The Energy Balance Experiment EBEX-2000. Part I: overview and energy balance   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Steven P. Oncley  Thomas Foken  Roland Vogt  Wim Kohsiek  H. A. R. DeBruin  Christian Bernhofer  Andreas Christen  Eva van Gorsel  David Grantz  Christian Feigenwinter  Irene Lehner  Claudia Liebethal  Heping Liu  Matthias Mauder  Andrea Pitacco  Luis Ribeiro  Tamas Weidinger 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,123(1):1-28

An overview of the Energy Balance Experiment (EBEX-2000) is given. This experiment studied the ability of state-of-the-art measurements to close the surface energy balance over a surface (a vegetative canopy with large evapotranspiration) where closure has been difficult to obtain. A flood-irrigated cotton field over uniform terrain was used, though aerial imagery and direct flux measurements showed that the surface still was inhomogeneous. All major terms of the surface energy balance were measured at nine sites to characterize the spatial variability across the field. Included in these observations was an estimate of heat storage in the plant canopy. The resultant imbalance still was 10%, which exceeds the estimated measurement error. We speculate that horizontal advection in the layer between the canopy top and our flux measurement height may cause this imbalance, though our estimates of this term using our measurements resulted in values less than what would be required to balance the budget. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation  相似文献   

A study on combining global and regional climate model results for generating climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the Netherlands   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

G. Lenderink  A. van Ulden  B. van den Hurk  F. Keller 《Climate Dynamics》2007,29(2-3):157-176

Climate scenarios for the Netherlands are constructed by combining information from global and regional climate models employing a simplified, conceptual framework of three sources (levels) of uncertainty impacting on predictions of the local climate. In this framework, the first level of uncertainty is determined by the global radiation balance, resulting in a range of the projected changes in the global mean temperature. On the regional (1,000–5,000 km) scale, the response of the atmospheric circulation determines the second important level of uncertainty. The third level of uncertainty, acting mainly on a local scale of 10 (and less) to 1,000 km, is related to the small-scale processes, like for example those acting in atmospheric convection, clouds and atmospheric meso-scale circulations—processes that play an important role in extreme events which are highly relevant for society. Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools to quantify the first two levels of uncertainty, while high resolution regional climate models (RCMs) are more suitable to quantify the third level. Along these lines, results of an ensemble of RCMs, driven by only two GCM boundaries and therefore spanning only a rather narrow range in future climate predictions, are rescaled to obtain a broader uncertainty range. The rescaling is done by first disentangling the climate change response in the RCM simulations into a part related to the circulation, and a residual part which is related to the global temperature rise. Second, these responses are rescaled using the range of the predictions of global temperature change and circulation change from five GCMs. These GCMs have been selected on their ability to simulate the present-day circulation, in particular over Europe. For the seasonal means, the rescaled RCM results obey the range in the GCM ensemble using a high and low emission scenario. Thus, the rescaled RCM results are consistent with the GCM results for the means, while adding information on the small scales and the extremes. The method can be interpreted as a combined statistical–dynamical downscaling approach, with the statistical relations based on regional model output.  相似文献   

Application of GIS and logistic regression to fossil pollen data in modelling present and past spatial distribution of the Colombian savanna     

Suzette G. A. Flantua  John H. van Boxel  Henry Hooghiemstra  John van Smaalen 《Climate Dynamics》2007,29(7-8):697-712

Climate changes affect the abundance, geographic extent, and floral composition of vegetation, which are reflected in the pollen rain. Sediment cores taken from lakes and peat bogs can be analysed for their pollen content. The fossil pollen records provide information on the temporal changes in climate and palaeo-environments. Although the complexity of the variables influencing vegetation distribution requires a multi-dimensional approach, only a few research projects have used GIS to analyse pollen data. This paper presents a new approach to palynological data analysis by combining GIS and spatial modelling. Eastern Colombia was chosen as a study area owing to the migration of the forest–savanna boundary since the last glacial maximum, and the availability of pollen records. Logistic regression has been used to identify the climatic variables that determine the distribution of savanna and forest in eastern Colombia. These variables were used to create a predictive land-cover model, which was subsequently implemented into a GIS to perform spatial analysis on the results. The palynological data from the study area were incorporated into the GIS. Reconstructed maps of past vegetation distribution by interpolation showed a new approach of regional multi-site data synthesis related to climatic parameters. The logistic regression model resulted in a map with 85.7% predictive accuracy, which is considered useful for the reconstruction of future and past land-cover distributions. The suitability of palynological GIS application depends on the number of pollen sites, the distribution of the pollen sites over the area of interest, and the degree of overlap of the age ranges of the pollen records.  相似文献   

