Addressing sources of uncertainty in runoff projections for a data scarce catchment in the Ecuadorian Andes     

Jean-François Exbrayat  Wouter Buytaert  Edison Timbe  David Windhorst  Lutz Breuer 《Climatic change》2014,125(2):221-235

Future climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) predict an acceleration of the global hydrological cycle throughout the 21st century in response to human-induced rise in temperatures. However, projections of GCMs are too coarse in resolution to be used in local studies of climate change impacts. To cope with this problem, downscaling methods have been developed that transform climate projections into high resolution datasets to drive impact models such as rainfall-runoff models. Generally, the range of changes simulated by different GCMs is considered to be the major source of variability in the results of such studies. However, the cascade of uncertainty in runoff projections is further elongated by differences between impact models, especially where robust calibration is hampered by the scarcity of data. Here, we address the relative importance of these different sources of uncertainty in a poorly monitored headwater catchment of the Ecuadorian Andes. Therefore, we force 7 hydrological models with downscaled outputs of 8 GCMs driven by the A1B and A2 emission scenarios over the 21st century. Results indicate a likely increase in annual runoff by 2100 with a large variability between the different combinations of a climate model with a hydrological model. Differences between GCM projections introduce a gradually increasing relative uncertainty throughout the 21st century. Meanwhile, structural differences between applied hydrological models still contribute to a third of the total uncertainty in late 21st century runoff projections and differences between the two emission scenarios are marginal.  相似文献   

Retention of uranium in complexly altered zircon: An example from Bancroft,Ontario     

Lutz Nasdala  John M. Hanchar  Dieter Rhede  Allen K. Kennedy  Tamás Váczi 《Chemical Geology》2010,269(3-4):290-300

Mesoproterozoic (~ 1050 Ma; Stenian) zircon crystals from the Saranac Prospect, Bancroft, Ontario, contain up to ~ 1 wt.% U and ~ 0.15 wt.% Th and, correspondingly, they are for the most part extensively radiation-damaged (calculated total α-doses 2.3?35.3 × 10¹⁸/g). The crystals show textures of complex, intense chemical alteration that is attributed to multiple, low-T replacement events along fluid-controlled reaction fronts. Centers of crystals appear totally replaced; the primary zoning is virtually erased and the material has high porosity and numerous inclusions. Interior regions surrounding the central reworked areas still exhibit primary igneous-type zoning; in those regions the alteration emanates from fractures and then follows the more radiation-damaged growth zones. Altered areas are typically recognized by their high porosity, low BSE intensity, and deficient analytical totals. Those regions often have lost a significant fraction of their radiogenic Pb. They are in general somewhat depleted in Zr, Si, and U, and are notably enriched in Ca and Fe. Element maps reveal elevated concentrations of Al and Y within filled fractures. Our observations indicate that the fluid-driven ion exchange is mainly controlled by the accessibility of micro-areas with elevated levels of radiation damage to transporting fluids via “fast pathways”. Most importantly, there is apparent Zr?Si?U equilibrium between initially existing and newly formed zircon. The retention of U after the chemical replacement (94 ± 14% relative to the original U content in the respective zones) does not significantly fall below the retention of two major cations Zr (95 ± 4%) and Si (95 ± 2%). In spite of the partially extreme hydrothermal alteration overprinting, the original U zoning in the crystals is well preserved. These observations suggest that preferential chemical leaching of U from zircon is clearly not a general feature of this mineral. This in turn seems to question the general validity of hydrothermal experiments to low-T, fluid-driven alteration of zircon in geological environments. The observed apparent immobility of U may affect the interpretation of U?Pb discordance in zircon, and the performance assessment of this mineral as potential waste form for actinides.  相似文献