Variation in copepod species assemblage distributions: The utility of the log-normal approach     

Peter B. Ortner  Leonard C. Hill  Shailer R. Cummings 《Marine pollution bulletin》1982,13(6):195-197

Pelagic copepod species distributions were found to vary in relation to an environmental gradient. As suggested by Gray, systematic changes were noted in the skewness of the log-normal. However, no systematic changes in the standard of deviation of the log-normal were noted. The data indicate that such assemblages ill-fit Preston's ‘canonical’ expectation. Further, analysis of changes in the evenness function yielded similar conclusions.  相似文献   

Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support     

Ana Lopez  Emma B. Suckling  Leonard A. Smith 《Climatic change》2014,122(4):555-566

Pattern scaling offers the promise of exploring spatial details of the climate system response to anthropogenic climate forcings without their full simulation by state-of-the-art Global Climate Models. The circumstances in which pattern scaling methods are capable of delivering on this promise are explored by quantifying its performance in an idealized setting. Given a large ensemble that is assumed to sample the full range of variability and provide quantitative decision-relevant information, the soundness of applying the pattern scaling methodology to generate decision relevant climate scenarios is explored. Pattern scaling is not expected to reproduce its target exactly, of course, and its generic limitations have been well documented since it was first proposed. In this work, using as a particular example the quantification of the risk of heat waves in Southern Europe, it is shown that the magnitude of the error in the pattern scaled estimates can be significant enough to disqualify the use of this approach in quantitative decision-support. This suggests that future application of pattern scaling in climate science should provide decision makers not just a restatement of the assumptions made, but also evidence that the methodology is adequate for purpose in practice for the case under consideration.  相似文献   

Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada     

Lucinda J. Leonard  Garry C. Rogers  Stéphane Mazzotti 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):237-274

We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40–80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1–15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10–30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1–5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.  相似文献   

Assessing PAH exposure in feral finfish from the Northwest Atlantic     

Hellou J  Leonard J  Collier TK  Ariese F 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(4):433-441

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations were examined in small finfish (<30 cm) represented by capelin, sand lance, American plaice, yellowtail flounder and herring collected opportunistically in various NAFO divisions. Analyses were performed on whole fish and in a portion of the samples; concentrations in internal organs were compared to the rest of the carcass. The effect of pool size, size differences within and between species, lipid content and location were examined to interpret PAH concentrations. Measurements were carried out before the development of the Hibernia oil fields and represent baseline levels for future comparison. Limits in assessing future risk that could be due to discharges of produced water or accidental oil spills are also discussed. Increasing knowledge on the bioaccumulation of PAH, on the production of bile metabolites, the formation of DNA-adducts and of the potential toxic effects associated with PAH will lead to better ecosystem management and protection for future generations.  相似文献