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71.
The areas of the Iberian Peninsula with Mediterranean climate are characterised by rainfall irregularity. Standard statistical estimation methods provide a limited insight of all the dimensions of such irregularity. Based on different techniques to describe the inter-annual irregularity of rainfall, the authors develop a new method: the disparity indices. These indices are then applied to several historical rainfall series (dating from the end of the nineteenth century up to the present) from the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Similar rainfall irregularity patterns are found in all weather stations in the studied area, confirming their belonging to the same climatic region. The results indicate a relative stability during the first third of the twentieth century, coinciding with a period of low precipitation and a progressive increase during the last three decades. The use of a new index named specific disparity index has proven be useful in highlighting the irregularity within the rainfall series at each meteorological station. This new index could contribute to monitor future changes in precipitation within the general framework of research on climate change. Although Mediterranean ecosystems are adapted to important fluctuations in the rainfall regime, this increase in irregularity may affect rivers, wetlands and the hygrophytic vegetation. 相似文献
72.
Marcelo Zeri Jos�� Francisco Oliveira-J��nior Gustavo Bastos Lyra 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,113(3-4):139-152
Time series of pollutants and weather variables measured at four sites in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 2002 and 2004, were used to characterize temporal and spatial relationships of air pollution. Concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) were compared to national and international standards. The annual median concentration of PM10 was higher than the standard set by the World Health Organization (WHO) on all sites and the 24?h means exceeded the standards on several occasions on two sites. SO2 and CO did not exceed the limits, but the daily maximum of CO in one of the stations was 27% higher on weekends compared to weekdays, due to increased activity in a nearby Convention Center. Air temperature and vapor pressure deficit have both presented the highest correlations with pollutant??s concentrations. The concentrations of SO2 and CO were not correlated between sites, suggesting that local sources are more important to those pollutants compared to PM10. The time series of pollutants and air temperature were decomposed in time and frequency by wavelet analysis. The results revealed that the common variability of air temperature and PM10 is dominated by temporal scales of 1?C8?days, time scales that are associated with the passage of weather events, such as cold fronts. 相似文献
73.
Climatic conditions that affect the interannual variability of Caribbean hurricanes are studied. Composite meteorological and oceanographic reanalysis fields are constructed for active and inactive seasons since 1979, and differences are calculated for spring and summer periods to provide guidance in statistical analysis. Predictors are extracted for areas exhibiting high contrast between active and inactive seasons, and intercomparisons are made. Zonal winds north of Venezuela exhibit westerly anomalies prior to active years, so coastal upwelling and the north Brazil current are diminished. Rainfall increases in the Orinoco River basin, creating a fresh warm plume north of Trinidad. The predictor time series are regressed onto an index of Caribbean hurricanes, and multivariate algorithms are formulated. It is found that atmospheric kinematic and convective predictors explain only ??20% of hurricane variance at 3?C5-month lead time. Subsurface ocean predictors offer higher levels of explained hurricane variance (42%) at 3?C5-month lead time, using 1?C200-m-depth-averaged temperatures in the east Pacific and southern Caribbean. We place the statistical results in a conceptual framework to better understand climatic processes anticipating Caribbean hurricanes. 相似文献
74.
Antonio Geraldo Ferreira Emilio Soria-Olivas Antonio Jos�� Serrano L��pez Ernesto Lopez-Baeza 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(1-2):263-279
This study describes the results of artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate net radiation (R n), at surface. Three ANN models were developed based on meteorological data such as wind velocity and direction, surface and air temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. A comparison has been made between the R n estimates provided by the neural models and two linear models (LM) that need solar incoming shortwave radiation measurements as input parameter. Both ANN and LM results were tested against in situ measured R n. For the LM ones, the estimations showed a root mean square error (RMSE) between 34.10 and 39.48?W?m?2 and correlation coefficient (R 2) between 0.96 and 0.97 considering both the developing and the testing phases of calculations. The estimates obtained by the ANN models showed RMSEs between 6.54 and 48.75?W?m?2 and R 2 between 0.92 and 0.98 considering both the training and the testing phases. The ANN estimates are shown to be similar or even better, in some cases, than those given by the LMs. According to the authors?? knowledge, the use of ANNs to estimate R n has not been discussed earlier, and based on the results obtained, it represents a formidable potential tool for R n prediction using commonly measured meteorological parameters. 相似文献
75.
