Stress transfer in earthquakes, hazard estimation and ensemble forecasting: Inferences from numerical simulations     

John B. Rundle  Paul B. Rundle  Andrea Donnellan  P. Li  W. Klein  Gleb Morein  D.L. Turcotte  Lisa Grant   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):109

Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space–time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake on one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress on other faults, thereby delaying activity on those faults. In this paper, we describe the current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model for all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations can be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the “official” forecasts of the WGCEP, and the “research-quality” forecasts that we discuss here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of future problems and issues related to the development of ensemble earthquake hazard estimation and forecasting techniques.  相似文献   

Vertical distribution of stable isotopic composition in atmospheric water vapor and subsurface water in grassland and forest sites, eastern Mongolia     

Maki Tsujimura  Lisa Sasaki  Atsuko Sugimoto  Dai Matsushima  Mijiddorj Saandar 《Journal of Hydrology》2007,333(1):35-46

  相似文献   

AXIOM: advanced X-ray imaging of the magnetosphere   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Graziella Branduardi-Raymont  Steve F. Sembay  Jonathan P. Eastwood  David G. Sibeck  Tony A. Abbey  Patrick Brown  Jenny A. Carter  Chris M. Carr  Colin Forsyth  Dhiren Kataria  Steve Kemble  Steve E. Milan  Chris J. Owen  Lisa Peacocke  Andy M. Read  Andrew J. Coates  Michael R. Collier  Stan W. H. Cowley  Andrew N. Fazakerley  George W. Fraser  Geraint H. Jones  Rosine Lallement  Mark Lester  F. Scott Porter  Tim K. Yeoman 《Experimental Astronomy》2012,33(2-3):403-443

Planetary plasma and magnetic field environments can be studied in two complementary ways—by in situ measurements, or by remote sensing. While the former provide precise information about plasma behaviour, instabilities and dynamics on local scales, the latter offers the global view necessary to understand the overall interaction of the magnetospheric plasma with the solar wind. Some parts of the Earth’s magnetosphere have been remotely sensed, but the majority remains unexplored by this type of measurements. Here we propose a novel and more elegant approach employing remote X-ray imaging techniques, which are now possible thanks to the relatively recent discovery of solar wind charge exchange X-ray emissions in the vicinity of the Earth’s magnetosphere. In this article we describe how an appropriately designed and located X-ray telescope, supported by simultaneous in situ measurements of the solar wind, can be used to image the dayside magnetosphere, magnetosheath and bow shock, with a temporal and spatial resolution sufficient to address several key outstanding questions concerning how the solar wind interacts with the Earth’s magnetosphere on a global level. Global images of the dayside magnetospheric boundaries require vantage points well outside the magnetosphere. Our studies have led us to propose ‘AXIOM: Advanced X-ray Imaging of the Magnetosphere’, a concept mission using a Vega launcher with a LISA Pathfinder-type Propulsion Module to place the spacecraft in a Lissajous orbit around the Earth–Moon L1 point. The model payload consists of an X-ray Wide Field Imager, capable of both imaging and spectroscopy, and an in situ plasma and magnetic field measurement package. This package comprises a Proton-Alpha Sensor, designed to measure the bulk properties of the solar wind, an Ion Composition Analyser, to characterise the minor ion populations in the solar wind that cause charge exchange emission, and a Magnetometer, designed to measure the strength and direction of the solar wind magnetic field. We also show simulations that demonstrate how the proposed X-ray telescope design is capable of imaging the predicted emission from the dayside magnetosphere with the sensitivity and cadence required to achieve the science goals of the mission.  相似文献   

How Well Do Restored Intertidal Oyster Reefs Support Key Biogeochemical Properties in a Coastal Lagoon?     

Lisa G. Chambers  Stephanie A. Gaspar  Christian J. Pilato  Havalend E. Steinmuller  Kevin J. McCarthy  Paul E. Sacks  Linda J. Walters 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(3):784-799

The restoration of dead/degraded oyster reefs is increasingly pursued worldwide to reestablish harvestable populations or renew ecosystem services. Evidence suggests that oysters can improve water quality, but less is known about the role of associated benthic sediments in promoting biogeochemical processes, such as nutrient cycling and burial. There is also limited understanding of if, or how long postrestoration, a site functions like a natural reef. This study investigated key biogeochemical properties (e.g., physiochemical properties, nutrient pools, microbial community size and activity) in the sediments of dead reefs; 1-, 4-, and 7-year-old restored reefs; and natural reference reefs of the eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in Mosquito Lagoon (FL, USA). Results indicated that most of the measured biogeochemical properties (dissolved organic carbon (C), NH₄ ⁺, total C, total nitrogen (N), and the activity of major extracellular enzymes involved in C, N, and phosphorus (P) cycling) increased significantly by 1-year postrestoration, relative to dead reefs, and then remained fairly constant as the reefs continued to age. Few differences were observed in biogeochemical properties between restored reefs of any age (1 to 7 years) and natural reference reefs. Variability among reefs of the same treatment category was often correlated with differences in the number of live oysters, reef thickness, and/or the availability of C and N in the sediments. Overall, this study demonstrates the role of live intertidal oyster reefs as biogeochemical hot spots for nutrient cycling and burial and the rapidity (within 1 year) with which biogeochemical properties can be reestablished following successful restoration.  相似文献   

The parent bodies of CR chondrites and their secondary history     

Trygve Prestgard  Pierre Beck  Lydie Bonal  Jolantha Eschrig  Jérôme Gattacceca  Corinne Sonzogni  Lisa Krämer Ruggiu 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2023,58(8):1117-1148