A comparative analysis of three habitat suitability models for commercial yield estimation of Tapes philippinarum in a North Adriatic coastal lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Italy)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Simone Vincenzi  Graziano Caramori  Remigio Rossi  Giulio A. De Leo   《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,55(10-12):579

Habitat Suitability (HS) models have been extensively used by conservation planners to estimate the spatial distribution of threatened species and of species of commercial interest. In this work we compare three HS models for the estimation of commercial yield potential and the identification of suitable sites for Tapes philippinarum rearing in the Sacca di Goro lagoon (Italy) on the basis of six environmental factors. The habitat suitability index (HSI) is based on expert opinion while the habitat suitability conditional (HSC) is calibrated on observational data. The habitat suitability mixed (HSM) model is a two-part model combining expert knowledge and regression analysis: the first component of the model uses logistic regression to identify the areas in which clams are likely to be present; the second part applies the same parameter-specific suitability functions of the HSI model only in the areas previously identified as productive by the logistic component.The HS models were validated on an independent data set and estimates of potential yield of the Goro lagoon were compared. The effectiveness of the three approaches is then discussed in terms of predicted yield and identification of suitable sites for farming.  相似文献   

Seismic microzonation of Dehradun City using geophysical and geotechnical characteristics in the upper 30 m of soil column     

A. K. Mahajan  Siefko Slob  Rajiv Ranjan  Rob Sporry  P. K. Champati ray  Cees J. van Westen 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(4):355-370

The understanding of geotechnical characteristics of near-surface material is of fundamental interest in seismic microzonation. Shear wave velocity (Vs), one of the most important soil properties for soil response modeling, has been evaluated through seismic profiling using the multichannel analysis of surface waves in the city of Dehradun situated along the foothills of northwest Himalaya. Fifty sites in the city have been investigated with survey lines between 72 and 96 m in length. Multiple 1-D and interpolated 2-D profiles have been generated up to a depth of 30–40 m. The Vs were used in the SHAKE2000 software in combination with seismic input motion of the recent Chamoli earthquake to obtain site response and amplification spectra. The estimated Vs are higher in the northern part of the study area (i.e., 200–700 m/s from the surface to a depth of about 30 m) as compared to the south and southwestern parts of the city (i.e., 180–400 m/s for the same depth range). The response spectra suggest that spectral acceleration values for two-story structures are three to eight times higher than peak ground acceleration at bedrock. The analysis also suggests peak amplification at 3–4, 2–2.5, and 1–1.5 Hz in the northern, central, and south-southwestern parts of the city, respectively. The spatial distributions of Vs and spectral accelerations provide valuable information for the seismic microzonation in different parts of the urban area of Dehradun.  相似文献   

Circulation statistics and climate change in Central Europe: PRUDENCE simulations and observations     

Aad van Ulden  Geert Lenderink  Bart van den Hurk  Erik van Meijgaard 《Climatic change》2007,81(1):179-192

PRUDENCE simulations of the climate in Central Europe are analysed with respect to mean temperature, mean precipitation and three monthly mean geostrophic circulation indices. The three global models show important circulation biases in the control climate, in particular in the strength of the west-circulations in winter and summer. The nine regional models inherit much of the circulation biases from their host model, especially in winter. In summer, the regional models show a larger spread in circulation statistics, depending on nesting procedures and other model characteristics. Simulated circulation biases appear to have a significant inluence on simulated temperature and precipitation. The PRUDENCE ensemble appears to be biased towards warmer and wetter than observed circulations in winter, and towards warmer and dryer circulations in summer. A2-scenario simulations show important circulation changes, which have a significant impact on changes in the distributions of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. It is likely that interactions between land–surface processes and atmospheric circulation play an important role in the simulated changes in the summer climate in Central Europe.  相似文献   

Hard X-ray states and radio emission in GRS 1915+105   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M.Klein-Wolt  R. P.Fender  G. G.Pooley  T.Belloni  S.Migliari  E. H.Morgan  M.van der Klis 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,331(3):745-764