Due to the chaotic and nonlinear nature of the atmospheric dynamics, it is known that small differences in the initial conditions (IC) of models can grow and affect the simulation evolution. In this study, we perform a quantitative diagnostic budget calculation of the various diabatic and dynamical contributions to the time evolution and spatial distribution of internal variability (IV) in simulations with the nested Canadian Regional Climate Model. We establish prognostic budget equations of the IV for the potential temperature and the relative vorticity fields. For both of these variables, the IV equations present similar terms, notably terms relating to the transport of IV by ensemble-mean flow and to the covariance of fluctuations acting on the gradient of the ensemble-mean state. We show the skill of these equations to diagnose the IV that took place in an ensemble of 20 3-month (summer season) simulations that differed only in their IC. Our study suggests that the dominant terms responsible for the large increase of IV are either the covariance term involving the potential temperature fluctuations and diabatic heating fluctuations, or the covariance of inter-member fluctuations acting upon ensemble-mean gradients. Our results also show that, on average, the third-order terms are negligible, but they can become important when the IV is large. 相似文献
76.
Some drought years over sub-Saharan west Africa (1972, 1977, 1984) have been previously related to a cross-equatorial Atlantic gradient pattern with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) south of 10°N and anomalously cold SSTs north of 10°N. This SST dipole-like pattern was not characteristic of 1983, the third driest summer of the twentieth century in the Sahel. This study presents evidence that the dry conditions that persisted over the west Sahel in 1983 were mainly forced by high Indian Ocean SSTs that were probably remanent from the strong 1982/1983 El Ni?o event. The synchronous Pacific impact of the 1982/1983 El Ni?o event on west African rainfall was however, quite weak. Prior studies have mainly suggested that the Indian Ocean SSTs impact the decadal-scale rainfall variability over the west Sahel. This study demonstrates that the Indian Ocean also significantly affects inter-annual rainfall variability over the west Sahel and that it was the main forcing for the drought over the west Sahel in 1983. 相似文献
77.
Variability patterns of Rossby wave source 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mar��lia Harumi Shimizu Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(3-4):441-454
Rossby waves (RW) propagation due to a local forcing is one of the mechanisms responsible for wave trains configurations known as teleconnections. The term teleconnection refers to anomalies patterns that are correlated in several regions of the world, causing large-scale changes in atmospheric waves patterns and temperature and precipitation regimes. The aim of teleconnections studies is to provide a better understanding of atmospheric variability and their mechanisms of action in order to identify patterns that can be tracked and predicted. The purpose of this study was to characterize seasonal and spatial variability of atmospheric RW sources. The RW source at 200?hPa was calculated for the four seasons with reanalysis data of zonal and meridional wind. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the RW sources were located on East Asia, North America, North Atlantic and Pacific. The main RW sources in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) were located over Intertropical, South Pacific, South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Extratropical regions were also identified, mainly to the south of Australia. The vortex stretching term (S1) and the advection of absolute vorticity by the divergent wind (S2) were analyzed to discuss the physical mechanisms for RW generation. In the NH, the source at East Asia in DJF changed to a sink in JJA, related to the dominance of S1 term in DJF and S2 term in JJA. In the SH, the vortex stretching term had the dominant contribution for RW source located to the south of Australia. The main forcing for RW sources at east of Australia was the advection of absolute vorticity by divergent flow. Over South America, both terms contributed to the source in DJF. The main modes of RW source variability were discussed by using empirical orthogonal functions analysis. RW variability was characterized by wave trains configurations in both hemispheres over regions of jet streams and storm tracks, associated with favorable and unfavorable areas for RW generation. 相似文献
78.
