upstream of the Yellow River basin, China. Two numerical experiments are conducted using the DBH model: one with groundwater module active, namely, DBH_GW and the other without, namely, DBH_NGW. Simulations by two experiments are compared with observed river discharge and terrestrial water storage (TWS) variation from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). The results show that river discharge during the low flow season that is underestimated in the DBH_NGW has been improved by incorporating the groundwater scheme. As for the TWS, simulation in DBH_GW shows better agreement with GRACE data in terms of interannual and intraseasonal variations and annual changing trend. Furthermore, compared with DBH_GW, TWS simulated in DBH_NGW shows smaller decreases during autumn and smaller increases in spring. These results suggest that consideration of groundwater dynamics enables a more reasonable representation of TWS change by increasing TWS amplitudes and signals and as a consequence, improves river discharge simulation in the low flow seasons when groundwater is a major component in runoff. Additionally, incorporation of groundwater module also leads to wetter soil moisture and higher evapotranspiration, especially in the wet seasons.  相似文献   

A reassessment of late glacial – Holocene diatom oxygen isotope record from Lake Baikal using a geochemical mass‐balance approach     

Anson W. Mackay  George E. A. Swann  Melanie J. Leng  David W. Morley  Natalia Piotrowska  Patrick Rioual  Dustin White 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(6):627-634

We present a new palaeoenvironmental record of hydrological variability in Lake Baikal, based on re‐modelled δ¹⁸O_diatom values of diatom silica (δ¹⁸O_modelled), where the residual contaminants are identified and compensated for using electron optical imaging and whole‐sample geochemistry. δ¹⁸O_modelled interpretations are based on the balance between rivers with high δ¹⁸O values and rivers with low δ¹⁸O values. Isotopic variability is related to latitudinal differences in precipitation which feed these rivers. The δ¹⁸O_modelled record suggests that rather moist conditions prevailed in the Lake Baikal region during the latter stages of the Younger Dryas. Throughout the Holocene, episodes of low δ¹⁸O_modelled values are, in general, in good agreement with increases in percentage haematite‐stained grains in North Atlantic sediments (indicative of ice‐rafted debris events). Rivers with southerly catchments dominate fluvial input especially between c. 3.3 and 2 cal ka BP, concurrent with high precipitation in the Lake Baikal region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Environmental change over the last millennium recorded in two contrasting crater lakes in western Uganda,eastern Africa (Lakes Kasenda and Wandakara)     

David B. Ryves  Keely Mills  Ole Bennike  Klaus Peter Brodersen  Angela L. Lamb  Melanie J. Leng  James M. Russell  Immaculate Ssemmanda 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(5-6):555-569

The last millennium is a key period for understanding environmental change in eastern Africa, as there is clear evidence of marked fluctuations in climate (effective moisture) that place modern concern with future climate change in a proper context, both in terms of environmental and societal impacts and responses. Here, we compare sediment records from two small, nearby, closed crater lakes in western Uganda (Lake Kasenda and Lake Wandakara), spanning the last 700 (Wandakara) and 1200 years (Kasenda) respectively. Multiproxy analyses of chemical sedimentary parameters (including C/N ratios, δ¹³C of bulk organic matter and δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O of authigenic carbonates) and biotic remains (diatoms, aquatic macrofossils, chironomids) suggest that Kasenda has been sensitive to climate over much of this period, and has shown substantial fluctuations in conductivity, while Wandakara has a more muted response, likely due to the increasing dominance of human activity as a driver of change within the lake and catchment over the length of our record. Evidence from both records, however, supports the idea that lake levels were low from ～AD 700–1000 AD, with increasing aridity from AD 1100–1600, and brief wet phases around AD 1000 and 1400. Wetter conditions are recorded in the 1700s, but drought returned by the end of the century and into the early 1800s, becoming wetter again from the mid-1800s. Comparison with other records across eastern Africa suggests that while some events are widespread (e.g. aridity beginning ～ AD 1100), at other times there is a more complex spatial signature (e.g. in the 1200s to 1300s, and from the 1400s to 1600s). This study highlights the important role of catchment-specific factors (e.g. lakemorphometry, catchment size, and human impact) in modulating the sensitivity of proxies, and lake records, as indicators of environmental change, and potential hazards when regional inference is based on a single site or proxy.  相似文献   

Benthic foraminifera and their stable isotope composition in sediment cores from Lake Qarun,Egypt: changes in water salinity during the past ~500 years     

Ramadan H. Abu-Zied  Kevin Keatings  Roger J. Flower  Melanie J. Leng 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2011,45(2):167-182

We studied the sedimentology, benthic foraminifera, molluscs, and δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C of Ammonia tepida tests in two late Holocene sediment cores from Lake Qarun (Egypt). The cores, QARU2 (upper section, 8.2 m) and QARU4 (1.4 m), span approximately the past 500 years of sedimentation. Benthic foraminifera first appeared in the upper part of QARU2 at 314 cm depth, ca. AD 1550. This depth marks the beginning of colonization of the lake by foraminifera and indicates a change in lake water salinity, as foraminifera cannot tolerate fresh water. Initially, three species of benthic foraminifera colonized the lake, Ammonia tepida, Cribroelphidium excavatum and Cribrononion incertum. Relative abundance of these species fluctuated throughout cores QARU2 and QARU4 and highest overall faunal diversity occurred at the beginning of the twentieth century. High relative abundances of C. incertum and deformed tests are attributed to periods of greater lakewater salinity. Peaks in both δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C indicate times of higher evaporation and reduced fresh water inflow. Inferred salinity was high around AD 1700 and after AD 1990. Rapid response of climate proxy variables indicates the high sensitivity of Lake Qarun to environmental changes over the past several 100 years. Increases in lakewater Mg concentration during past evaporative events, associated with less fresh water inflow, probably provided conditions suitable for C. incertum to build its white or transparent tests. Gradual decrease of C. incertum, until its disappearance at 100 cm depth ca. AD 1890, indicates a more persistent trend in lake water chemistry. Higher concentrations of dissolved sulphates were the likely cause of this species disappearance. Recent, twentieth-century sediments were deposited under optimal salinity (37‰) for benthic fauna, but further environmental changes are indicated by the decrease or disappearance of several benthic foraminifera and mollusc species. Intermittent hypoxia in the lake’s bottom waters, caused by cultural eutrophication, may account for these most recent changes.  相似文献   

2011年1月贵州冻雨天气成因分析     

李丽丽  肖天贵  黄金全  冷宇 《气象科技》2013,41(6):1116-1121

利用2011年1月NCEP1°×1°6 h再分析资料和贵州省气象局提供的84个地面气象站1970—2011年冬季（12月至次年2月）资料对贵州省2011年1月持续的低温冻雨天气进行了气候统计和诊断分析。此次冻雨天气范围广,强度大,34个站气温达到40年来历史同期最低值。此次过程中的亚欧大陆环流异常的主要表现是乌拉尔山阻塞高压阶段性活跃,在里海槽前西南气流的持续补充下两次崩溃三次重建,在脊前形成深厚低压中心,导致频繁有冷空气南下影响贵州地区。  相似文献