We compare simultaneous Ryle Telescope radio and Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer X-ray observations of the galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105, using the classification of the X-ray behaviour in terms of three states as previously established. We find a strong (one-to-one) relation between radio oscillation events and series of spectrally hard states in the X-ray light curves, if the hard states are longer than ∼100 s and are 'well separated' from each other. In all other cases the source shows either low-level or high-level radio emission, but no radio oscillation events. During intervals when the source stays in the hard spectral state for periods of days to months, the radio behaviour is quite different; during some of these intervals a quasi-continuous jet is formed with an almost flat synchrotron spectrum extending to at least the near-infrared. Based on the similarities between the oscillation profiles at different wavelengths, we suggest a scenario which can explain most of the complex X-ray:radio behaviour of GRS 1915+105. We compare this behaviour with that of other black hole sources, and challenge previous reports of a relation between spectrally soft X-ray states and the radio emission.  相似文献   

Byssal detachment underestimates tolerance of mussels to toxic compounds     

Rajagopal S  van der Velde G  van der Gaag M  Jenner HA 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(1):20-29

Mussels are sedentary organisms attached to solid substrata by means of byssus threads. Mussels detached from their substratum tend to reattach by producing new byssus threads. Therefore, in bioassays using mussels, if the test animals are in an unattached status, increased byssogenic activity would expose their soft body parts to the toxic compound used. We test the tolerance of two mussel species (Mytilopsis leucophaeata and Mytilus edulis) to an oxidizing biocide (chlorine) and show that detached mussels are 24-28% less tolerant than byssally attached ones. Detached mussels also showed higher oxygen consumption, filtration rate, foot activity, byssus thread production and byssogenesis index, parameters which are associated with valve opening. A review of literature showed that most of the published data on toxicity against heavy metals and biocides are generated using unattached mussels. The data, therefore, represent an underestimation of the toxicity of the tested compound. Correction data are presented for chlorine tolerance of Dreissena polymorpha, Mytilopsis leucophaeata and Mytilus edulis. The present study suggests the importance of maintaining mussels in their attached status, while undertaking toxicity bioassays.  相似文献   

Accumulation of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in estuarine and marine food chains: field measurements and model calculations     

Veltman K  Hendriks J  Huijbregts M  Leonards P  van den Heuvel-Greve M  Vethaak D 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,50(10):1085-1102

Food chain accumulation of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in estuarine and marine environments is compared to model estimations and fresh water field data. The food chain consists of herbivores, detritivores and primary and secondary carnivores i.e. fish, fish-eating birds and marine mammals. Accumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls is predicted well by OMEGA for herbi-detritivores and primary and secondary carnivorous fish. Ratios are similar to those found for fresh water species. Accumulation ratios for fish-eating birds and mammals are overestimated by the model, which is attributed partly to biotransformation of meta-para unsubstituted congeners. Additionally, birds may feed in other less polluted areas. For brominated diphenylethers (BDE) accumulation patterns are highly species and congener specific. Accumulation depends on both K(ow) and metabolization capacities. BDE47 is the predominant congener in lower trophic levels. For marine birds and mammals accumulation ratios of BDE99 and 100 are similar to or higher than ratios of persistent PCBs.  相似文献   

Preliminary evidence of a link between surface soil properties and the arsenic content of shallow groundwater in Bangladesh     

A. van Geen  Z. Aziz  A. Horneman  B. Weinman  R.K. Dhar  Y. Zheng  S. Goodbred  R. Versteeg  A.A. Seddique  M.A. Hoque  K.M. Ahmed 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):157

The extremely heterogeneous distribution of As in Bangladesh groundwater has hampered efforts to identify with certainty the mechanisms that lead to extensive mobilization of this metalloid in reducing aquifers. We show here on the basis of a high-resolution transect of soil and aquifer properties collected in Araihazar, Bangladesh, that revealing tractable associations between As concentrations in shallow (< 20 m) groundwater with other geological, hydrological, and geochemical features requires a lateral sampling resolution of 10–100 m. Variations in the electromagnetic conductivity of surface soils (5–40 mS/m) within a 500 m × 200 m area are documented with 560 EM31 measurements. The results are compared with a detailed section of groundwater As concentrations (5–150 μg/L) and other aquifer properties obtained with a simple sampling device, “the needle-sampler”, that builds on the local drilling technology. By invoking complementary observations obtained in the same area and in other regions of Bangladesh, we postulate that local groundwater recharge throughout permeable sandy soils plays a major role in regulating the As content of shallow aquifers by diluting the flux of As released from reducing sediments.  相似文献