Uncertainties in simulating the seasonal mean atmospheric water cycle in Equatorial East Africa are quantified using 58 one-year-long experiments performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Tested parameters include physical parameterizations of atmospheric convection, cloud microphysics, planetary boundary layer, land-surface model and radiation schemes, as well as land-use categories (USGS vs. MODIS), lateral forcings (ERA-Interim and ERA40 reanalyses), and domain geometry (size and vertical resolution). Results show that (1) uncertainties, defined as the differences between the experiments, are larger than the biases; (2) the parameters exerting the largest influence on simulated rainfall are, in order of decreasing importance, the shortwave radiation scheme, the land-surface model, the domain size, followed by convective schemes and land-use categories; (3) cloud microphysics, lateral forcing reanalysis, the number of vertical levels and planetary boundary layer schemes appear to be of lesser importance at the seasonal scale. Though persisting biases (consisting of conditions that are too wet over the Indian Ocean and the Congo Basin and too dry over eastern Kenya) prevail in most experiments, several configurations simulate the regional climate with reasonable accuracy. 相似文献
79.
Christophe Cassou Marie Minvielle Laurent Terray Claire P��rigaud 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(1-2):19-39
The links between the observed variability of the surface ocean variables estimated from reanalysis and the overlying atmosphere decomposed in classes of large-scale atmospheric circulation via clustering are investigated over the Atlantic from 1958 to 2002. Daily 500?hPa geopotential height and 1,000?hPa wind anomaly maps are classified following a weather-typing approach to describe the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic atmospheric dynamics, respectively. The algorithm yields patterns that correspond in the extratropics to the well-known North Atlantic-Europe weather regimes (NAE-WR) accounting for the barotropic dynamics, and in the tropics to wind classes (T-WC) representing the alteration of the trades. 10-m wind and 2-m temperature (T2) anomaly composites derived from regime/wind class occurrence are indicative of strong relationships between daily large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean surface over the entire Atlantic basin. High temporal correlation values are obtained basin-wide at low frequency between the observed fields and their reconstruction by multiple linear regressions with the frequencies of occurrence of both NAE-WR and T-WC used as sole predictors. Additional multiple linear regressions also emphasize the importance of accounting for the strength of the daily anomalous atmospheric circulation estimated by the combined distances to all regimes centroids in order to reproduce the daily to interannual variability of the Atlantic ocean. We show that for most of the North Atlantic basin the occurrence of NAE-WR generally sets the sign of the ocean surface anomaly for a given day, and that the inter-regime distances are valuable predictors for the magnitude of that anomaly. Finally, we provide evidence that a large fraction of the low-frequency trends in the Atlantic observed at the surface over the last 50?years can be traced back, except for T2, to changes in occurrence of tropical and extratropical weather classes. All together, our findings are encouraging for the prospects of basin-scale ocean dynamical downscaling using a weather-typing approach to reconstruct forcing fields for high resolution ocean models (Part II) from coarse resolution climate models. 相似文献
80.
Y. Desnoyers J.-P. Chil��s D. Dubot N. Jeann��e J.-M. Idasiak 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(8):1031-1037
Geostatistics applied to radiological evaluation of nuclear premises provides sound methods to estimate radiological activities,
together with their uncertainty. Quantification and risk analysis of contaminated areas are initially performed by applying
geostatistical methods relying on the multi-Gaussian assumption. However, the application of the classical bi-Gaussian model
for disjunctive kriging proves sub-optimal due to the spatial structuring of high and low values. The beta model which pertains
to the class of Hermitian isofactorial models is potentially better suited to radiological evaluation as it allows a continuous
evolution from a mosaic to a pure diffusive model. In the test case, disjunctive kriging estimates are obtained by applying
in turn the beta model and the pure diffusive model. The comparison of estimation outcomes shows rather limited differences,
primarily located in and around the homogeneous contaminated areas. 相似文献