Renazzo-type (CR) chondrites are a relatively rare group of carbonaceous chondrites with the vast majority having escaped thermal alteration. This means that CRs are composed of relatively unprocessed material, depending on the extent of aqueous alteration they have experienced. Hydration in CRs ranges from incipient alteration of matrix glass, up to nearly complete replacement of the rock by hydration products. The extent of secondary processes is often difficult to assess in these meteorites, due to their heterogeneity and diversity of alteration products. Yet, this is crucial in order to understand the extent of geological processing that occurred on the primary parent body. Additionally, the parent asteroids of CRs remain a mystery, mainly because terrestrial oxyhydroxide signatures dominate the reflectance spectra of CRs. In this work, we have conducted optical and IR reflectance and transmission spectra of 25 CR chondrites in order to (i) better evaluate the extent of aqueous alteration that occurred on the CR parent body, and (ii) find possible parent body candidates. Terrestrial oxyhydroxides were removed from 12 samples, as these tend to interfere with the optical-IR spectra of CRs. Our results suggest, among other, that (i) aqueous alteration in most of our CRs was limited to the matrix and (ii) most CRs may stem from a continuum of X-to-C complex asteroids, depending on their extent of aqueous alteration. More specifically, the endmembers being Xk/Xn types and Cgh/Ch types. This has strong implication in regard to what we can expect from the Psyche mission.  相似文献   

Motivating mitigation: when health matters more than climate change     

Nada Petrovic  Jaime Madrigano  Lisa Zaval 《Climatic change》2014,126(1-2):245-254

  相似文献   

Evaluation of Methane Sources in Groundwater in Northeastern Pennsylvania   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lisa J. Molofsky  John A. Connor  Albert S. Wylie  Tom Wagner  Shahla K. Farhat 《Ground water》2013,51(3):333-349

Testing of 1701 water wells in northeastern Pennsylvania shows that methane is ubiquitous in groundwater, with higher concentrations observed in valleys vs. upland areas and in association with calcium‐sodium‐bicarbonate, sodium‐bicarbonate, and sodium‐chloride rich waters—indicating that, on a regional scale, methane concentrations are best correlated to topographic and hydrogeologic features, rather than shale‐gas extraction. In addition, our assessment of isotopic and molecular analyses of hydrocarbon gases in the Dimock Township suggest that gases present in local water wells are most consistent with Middle and Upper Devonian gases sampled in the annular spaces of local gas wells, as opposed to Marcellus Production gas. Combined, these findings suggest that the methane concentrations in Susquehanna County water wells can be explained without the migration of Marcellus shale gas through fractures, an observation that has important implications for understanding the nature of risks associated with shale‐gas extraction.  相似文献   

Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies     

Nicholas A. Som  Nicolas P. Zégre  Lisa M. Ganio  Arne E. Skaugset 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):134-143

Abstract

Hydrological data may be temporally autocorrelated requiring autoregressive process parameters to be estimated. Current statistical methods for hydrological change detection in paired watershed studies rely on prediction intervals, but the current form of prediction intervals does not include all appropriate sources of variation. Corrected prediction intervals for the analysis of paired watershed study data that include variation associated with covariance and linear model parameter estimation are presented. We provide an example of their application to data from the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study located in the western Cascade foothills of Southern Oregon, USA. Research implications of using the correct prediction limits and incorporating the estimation uncertainty of autoregressive process parameters are discussed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Som, N.A., Zégre, N.P., Ganio, L.M. and Skaugset, A.E., 2012. Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 134–143.  相似文献   

Interpreting amenities,envisioning the future: common ground and conflict in North Carolina’s rural coastal communities     

Noëlle Boucquey  Lisa M. Campbell  Gabriel Cumming  Zoë A. Meletis  Carla Norwood  Joshua Stoll 《GeoJournal》2012,77(1):83-101

This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about the implications of rural change and amenity migration for members of diverse rural communities. We engage with recent amenity migration and political ecology literature that focuses on social constructions of nature and landscapes, and how these constructions affect the attitudes and opinions of community members. We use our case study of a mail-based survey in Down East, North Carolina to suggest that the ways in which people conceptualize the particular ‘natures’ and landscapes of a place matters in terms of shaping people’s attitudes with respect to ongoing processes of change. We find that people’s opinions about environment, culture, and land use are often superficially similar but that when conflicts arise or particular actions are considered, substantial differences in people’s underlying conceptual frameworks are revealed. In particular we find that despite widespread shared appreciation of the environment and culture Down East, differing interpretations of these key terms lead to potential misunderstandings and land use planning challenges.  相似文献   

Threshold of tolerance model: strategy for international travel     

Deborah Meyer  Lisa Robyn Barnes  Anton Kriz 《GeoJournal》2014,79(5):557-563

The purpose of this research is to investigate what factors influence the management of International Business Air Travel (IBAT). The researchers interviewed 34 business travellers, travel organisers and executives involved in IBAT from ten organisations in differing industries, in Australia. It was found that there are a multitude of factors influencing IBAT management, including professionalism and job satisfaction of travellers and the achievement of organisational goals such as carrying out successful international ventures or operating effectively in international markets. From the findings a strategic model was developed called the Threshold of Tolerance Model—which illustrates the potential point where both organisational goals are most likely to be met and where IBAT is most likely to be well managed for both travellers and organisations.  相似文献