2014年中国气候概况   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

侯威  邹旭凯  王朋岭  叶殿秀  周兵  黄大鹏  李莹  赵琳  王有民  朱晓金  赵珊珊  王阳  钟海玲 《气象》2015,41(4):480-488

2014年,全国平均气温较常年偏高0.5℃,与1999年并列为1961年以来第六暖年;四季气温均偏高。全国平均降水量636.2 mm,接近常年,比2013年偏少3%;降水时空分布不均,辽宁、北京和河北偏少明显,冬、春、夏三季降水量均接近常年同期,秋季偏多。华南前汛期开始早、雨量多;西南雨季开始晚、结束早、雨量少;梅雨区降水量南多北少,江淮出现空梅;华北雨季不明显,出现空汛;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚、雨量多。夏季副热带高压脊线位置偏南,南海夏季风爆发晚,东亚夏季风强度略偏弱。2014年,我国气候属正常年景,极端天气气候事件少于2013年,暴雨洪涝、干旱等灾害偏轻,因灾造成死亡人数和受灾面积明显偏少,气象灾害属于偏轻年份。  相似文献   

强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展   总被引：23，自引：8，他引：15       下载免费PDF全文

郑永光  周康辉  盛杰  林隐静  田付友  唐文苑  蓝渝  朱文剑 《应用气象学报》2015,26(6):641-657

强对流天气预报业务包括监测、分析、预报、预警和检验等方面。对流初生识别、对流系统强度识别和对流天气类型识别等监测技术取得新进展,综合多源资料的监测技术已应用于中国气象局中央气象台业务。对流系统的触发、发展和维持机制等获得了新认识,我国不同类型强对流天气及其环境条件统计气候特征、分析规范及相应业务产品等为业务预报提供了必要基础和技术支撑。光流法、多尺度追踪技术以及应用模糊逻辑方法的临近预报技术等有明显进展,融合短时预报技术得到广泛应用,对流可分辨高分辨率数值 (集合) 预报及其后处理产品预报试验取得了显著成效,基于数值 (集合) 预报应用模糊逻辑方法的分类强对流天气短期预报技术为业务预报提供了技术支撑。强对流天气综合监测和多尺度自适应临近预报技术、多尺度分析技术以及融合短时预报技术、发展并应用模糊逻辑等方法的、基于高分辨率数值 (集合) 模式的区分不同强度等级和极端性的分类强对流天气精细化 (概率) 预报技术等是未来发展的主要方向。  相似文献   

重庆“5.6”强风雹天气过程成因分析   总被引：8，自引：4，他引：8  

陈贵川  谌芸  乔林  刘德  李强  张亚萍  王文芳  张焱 《气象》2011,37(7):871-879

利用常规观测、NCEP分析场及雷达、自动站等资料对重庆＂5.6＂强风雹天气的成因进行了分析,结果表明：冷锋和副热带高空急流在风雹发生地近乎重叠的配置结构促进了次级环流的形成并有利于上升运动的强烈发展;风暴天气发生前,下垫面强烈加热、低层增温增湿、中高层干冷对大气对流不稳定性增强的作用显著;对流有效位能（CAPE）、K指数、SI指数高值区边缘的强指数梯度区、对流抑制（CIN）的小值区以及较强的垂直风切变对大风冰雹的预报有重要的指示意义;雷达回波显示多单体风暴具有三体散射、弱回波区等冰雹回波特征,中层径向辐合和反射率因子核心的反复上升下降也是形成地面大风和冰雹的重要特征;四川盆地东部东北西南向山脉对冷空气的移动有阻挡作用,山脉之间的槽状地形为多单体风暴的持续发展保留了较大的空间,明月山南麓的地形起到了强迫抬升和触发的作用,由于地形的阻挡形成狭管效应,加强了下击暴流形成的地面大风,是形成11级大风的重要因素。  相似文献   

On some applications of invariant manifolds     

Xi-Yun Hou  Lin Liu  Yu-Hui Zhao 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2011,11(1)

Taking transfer orbits of a collinear libration point probe, a lunar probe and an interplanetary probe as examples, some applications of stable and unstable invariant manifolds of the restricted three-body problem are discussed. Research shows that transfer energy is not necessarily conserved when invariant manifolds are used. For the cases in which the transfer energy is conserved, the cost is a much longer transfer time.  相似文献   

Associations of decimetric type Ⅲ bursts with coronal mass ejections and Hα flares     

Yuan Ma  De-Yu Wang  Jun Lin    Shuo Dai  Xue-Fei Zhang National Astronomical Observatories of China / Yunnan Astronomical Observatory  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Kunming  China Purple Mountain Observatory  Nanjing  China Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics  Cambridge  MA  USA 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2010,10(5)

We present a statistical study of decimetric type Ⅲ radio bursts,coronal mass ejections(CMEs),and Hα flares observed in the period from July 2000 to March2005.In total,we investigated 395 decimetric type Ⅲ radio burst events,21% of which showed apparent correlation to CMEs that were associated with Hα flares.We noticed that the Hα flares which were strongly associated with CMEs were gradual events,and82% of them took place before CMEs appeared in the field of view of LASCO C2;that most of the CME-associated radio bursts started in the frequency range around750 MHz with a frequency drifting rate of several hundred MHz s-1,of which both positive and negative ones were recognized; and that the correlation of type Ⅲ radio bursts to CMEs without associated flares is fairly vague,less than 9%.  相似文献   

Emulating the OPAL equation of state     

Hsiao-Hsuan Lin  Werner Däppen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2010,328(1-2):175-178

The equation of state for the structure of the Sun and stars has to be precise to allow comparisons with observations, i.e., helioseismic inversions of thermodynamic quantities. Among the two of the most popular formalisms are (1) the OPAL equation of state developed at Livermore and (2) the Mihalas-Hummer-Däppen (MHD) equation of state. While OPAL has a solid theoretical foundation, and matches the observational data better, the MHD formalism is more intuitive, easy to realize, and has the possibility of adjustable parameters. Furthermore, it an open-source product in contrast to the proprietary OPAL. Recently a version of MHD has been obtained by including the so-called “Plank-Larkin partition function” and by adding scattering-state terms. The resulting formalism matches OPAL rather well. Here, we report on the next logical step, the implementation of this MHD upgrade into the simple and popular CEFF equation of state. Such an implementation will make it a flexible and convenient tool, allowing an approximative on-line implementation of OPAL in solar and stellar models.  相似文献   

北太平洋海表面高度(SSH) 与风应力变化的关系     

黄琳  孙佳  杨逸秋  袁逸凡 《海洋与湖沼》2013,44(1):111-119

利用1958-2008年的北太平洋海表面高度和风应力资料,并与ENSO和PDO指数进行相关分析.结果发现,风应力及其经向分量主要通过季节振动影响海表面高度(SSH)的年周期变化,纬向风应力主要通过多年振动影响SSH的ENSO和PDO周期.纬向风应力和SSH均以黑潮延伸体主轴为界,两侧呈现出相反的升降趋势,SSH为北降南升,纬向风应力南降北升.风应力和SSH升降趋势相同,均表现为“上升—下降—上升”的变化特征.在地形变化剧烈、等深线南北分布的海区,西风增强会导致SSH升高,且西侧升高较为明显.北风增强将导致北太平洋西岸SSH升高,东岸SSH降低.  相似文献   

A dual site study of the rainwater chemistry within the Western Pacific region     

K. M. Wai  S. H. Wang  P. A. Tanner  N. H. Lin 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,57(1):85-103

The two-year (1999–2000) rainwater chemistry at two monitoring sites in nearby coastal areas [Taiwan (TW) and Hong Kong (HK)] within the Western Pacific region has been studied. The volume weighted average pH values for the entire sampling period in TW and HK were 4.6 and 4.2, respectively. Sea salt Na⁺ and Cl⁻ were the most abundant species in the TW samples but and H⁺ were the most abundant in the HK samples. The sea salt and concentrations at TW were higher than those at HK both in the cold and warm seasons. Chloride depletion was minimal in the rainwater samples at both sites. Non seasalt- was associated with . Under the influence of the East Asian Winter Monsoon, the back-trajectory studies revealed that elevated anthropogenic species concentrations were associated with trajectories (1) very near to the continental boundary layer of Mainland China; or (2) along the coastline of Eastern China where large cities/industrial areas are located or (3) passing through the region of stagnant air over Northern/Eastern China. The lowest anthropogenic and crustal species concentrations measured in HK are associated with the summer monsoon and are attributed not only to the clean marine air masses but also to the relatively low SO₂, NO _x and NH₃ emissions from the South/ South East Asian countries, as well as infrequent biomass burning activities and wet scavenging at sources during the summer months. Approaching tropical cyclones led to the lowest pH values (4.2 in TW and 3.8 in HK) amongst the other weather categories. The findings here have been compared with other studies within East Asia and elsewhere.  相似文献   

南海热带气旋频数的气候预测方法     

梁健  林永堂  谢定升  林镇国  林少冰 《气象科技》2007,35(5):626-630

利用前期北半球500 hPa高度场格点资料、海温场(SST)格点资料,计算与后期热带气旋(TC)发生频数的相关系数,分析两个相关场显著相关区的统计特征,进一步分析其天气气候学意义和物理意义。选取若干相关系数高的格点,组成组合因子,建立二项式曲线方程,对影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋,做年、月频数预测。预测试验和检验表明,二项式曲线预测模型有较高的拟合能力,在影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋年、月频数预测中,有较好的效果。  相似文献   

建立天空场景的模拟算法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾大权  范茵  许屏  龚琳 《气象科技》2007,35(2):292-294

建立真实感的天空场景,在环境仿真和气象现象模拟中,有着极其重要的应用价值,也是计算机可视化研究中的难题。首先通过确定色彩层次模型,改进基于中点的变位方法生成基本云图,然后使用基于图像的方法进行云图映射,最后融合气象信息要素等过程生成天空背景,并采用光照叠加、背景合成及色彩调整等方法,产生千姿百态、形象逼真的天空场景图。可在多种气象现象的模拟仿真,纹理贴图的产生以及气象信息可视化系统的开发等方面发挥重要的作用。  相似文献